Expert Sports Picks and Analysis from Al McMordie

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 05/03/2025

Saturday, May 03, 2025

The Saturday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL action.The 151st running of the Kentucky Derby headlines the sporting events of the day. The Run for the Roses is the 12th race at Churchill Downs and has a start time of 6:57 PM ET.The National Basketball Association continues its playoff season with one game. The Denver Nuggets host the Los Angeles Clippers in the seventh game of their best-of-seven series on TNT/truTV/Max at 7:35 p.m. ET as a 1.5-point favorite with the total set at 206 (all odds from DraftKings).The National Hockey League playoffs continue with one game on its slate. The Colorado Avalanche travel to Dallas to take on the Stars in Game 7 of their best-of-seven series on ABC at 8:10 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The New York Yankees play at home against the Tampa Bay Rays at 1:05 p.m. ET as a -180 money-line favorite with a total of 9.5. The Houston Astros play in Chicago against the White Sox at 2:10 p.m. ET as a -250 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The New York Mets are in St. Louis to face the Cardinals at 2:15 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The Toronto Blue Jays are home against the Cleveland Guardians at 3:07 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 4:05 p.m. ET. The San Francisco Giants host the Colorado Rockies as a -270 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The San Diego Padres visit Pittsburgh to battle the Pirates as a -118 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. Two more MLB games start at 4:10 p.m. ET. The Boston Red Sox play at home against the Minnesota Twins on FS1 as a -118 money-line favorite with a total of 9.5. The Miami Marlins are home against the Athletics as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Philadelphia Phillies host the Arizona Diamondbacks at 6:05 p.m. ET as a -125 money-line favorite with a total of 9.5. The Cincinnati Reds play at home against the Washington Nationals at 6:40 p.m. ET as a -185 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Seattle Mariners play in Texas against the Rangers at 7:05 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Chicago Cubs are in Milwaukee to challenge the Brewers at 7:10 p.m. ET with both teams priced as a -110 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5.Two MLB games are featured on Fox’s regional coverage at 7:15 p.m. ET. The Baltimore Orioles are home against the Kansas City Royals as a -112 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers travel to Atlanta to face the Braves as a -115 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Detroit Tigers play in Los Angeles against the Angels at 9:38 p.m. ET as a -180 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.Matchweek 35 in the English Premier League continues with four matches. Aston Villa hosts Fulham on the USA Network at 7:30 a.m. ET as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Two EPL matches begin at 10:00 a.m. ET. Everton plays at home against Ipswich Town on the USA Network as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Leicester City is home against Southampton as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Arsenal hosts Bournemouth on NBC at 12:30 p.m. ET as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL Previews and Odds - 05/02/2025

by Big Al Staff

Friday, May 02, 2025

The Friday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association continues its playoff season with one game. The Golden State Warriors host the Houston Rockets on ESPN at 9:05 p.m. ET. The Warriors are up 3-2 heading into the sixth game of this best-of-seven series. Golden State is a 5-point favorite, with the total set at 203.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The National Hockey League playoffs continue with one game on its slate. The St. Louis Blues play at home against the Winnipeg Jets on TBS/truTV/Max at 9:40 p.m. ET. The Jets hold a 3-2 series lead going into Game 6 of this best-of-seven series. Winning is a -118 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5.Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Cincinnati Reds are home against the Washington Nationals at 6:10 p.m. ET as a -170 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The San Diego Padres travel to Pittsburgh to play the Pirates on Apple TV+ at 6:40 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Philadelphia Phillies are home against the Arizona Diamondbacks at 6:45 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 9.Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:05 p.m. ET. The Baltimore Orioles host the Kansas Royals as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The New York Yankees play at home against the Tampa Bay Rays as a -218 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Toronto Blue Jays are home against the Cleveland Guardians at 7:07 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two MLB games start at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Boston Red Sox host the Minnesota Twins as a -112 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The Athletics play in Miami against the Marlins. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in Atlanta to take on the Braves at 7:15 p.m. ET as a -175 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Houston Astros visit Chicago to play the White Sox at 7:40 p.m. ET as a -238 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Seattle Mariners play in Texas against the Rangers at 8:05 p.m. ET as a -120 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Chicago Cubs are in Milwaukee to battle the Brewers on Apple TV+ as a -118 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The New York Mets travel to St. Louis to play the Cardinals at 8:15 p.m. ET as a -122 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Detroit Tigers play in Los Angeles against the Angels at 9:38 p.m. ET as a -170 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The San Francisco Giants play at home against the Colorado Rockies at 10:15 p.m. ET as a -258 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Matchweek 35 in the English Premier League begins with one match. Manchester City is Wolverhampton at 3:00 p.m. ET as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3.5.

