by Wayne Root
Friday, Jun 27, 2025Based on my research, here are some potential examples of undervalued home underdogs in the 2025 MLB season, along with the factors that might make them undervalued:
Teams Identified as Undervalued Home Underdogs:
1. Kansas City Royals:
Why:
The Royals are exceeding expectations and injecting volatility into the betting landscape.
They have a rising star in Bobby Witt Jr.
Supporting Data:
Home underdogs are winning at a striking 45.9% rate.
2. Boston Red Sox:
Why:
Strategic signings like Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler show promise, overshadowing durability concerns.
Prospects like Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell could also change the game mid-season.
Supporting Data:
Home underdogs are winning at a striking 45.9% rate.
3. Seattle Mariners:
Why:
The Mariners have been especially reliable covering the spread at home.
Supporting Data:
Home underdogs are winning at a striking 45.9% rate.
4. Toronto Blue Jays
Why:
Consider betting on home underdogs like Toronto for better moneyline value
Supporting Data:
Divisional road underdogs as they offer value against public perception and favorites
5. New York Mets
Why:
The Mets have been especially reliable covering the spread at home.
Supporting Data:
Home underdogs are winning at a striking 45.9% rate.
General Factors Contributing to Undervaluation:
Public Bias:
The public loves betting favorites, especially popular teams like the Yankees or Dodgers.
Sportsbooks know this and may inflate the lines on those teams, creating value on underdogs.
Strong Matchup Value:
Smart bettors target underdogs with strong matchup value and lower
Underrated Pitching:
Strong pitchers on underdog teams offer opportunities for straight-up wins despite the team's overall.
Better Bullpen:
Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings can be profitable.
Market Misperceptions:
Teams with underestimated projections highlight market inaccuracies in win forecasts.
Mid-season Performance Shifts:
Player performance shifts can drastically alter the betting landscape for underdogs.
Home/Road Splits:
Some pitchers perform significantly better at home, which may not be fully reflected in the betting line.
Reverse Line Movement:
Keep an eye on overnight lines and reverse line movement, which may signal that sharp bettors see an edge.
Strategies for Identifying Undervalued Home Underdogs:
Focus on Home Underdogs:
Home underdogs boast a win rate of 45.9%, defying typical betting market trends.
Analyze Pitcher Matchups:
A ground ball pitcher with good command is less likely to get shelled.
Digging into how a pitcher's style fits the weather and park can uncover value the books can't fully adjust for.
Leverage Market Trends:
Use market analysis to pinpoint underdog value.
Check Splits:
Check splits on ESPN or Baseball-Reference for day/night, stadium, and especially home vs away.
Monitor Bullpen Ratings:
Look for money line underdog teams with better bullpen.
By considering these factors and monitoring team performance throughout the season, you can potentially identify undervalued home underdogs and capitalize on profitable betting opportunities.
