June Starting Pitching NL Overachievers

As the All-Star Break approaches, a more complete statistical snapshot is available for most starting pitchers. Here are four National League starters that continue to look like overachievers for the 2025 season and should be considered with caution for the rest of the season. 

David Peterson – New York Mets

David Peterson isn’t a bad option on the mound but with a 2.98 ERA pitching for a popular Mets team with a great home record, his valuation is climbing a bit too high. Peterson has a 2.22 ERA at home this season and he has benefited from three of his last four home starts coming against some of the wort teams in baseball. Peterson has allowed at least three runs in each of his last three road starts and the Mets have slipped in June to fall back into a tight NL East race with the Phillies while opening the door for the team to be caught in the competitive NL Wild Card picture. The July schedule is rather difficult for the Mets and Peterson has rather average numbers with a 7.7 K/9 and a 3.1 BB/9. Peterson has been fortunate to allow only six home runs in over 90 innings this season to keep his overall season line in check. Peterson is a great groundball producer, but his current 57 percent groundball rate is well above his typical rate with a career average closer to 51 percent. The Mets are just 1-4 in Peterson’s last five starts and 3-6 in his last nine even while he has been a hefty favorite in several home starts after the Mets won five of his first six starts early in the season. 

Freddy Peralta – Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers are closing the gap with the Cubs in the NL Central race and looking like a viable NL playoff threat. There have been suggestions that Milwaukee might trade Peralta in the coming weeks even with a favorable team option available for next season, looking to maximize its return. While it wouldn’t be a popular decision for fans with Peralta being a solid starter since 2018 for the Brewers, the numbers suggest he has been getting away with better results than he deserves this season and last. Peralta has the lowest K/9 of his career this season and his FIP of 3.90 is a run higher than his 2.90 ERA, which would be his second best in eight MLB seasons. Peralta has stranded almost 85 percent of his baserunners in 93 innings in 2025, a full 10 percent better than his career strand rate as a lot of things have gone right this season. Peralta has been pulled prior to six innings in five of his last eight starts with an eye on keeping his numbers strong and with Jacob Misiorowski dominating, Jose Quintana pitching well, and Brandon Woodruff nearing a return from the IL, Peralta might not be in Milwaukee’s postseason rotation plans. 

Jameson Taillon – Chicago Cubs

With seven wins pitching for a first place team Jameson Taillon has held a steady presence in the Chicago rotation. His FIP of 5.17 is the second highest of any qualified starter in the National League however, while he has the highest HR/9 in that group, at nearly 2.1 with 21 home runs surrendered in 16 starts. Warm summer temperatures are Wrigley Field are not likely to help his cause with just a 33 percent groundball rate this season and August has been Taillon’s worst month in his career splits. Taillon has a 5.56 road ERA this season and posted far worse numbers in June to erase good results in April and May to start the season. If Chicago is serious about holding off the surging teams chasing them in the NL Central race, finding a replacement for Taillon in the rotation would be wise. 

Randy Vasquez – San Diego Padres

In 20 starts last season Vasquez had a 4.87 ERA with a 4.70 FIP but this season he has escaped with a 3.60 ERA in 16 starts despite a 5.51 FIP. Vasquez has a 5.1 K/9 next to a 4.2 BB/9 this season but he has found ways to compete with a .235 BABIP and an 83 percent strand rate. Petco Park has helped his cause with a 3.14 home ERA, and more innings pitched at home this season than on the road so far. Only twice in his last seven starts have the Padres allowed Vasquez to pitch more than five innings as Mike Shildt seems to know what the numbers also are suggesting; that the strong run for Vasquez in May and June is a mirage and his results are a time bomb that are likely to explode in future starts.