2025 Kentucky Derby Preview

by Al McMordie

Thursday, May 01, 2025

The 2025 Kentucky Derby will be very similar to the ones run in the last three years with one big exception: Six-time winning trainer Bob Baffert will be back. The 72-year-old Hall of Fame conditioner -- suspended after a doping violation in the 2021 Derby -- will have two horses in the big event, scheduled to go as race 12 on Saturday at approximately 6:57 pm. But in addition to Baffert, there are some interesting story lines which we will discuss by previewing several of the favorites and longshots: #8 Journalism - This Mike McCarthy-trained son of Curlin should be a deserving favorite come post time. Journalism ships in from California where he beat a number of Bob Baffert Derby hopefuls, including the two Baffert runners that are in this race. And although Journalism hasn't run outside of the Golden State, McCarthy has previously shown that he can ship across the country and still have his runners in peak form. In addition, the speed in this race is almost all to the inside of his #8 post and that should also help him as he comes with his late kick after the speed has mostly collapsed. There are three knocks against him however 1) he has been running against very small fields in California, so no telling how he'll do with 19 other horses to deal with, 2) Jockey Umberto Rispoli is a relative newcomer to North American dirt racing, and 3) Journalism won his last race and that hasn't bode well in the Derby in recent years. His morning line is 3-1 but you probably won't get that come post time making him a win bet that you might want to avoid. #17 Sandman - Here is a runner that seems to be improving at the right time and may fire his best shot on Saturday. This son of leading sire Tapit won a major prep race last time out -- the Arkansas Derby -- with a strong late kick that could serve him well in the Derby. He is trained by a leading conditioner in Mark Casse and will be piloted by one of the top jockeys in Jose Ortiz. But other than that Ark Derby score, Sandman has run in four other Graded Stakes -- two as a 2YO and two this year -- and couldn't win any of them, and in fact was beaten by several of the horses he is running against today. And since he won his last race, he could be due for a letdown as we've seen the pattern go in the last five runnings of this race. One more reason to perhaps fade this one: He is partly owned by a major social media influencer -- Griffin Johnson who has over 10 million followers on TikTok -- and this will, for no other reason, drive down his price from his 6-1 morning line. #1 Citizen Bull and #4 Rodriguez - These are the two Baffert runners in the race and not only do they share the same trainer, but they are also owned by the exact same groups. As is the case with most Baffert runners, both of these horses have a ton of early speed. But since the ownership and trainer are the same, the connections of Citizen Bull and Rodriguez will likely not let their two horses get into a speed duel with one another. Since Citizen Bull has the dreaded #1 post position (no horse has won the Derby from there since Ferdinand in 1986) he is the one that will likely gun it and go straight to the front. Citizen Bull has won each of his four races with that tactic and when he doesn't get to the front early, he doesn't win. He won the Breeders Cup Juvenile last November but that doesn't usually bode well in the Derby either. It's highly unlikely that he can get to the front and stay there for the entire 1 1/4 miles. Rodriguez perhaps offers a more compelling option. If the son of Authentic can stalk the early runners from his #4 post position without getting into trouble, then he just might have the talent to get a jump on the closers as they turn for home. And his rider, Mike Smith, is one of the best ever and can still get it done even though he is approaching 60 years in age. At 12-1, Rodriguez looks like a live longshot. #18 Sovereignty - This Bill Mott-trained son of Into Mischief seems to check a lot of boxes. He was flying home late in the Florida Derby, finishing second to winner Tappan Street who had to pull out of the Derby after suffering a training injury. The 18 post should suit this horse just fine as he should be able to stay out of trouble while all of the inside speed horses fight for position going into the first turn. The faster the early fractions, the better it is for Sovereignty, whose owners are Godolphin Racing. Godolphin has won just about everything in horse racing -- all over the world -- but the one big prize that has eluded them is the Kentucky Derby. Mott's regular #1 dirt rider, Junior Alvarado, will be on board and although he is a veteran of many racing victories, he has never won any of the three "Classics" (KY Derby, Preakness, Belmont) and is considered a notch below the best riders in the country. Sovereignty will likely be no worse than the third betting favorite. #6 Admire Daytona and #7 Luxor Cafe - Japanese entrants in the Derby are becoming an annual occurrence, and this year the two runners from the land of the Rising Sun are right next to each other in the starting gate. Try as they might, a Japanese horse has never won America's most famous race although last year an outstanding 3YO named Forever Young came very close, finishing 3rd by a head. Both of these runners are talented, but not likely as good as Forever Young -- who has gone on to win eight of 11 career races -- so neither of these two will likely be among the favorites. But if you must bet on a Japanese horse this Saturday, you're probably better off with #7, Luxor Cafe, as he has beaten Admire Daytona head-to-head on two occasions. He's 15-1 morning line and you might just get that come post time. #14 Tiztastic - This son of Tiz the Law would be considered a rank outsider in this race if it weren't for his performance in the Louisiana Derby last time out. After some lackluster performances to begin 2025, often losing to other horses who are in here, Tiztastic exploded down the stretch in Louisiana in what was by far his most dominant race beating nine other runners. The victory also resulted in what was by far his highest speed figure which could mean that Tiztastic is due for a bounce, or setback on Saturday. Also, he is trained by Steve Asmussen which is good and bad. Good because nobody has won more races in North America than the 59-year-old Hall of Fame conditioner but bad because no trainer has a worse record in the Kentucky Derby (0 for 36).

