June Starting Pitching AL Overachievers

As the All-Star Break approaches, a more complete statistical snapshot is available for most starting pitchers. Here are four American League starters that continue to look like overachievers for the 2025 season and should be considered with caution the rest of the season. 

Drew Rasmssen – Tampa Bay Rays

Few teams have been hotter in the last month than the Rays and Rasmussen has benefited, picking up six wins in his last eight starts. Rasmussen had a dominant scoreless run over four starts from mid-May to early June and that run will keep his numbers looking good for the foreseeable future. A 3.45 FIP sits next to his 2.45 ERA and with a 7.7 K/9, Rasmussen isn’t an elite strikeout pitcher. Rasmussen has enjoyed the Rays temporary home ballpark in Tampa this season with a 2.16 ERA at Steinbrenner Field but incredibly over 69 percent of his innings this season have been at home with Tampa Bay having a home-heavy first half schedule. A greater proportion of his future starts are likely to be on the road while his season BABIP of .242 with an 84 percent strand rate will be difficult to maintain. Last season Rasmussen had a .333 BABIP while stranding fewer than 68 percent of his baserunners. 

Jose Berrios – Toronto Blue Jays

Now approaching four years since Berrios was traded from the Twins to the Blue Jays and getting a significant long term contract, the deal is looking better for Toronto has Berrios has shaken off a tough 2022 season and pitched decently the past two and a half seasons. Since 2023 Berrios has a 4.34 FIP and a 3.60 ERA and his strikeout rate and walk rate are far worse than his best years in Minnesota. Berrios has improved the gap between his home and road splits, but a lot of the improvement boils down to leaving runners on base, with an 81 percent strand rate last season and a nearly 80 percent strand rate this season. Part of that has been a decent Toronto bullpen but there has been an element of luck keeping Berrios looking like a slightly above average starter since the start of last season when in reality, his stuff suggests he is close to the league-average in most areas. As a recognizable two-time All-Star with a reputation for great home results, Berrios is likely to be overpriced in his Rogers Centre starts the rest of the season. 

Jacob deGrom – Texas Rangers

After flirting with a no-hitter last week and posting a glowing 8-2 record with a 2.08 ERA, deGrom is going to start to be valued similar to how he was in his time with the Mets before all the injuries have mostly kept him off the mound in recent seasons. At his best, deGrom was the best pitcher in baseball, but he is now nearly 38 years old and having battled through multiple injuries. His FIP is nearly a full run higher than his 2.08 ERA and while an 8.9 K/9 is nothing to scoff at, his career K/9 is 10.8. So far in 2025 deGrom has enjoyed a .231 BABIP and an absurd over 87 percent strand rate, with both figures way off his career norms even in his best seasons with the Mets. While deGrom can certainly continue to be an effective pitcher that can give the Rangers a second half spark, he is going to be consistently overpriced following a 5-0 run in his last five starts for Texas, a run that has included him pitching against the Nationals, White Sox, Pirates, and Orioles, also known as four of the worst seven teams in baseball by record. 

Gavin Williams – Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland is a difficult team to fade with great potential in the bullpen and a great track record in close games, but Gavin Williams is emerging as something resembling a staff ace in his third season and he isn’t likely to live up to that billing. Williams has a 4.61 FIP next to a 3.68 ERA in 16 starts, basically the opposite of what happened to him in 16 starts last season when he had a 4.86 ERA and a 3.67 FIP. He has had more groundballs this season and more stranded runners even with a dangerous walk rate at 5.0 BB/9. Williams does have nearly identical home and road splits, but he has thrown almost 12 more home innings so far this season. A concern is also that Williams has not made more than 16 starts in a season in his career as he will likely reach a career high in MLB innings in his next start. A 1st round pick in 2021 Williams hasn’t blossomed into a dominant strikeout producer and he has likely been a bit fortunate in his career in terms of home runs allowed. With a couple of recent scoreless outings and four quality starts since late May, Williams is likely at his peak, and he has been helped by six of his last nine starting efforts being at home. In June Williams has a 2.57 ERA in five starts but he has a 4.64 FIP with a strikeout-to-walk ratio well below 2:1 as a correction is likely on the horizon.