by Kyle Hunter
Friday, Jun 27, 2025It’s late June and we’re nearly halfway through the MLB season. It’s a long grind, and bettors have to be patient betting the bases. Let’s take a look at four key regression signs to watch for in the coming weeks/months.
- Tampa Bay Rays Offense- The Tampa Bay Rays offense is first in the majors in weighted on base average in the past 30 days. Tampa Bay’s offense is better than almost anyone expected it would be, but they are going to regress toward the mean. The key here is Tampa Bay has a whopping .342 batting average on balls in play in the last 30 days. The league average is about .290, and the second highest BABIP in the last 30 days is .326. The Rays offense might be good, but they aren’t this good!
- Pittsburgh Pirates Pitching- The Pittsburgh Pirates have the sixth best ERA in the majors in the last 30 days. They are carrying a ridiculously low BABIP allowed though. Opponents have a batting average on balls in play of just .241 in the last 30 days. The second lowest BABIP allowed is .258 during that same time period. The Pirates pitching staff will regress toward the mean.
- New York Mets Offense With Runners in Scoring Position (Positive Regression) The Mets offense has been dreadful with runners in scoring position in the last 30 days. The Mets have a .220 batting average with runners in scoring position, but they have a brutal .244 batting average on balls in play in these spots in the last 30 days. The Mets offense is good, and I think they will get back on track in key spots in the coming weeks.
- LA Angels Bullpen ERA- The Angels bullpen has been lights out in the last month. The Angels bullpen has been a major weakness for years, and I still believe they are far weaker than recent statistics appear. The Angels have a 2.77 bullpen ERA in the last 30 days. Their FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is 3.91. They have an extremely low batting average on balls in play allowed of just .240 during this time. Expect the Angels bullpen numbers to get worse.