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, MLB, NHL and EPL Previews and Odds - 05/01/2025

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, May 01, 2025

The Thursday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association continues its playoff season with two Game 6s on TNT/truTV/Max. The Detroit Pistons, trailing 3-2 in the series, host the New York Knicks at 7:30 p.m. ET as a 1.5-point favorite with the total set at 212.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The Los Angeles Clippers, trailing by a 3-2 margin, play at home against the Denver Nuggets at 10:10 p.m. ET as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 211.5.The National Hockey League playoffs continue with four Game 6s on its slate. The Ottawa Senators, trailing by a 3-2 margin, are home against the Toronto Maple Leafs on TBS/Max at 7:10 p.m. ET as a -118 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Vegas Golden Knights travel to Minnesota to attempt to close out their series with the Wild on ESPN at 7:40 p.m. ET as a -166 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Colorado Avalanche, trailing 3-2 in the series, host the Dallas Stars on TBS/Max at 9:40 p.m. ET as a -180 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Edmonton Oilers play at home against the Los Angeles Kings as they attempt to close out this series on ESPN at 10:10 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5.Major League Baseball has 11 games on its schedule. The Pittsburgh Pirates are home against the Chicago Cubs at 12:35 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Cincinnati Reds host the St. Louis Cardinals at 12:40 p.m. ET as a -122 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. Three MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:10 p.m. ET. The Cleveland Guardians play at home against the Minnesota Twins as a -112 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The New York Mets are home against the Arizona Diamondbacks as a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Tampa Bay Rays host the Kansas City Royals as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Milwaukee Brewers play in Chicago against the White Sox at 2:10 p.m. ET as a -180 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Texas Rangers play at home against the Athletics as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Philadelphia Phillies are home against the Washington Nationals at 6:45 p.m. ET as a -166 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Toronto Blue Jays host the Boston Red Sox at 7:07 p.m. ET as a -112 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Detroit Tigers are in Los Angeles to take on the Angels at 9:38 p.m. ET as a -122 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The San Francisco Giants play at home against the Colorado Rockies at 9:45 p.m. ET as a -245 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5.Matchweek 34 in the English Premier League concludes with one match on the USA Network at 2:30 p.m. ET. Nottingham Forest is home against Brentford as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5.

