The Florida Panthers: Dominant Once Again When It Mattered Most
Team Del Genio does not always have a Game of the Year in a sport. The substance needs to match the moment in creating substantial value relative to the odds and lines that will be installed by the oddsmakers. When we make a declaration regarding a Game of the Year, we need to have the courage of our convictions that we are going to be right much more often than getting it wrong. Yet after watching Game 5 in the Stanley Cup finals, we felt very confident that the series would end in Game 6, so we made it our NHL Game of the Year.The Florida Panthers had demonstrated they are the better team in the series. If not for losing two of the three games in this series that went to overtime, they would have already raised Lord Stanley’s Cup for the second straight season. They had scored 23 goals in the five games in this series and had given up only 16 goals. Edmonton’s problems started with their goaltender as they had given up four or more goals in four straight games, and they had allowed five goals in three of those four games. Head coach Kris Knoblauch turned to Calvin Pickard in Game 5 after only giving up one goal in relief in Game 4. He had won all seven starts in the playoffs this year. But the career backup goalie gave up four goals on eighteen shots in the losing effort. Now Knoblauch was left with two tarnished goalies lacking in confidence so he was likely to go back to Stuart Skinner who has a 2.99 goals-against average and a .891 save percentage in the postseason. It was tough to foresee Edmonton simply zig-zagging back for a victory to force a Game 7 given these circumstances. The season-ending injury to Zach Hyman was devastating for the Oilers. He led all players in the playoffs last year with 25 points. Edmonton missed his offensive production as well as his defensive play. His absence had contributed to Knoblauch resorting to a five-man rotation for their pair defensive lines which was challenging their endurance since they were using less than a three-line rotation.The Oilers were also being dominated in depth by the Florida third line led by Brad Marchand. The Panthers had outscored Edmonton by a 5-0 margin with their third line anchored by Marchand going into Game 6. The Panthers were returning home razor sharp with an opportunity to win a back-to-back Stanley Cup title where they had won eighteen of their last twenty-eight games at home when the oddsmakers installed them as a money line favorite up to -150. They had won eighteen of their last twenty-four games at home against opponents winning 60% to 75% of their games. Being at home was important for head coach Paul Maurice since he gets to make the final line change. His team was doing a great job of frustrating Connor McDavid who finally scored his first goal in this series on Saturday. Maurice was going to get his preferred lineup on the ice against McDavid in Game 6. Florida had a significant edge with their goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky who is playing in his third straight Stanley Cup finals and had the confidence of being the winning goaltender last year. He had a .924 save percentage in his last four games at home in this postseason. The Stanley Cup was going to be in the building Tuesday night. The Panthers had won Game 7 at home against the Oilers last year, and they have too much firepower for Edmonton once again this year. Florida quickly took the lead once again in Game 6 when Sam Reinhart scored the opening goal at the 4:36 minute mark of the first period. Matthew Tkachuk scored a crushing second goal for the Panthers with just 47 seconds left in the first period which made Edmonton go into the locker room already trailing by two goals. Reinhart scored his second goal at the 17:31 mark in the second period to take a seemingly insurmountable 3-0 deficit. Knoblauch felt the need to get an extra skater on the ice with less than ten minutes left in the game, and they gave Reinhart the opportunity to score two more empty netters before the Oilers finally scored with less than five minutes. Yet that was all Edmonton could muster in a 5-1 loss which awarded the Stanley Cup once again to Florida. Skinner gave up three goals on the 23 shots he faced. Bobrovsky was fantastic by stopping 28 of the 29 shots he faced. McDavid was held pointless again when Maurice had the final shift decision. Our patience was rewarded as we waited for the right time to shove our chips all-in. Yet our assessment of where the series was going was accurate, and those are the times when we need to take advantage of the oddsmakers. Good luck - Team Del Genio.
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