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs Figueiredo

by Will Rogers

Thursday, May 01, 2025

The UFC visits Des Moines on Saturday. Both the biggest bouts are expected to be lopsided but there are some other competitive fights on the card. I've taken a closer look at one of those and provided a pick. Every so often, its good to get caught up on the current champions in each division, as well as the pound-for-pound rankings. I've done so at the bottom of this article. I'll be back in a few days to preview UFC 315, which features Jack Della Maddalena and Belal Muhammad, fighting for the welterweight title in Montreal. The Main Event The Main Event sees 33-year old Cory Sandhagen (17-5) laying -550 against 37-year old Deiveson Figueiredo (24-4). In addition to being the younger fighter, Sandhagen has a significant height and reach advantage. Sandhagen lost his last fight but that was against Umar Nurmagomedov, who was undefeated at the time. Prior to that, Sandhagen had won three straight. Likewise, Figueiredo also saw a 3-fight winning streak snapped in his last fight, a decision loss to Petr Yan. Sandhagen will likely be too much for his older opponent. However, I wouldn't want to be laying -550. Though getting a little long in the tooth, Figueiredo is still no slouch. The Co-Main Event The Co-Main features Bo Nickal (7-0) as a -340 favorite against Reinier de Ridder. An elite wrestler, Nickal has yet to be challenged. He could be up for a tougher than expected fight on Saturday. After three straight victories, two by submission and one by TKO, de Ridder is now 19-2. Having to lose more than 36 pounds in less than a week could potentially take a toll on the favorite. Nickal weighed in at 222.6 pounds on Tuesday - the middleweight non-champion fight limit is 186. The PickThe third last fight of the night pits Daniel Rodriguez (18-5) up against Santiago Ponzinibbio (30-8). The line is currently -110 each way. Both these guys are 38-years old. But that won't stop them from bringing it. Each will be aggressive and coming forward. Their styles suit each other well and it will make for an entertaining bout. Ponzinibbio, who owns three "Performance of the Night" awards in his UFC tenure, comes into this fight on the heels of a third-round TKO of Carlston Harris. Ponzinibbio said this of Saturday: "It’s going to be a pretty fun fight. He’s a striker like me. … It’s going to be a fun fight for the fans for sure." My Pick: The "Argentine Dagger" is off a far more impressive win. I see him as a more-rounded fighter. Rodriguez also won his last fight but his victory came by split decision, against a fighter (Morono) who Ponzinibbio had previous knocked out. Rodriguez opened as a favorite but Ponzinibbio could easily close as one. Go with Santiago Ponzinibbio. Champions In Each DivisionFLYWEIGHT125 lb (56.82 kg)Alexandre Pantoja (29-5)"THE CANNIBAL"BANTAMWEIGHT134 lb (60.91 kg)Merab Dvalishvili (19-4)"THE MACHINE"FEATHERWEIGHT145 lb (65.91 kg)Alexander Volkanovski (27-4)"THE GREAT"LIGHTWEIGHT155 lb (70.45 kg)Islam Makhachev (27-1)WELTERWEIGHT169 lb (76.82 kg)Belal Muhammad (24-3)"REMEMBER THE NAME"MIDDLEWEIGHT185 lb (84.09 kg)Dricus Du Plessis (23-2)"STILLKNOCKS"LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT205 lb (93.18 kg)Magomed Ankalaev (21-1-1)HEAVYWEIGHT238 lb (108.18 kg)Jon Jones (28-1)"BONES"WOMEN'S STRAWWEIGHT115 lb (52.27 kg)Zhang Weili (26-3)"MAGNUM"WOMEN'S FLYWEIGHT125 lb (56.82 kg)Valentina Shevchenko (24-4-1)"BULLET"WOMEN'S BANTAMWEIGHT135 lb (61.36 kg)Julianna Peña (13-5)"THE VENEZUELAN VIXEN"MEN'S POUND-FOR-POUND RANKINGS1.Islam Makhachev2 Jon Jones3 Ilia Topuria4 Merab Dvalishvili5 Dricus Du Plessis6 Magomed Ankalaev7 Belal Muhammad8 Alex Pereira9 Alexander Volkanovski10 Alexandre Pantoja11 Tom Aspinall12 Max Holloway13 Sean O'Malley14 Charles Oliveira15 Arman Tsarukyan WOMEN'S POUND-FOR-POUND RANKINGS1 Valentina Shevchenko2 Zhang Weili3 Alexa Grasso4 Julianna Peña5 Manon Fiorot6 Erin Blanchfield7 Kayla Harrison8 Virna Jandiroba9 Raquel Pennington10 Rose Namajunas11 Tatiana Suarez12 Yan Xiaonan13 Natalia Silva14 Jéssica Andrade15 Maycee Barber

Is Nathan Eovaldi Poised for the Best Season in his Career?

by Hollywood Sports

Wednesday, Apr 30, 2025

Nathan Eovaldi closed out the month of April by getting the ball to make his seventh start of the season at home against the Athletics. He had a 2-2 record along with a 2.21 ERA and a .074 WHIP in his first six starts. The deeper sabermetrics confirmed his outstanding start as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 2.59 and 2.62 moving forward. The right-hander is relying less on his four-seam fastball that has lost a bit of its oomph and instead uses his splitter and curveball more which are good swing-and-miss pitches for him. The 35-year-old is a crafty veteran who throws four different pitchers to left-handed hitters and five different pitchers to right-handed hitters. Giving up the long-ball has been a problem in the past but he has served up only three gopher balls this season. The 0.74 home runs per nine innings is his lowest since matching that mark in 2021 — and the last time he gave up fewer homer runs was back in 2015. Eovaldi had struck out 38 batters and only issued three walks. His 27.1% strikeout rate is a career-high — and the 2.1% walk-rate is a career-low. He is combining this efficiency with a ground rate of 49.5% of all the batted balls against him. Last season, he was more effective at home for the Rangers where he enjoyed a 3.63 ERA along with a 0.98 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .211 in 16 starts as opposed to his 4.01 ERA along with a 1.27 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .251.Eovaldi continued his strong start to the season by allowing only one run in six innings of work. He gave up only six base hits — and he continued to rack up strikeouts while being stingy in issuing bases on balls. He struck out eight batters and did not walk a batter. He now has 46 strikeouts in 42 2/3 innings with a mere three bases-on-balls. Unfortunately, he left the game with the score tied at 1-1 before the Rangers’ bullpen let him down by giving up six runs in the top of the ninth inning in what was a 7-1 loss. Texas had been getting great pitching as they had not allowed more than three runs in five straight games. Their bullpen has been rock steady with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP before tonight’s game. After scoring 15 runs last night against the Athletics, the Rangers hitters could not support Eovaldi’s strong effort in this one. Eovaldi goes into May with a 2-2 record along with a 2.11 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP. He has enjoyed hot stretches throughout his career — but consistency has held him back from taking his game to the next level. His best season when it comes to ERA was in his rookie year in 2013 when he posted a 3.39 ERA in 106 1/3 innings. He registered his best WHIP last year for the Rangers with that 1.11 mark referenced above. There are still five months to go in the regular season, but Eovaldi has put himself in a position to post his best numbers in his 13-year career.Best of luck — Frank.

Jameson Taillon is Pitching Better than his 4.01 ERA

by Team Del Genio

Wednesday, Apr 30, 2025

Jameson Taillon completed his sixth start of the season last Sunday at home against the Philadelphia Phillies for Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN. He went into that start with a 1-1 record with a 4.73 era and a 1.20 whip in his previous five starts. The right-hander got hit hard in his opening start of the season at Arizona in March when he gave up six runs in 4 1/3 innings. In his four starts since, he has posted a 3.23 era and a 1.03 whip. What was perhaps most encouraging is that opposing hitters are only producing a hard-hit rate of the batted balls in play against him in 27.2% of their batted balls which is a career-low for Taillon. He had a 12-8 record last season with the Cubs with a 3.27 era and a 1.13 whip, and his recent four starts are right in line with those numbers.We backed Taillon and the Chicago Cubs in our National League Game of the Month against the Phillies’ Aaron Nola. The Cubs lost the game although it is difficult to place much of the blame on Taillon. The 33-year-old gave up only one earned run in seven innings of work. He only struck out two batters yet he scattered just five base hits and did not walk a batter. He left the game with the score tied at 1-1 before the game went to extra innings. Philadelphia scored twice in the top of the tenth inning and won the game by a 3-1 score. Taillon ends the month with a 1-1 record with a 4.01 era and a 1.10 whip. Take away that subpar opening effort in March against the Diamondbacks and Taillon has a 2.76 era and a 0.96 whip in his previous five starts. The hard-hit rate for the balls put into play against him dropped to 26.0% after the start against the Phillies. In his three starts at home at Wrigley Field, Taillon has a 2.50 era and a 0.89 whip. Looking forward, the lack of strikeouts from Taillon in that start warrants further attention, although he has never been a dynamic strikeout pitcher. His best year for strikeout rate was in 2021 with the New York Yankees when he struck out 23.2% of opposing hitters. After striking out 18.5% of opposing hitters last year pitching for the Cubs, that clip has risen to 19.0% this year. Another noteworthy aspect of that game was that Aaron Nola had his best outing of the season. He only allowed one run and three hits in seven innings of work. That was an encouraging way to end April after perhaps the worst start of his career given his 0-5 record with a 6.43 era and a 1.61 whip in his first five starts before then. One of the problems he was experiencing was that his fastball was down a mile or two from his miles-per-hour average last year. His command is off as well. He was walking 8.7% of the batters he has faced and averaging 3.54 bases-on-balls per nine innings which are both the second-worst marks in his eleven-year career. He walked only one Cubs batter last Sunday, and Nola said this about his command going into that effort: “I have to focus on the small things that I usually do, which is to get the leadoff hitter out, first-pitch strikes, and walks,” he continued. “I had two [walks] the other night, but the past two games before that, I had four each game, which is kind of unacceptable for me. I’m not a guy who usually walks a lot of guys in my career. That’s not really me.” Nola may have righted the ship regarding his command.Good luck - TDG.

Florida Had History On Its Side For National Championship Game Monday

by Team Del Genio

Wednesday, Apr 30, 2025

The National Championship game in college basketball featured two number one seeds, Florida and Houston. The Cougars might have had a home crowd advantage with the final four taking place in the Alamodome in San Antonio, and teams playing in their home state in the final four now have an 8-1 straight-up record. Yet it was only UCLA back in 1975 who then went on to win the national championship in their home state. Sticking with the theme of the historical record, favorites in the national championship game had a 41-13 straight-up record while covering the point spread in thirty-one of those fifty-four games since 1970. That was one of the reasons we backed the Gators in that title game. Florida continued to demonstrate they had grit by rallying from a nine-point deficit with 18 minutes left against Auburn in the final four to cruise to a 79-73 victory in that rematch against their SEC rivals. Once again, it was Walter Clayton, Jr. who took over the game by scoring 34 points. The Gators had only lost once since February 1st, winning seventeen of their last eighteen games. What continued to be impressive about them in this tournament is their refusal to lose in the face of adversity that they had not seen often this year, the test that Duke failed on Saturday in their game against Houston. Florida got outplayed for 37 minutes against Texas Tech in the Elite Eight and trailed by nine points with three minutes left before Clayton, Jr. put his team on his back to lead the team to a comeback 84-79 victory. The Gators made 25 of their 27 shots at the charity stripe in that game which could be decisive in the championship game. They got to the free throw line 30 times against the Tigers and made 21 of those shots. If Houston had any weaknesses, one of them was putting their opponents on the foul line as they rank 214th in the country in defensive free throw rate. After cruising through the SEC tournament with all three of their victories by nine or more points (despite the SEC qualifying a record 14 teams into the NCAA tournament), one of the question marks for this team was how they would execute in close games. After pulling out three NCAA tournament games against UConn, Texas Tech, and now Auburn, head coach Todd Golden’s teams have passed two difficult tests in that regard. He assembled a great roster with all that depth up front along with three super guards, Clayton, Jr., Alijah Martin, and Will Richard, who can all lead the team in scoring for a game like this. Florida had covered the point spread in thirteen of their eighteen games on the road when the oddsmakers installed them as the favorite. They had covered the point spread in ten of their last thirteen games played on a neutral court. In their eleven games played against teams with a winning percentage of 80% or higher, they have covered the point spread in eight of those games this year. Houston looked completely outclassed, with just eight minutes left in the second half against Duke in the final four, and they trailed by 14 points. Yet head coach Kelvin Sampson’s team persevered by going on a 25-8 run to steal a 70-67 upset victory as a 4.5-point underdog. Their comeback was impressive. Sampson’s formula for success has finally gotten one of his teams into the national championship game. It starts by playing tough defense, and Houston held the Blue Devils to just a 14 of 36 mark (38.9%) of their 2-point shots inside the arc. Sampson’s teams have usually been one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, and they grabbed 18 offensive rebounds representing 46.2% of their missed shots. Yet what made this team different this year is they have the best 3-point shooting team in the country. Against Duke, they made 10 of their 22 shots (45.5%) from behind the 3-point line. Despite all that, in hindsight, it still feels like their victory in the final four had more to do with the Blue Devils giving the game away in the final moments. While Duke was the favorite to win the national championship of the four remaining teams, one of their potential flaws was inexperience in pulling out close games. So congratulations to the Cougars, yet they remained the team that was getting outplayed for most of their final four showdown, and history is not on their side now given the circumstances of their win. In the last ten years in the NCAA tournament, when a team rallies from a double-digit deficit to pull out a win and then is playing with short rest in the second round, the Elite Eight or the championship game, those teams have won just sixteen of those forty-three games. Since 2012, teams that just beat Duke in the NCAA tournament have won only twice in the ten games following that win, and those teams have covered the point spread just twice in those ten games. Florida rallied later to pull out a 65-63 victory against the Cougars to win the national championship and cover the -1 point spread they were laying. Good luck - TDG.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, MLB, UCL and NHL Previews and Odds - 04/30/2025

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Apr 30, 2025

The Wednesday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and UCL action.The National Basketball Association continues its playoff season with two games on TNT. The Houston Rockets host the Golden State Warriors at 7:35 p.m. ET as a 4-point favorite, with the total set at 203.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The Los Angeles Lakers play at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves at 10:05 p.m. ET as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 209.The National Hockey League playoffs continue with three games on its slate. The Washington Capitals are home against the Montreal Canadiens on ESPN at 7:10 p.m. ET as a -192 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Tampa Bay Lightning host the Florida Panthers on ESPN2 at 7:40 p.m. ET as a -112 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Winnipeg Jets play at home against the St. Louis Blues on ESPN at 9:40 p.m. ET as a -175 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. Major League Baseball has 16 games on its schedule. The Cincinnati Reds are home against the St. Louis Cardinals in the opening game of their doubleheader at 12:40 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Houston Astros play at home against the Detroit Tigers as a -120 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 3:10 p.m. ET. The Atlanta Braves travel to Colorado to take on the Rockies as a -250 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 10. The Los Angeles Dodgers are home against the Miami Marlins as a -298 money-line favorite with a total of 9.5.Two MLB games start at 4:10 p.m. ET. The Seattle Mariners host the Los Angeles Angels as a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The San Diego Padres play at home against the San Francisco Giants as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 7. The Minnesota Twins play in Cleveland against the Guardians at 6:10 p.m. ET as a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The New York Yankees are in Baltimore to battle the Orioles at 6:35 p.m. ET a a -118 money-line road favorite with a total of 10.Two MLB games begin at 6:40 p.m. ET. The Chicago Cubs visit Pittsburgh to play the Pirates as a -175 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Reds are home against the Cardinals in the second game of their doubleheader as a -122 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The Philadelphia Phillies host the Washington Nationals at 6:45 p.m. ET as a -225 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Tampa Bay Rays play at home against the Kansas City Royals at 7:05 p.m. ET as a -185 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Boston Red Sox play in Toronto against the Blue Jays at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Arizona Diamondbacks are in New York to challenge the Mets at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Milwaukee Brewers visit Chicago to play the White Sox at 7:40 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Texas Rangers are home against the Athletics at 8:05 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 8.The first leg of the semifinals of the UEFA Champions League concludes on CBS at 3 PM ET. Barcelona hosts Inter Milan as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5.

MLB News and Notes -- Good and Bad to Start 2025

by AAA Sports

Tuesday, Apr 29, 2025

The 'Good' Los Angeles Dodgers (20-10) - Last year's World Series Champions have looked really good again so far. Los Angeles has the three Japanese superstars -- Ohtani, Yamamoto and Sasaki. Sasaki is still getting settled into his new team and new country and hasn't even picked up his first win yet. But, the Dodgers keep winning and are the top team in the NL West right now. They are the favorites to win the World Series this year and we can see exactly why. New York Mets (21-9) - Juan Soto has not been up to his standards after making the move from the Yankees to the Mets. He hasn't even hit a home-run at Citi Field yet this season. But, New York is still winning even with the tough start for one of the top baseball players in the MLB. The Mets are the top team in the loaded NL East division and they lead by 4.5 games. It will probably even out as the season moves along but the Mets have the best record in the MLB so far and will be dangerous once Soto catches fire.Detroit Tigers (18-12) - The Tigers made the playoffs last season and beat the Astros in the Wildcard Series. They don't have the best team overall on paper. But, the youth and style of play that they play is hard for teams to go up against. They also have maybe the top pitcher in the American League -- Tarik Skubal has a 2.34 ERA this year and has been the pinnacle of pitching over the past year. We think that the Tigers have a good shot at being even better than last season with the American League having slightly less competition at the top than the National League has (our opinion.)San Francisco Giants (19-11) - Surprising to some, but expected for Bob Melvin and the Giants. They have began this season really well and it's because of their defense and the long ball. San Francisco has the best fielding percentage in the MLB right now and doesn't allow teams to get any baserunners that they don't earn. The Giants also have 23 home runs in 30 games -- top five out of all the teams right now. We think that the NL West will catch up to the Giants with San Diego/Arizona below them ever so slightly. But, it's been a rock solid start for SF. The 'Okay' Philadelphia Phillies (16-13) - Streaks of winning and losing have been what has happened to the Phillies this season. They went on a five games losing streak during the middle of April and have now won three games in a row to have them where they are right now. Aaron Nola has been worse than expected but there's still a lot of year left for him to get back to where he has been over the last few years. Philadelphia also has a really good offense with a top on base percentage in the MLB. We know that they are better than 16-13 and we think that they will improve to 'The Good' at the end of this season. Boston Red Sox (17-14) - The Red Sox are on a winning streak of three games right now and are improving by the day. Boston went out and got Alex Bregman and Garrett Crochet in the offseason. Those two guys help make the Red Sox a really good team. Boston is top five in hits, on base percantage, ops, slugging and stolen bases a fifth intho the season. We think that Boston will challenge New York at the end of the season for the best team in the American League East Division. Kansas City Royals (15-15) - Kansas City made the playoffs last year and beat the Orioles in the Wildcard Series. The Royals have won half of their games this season. They got their top pitcher Cole Ragans on a great deal for the team in the offseason (not the best for Ragans) and will be a team that people should look out for when the Royals' farm system brings up players to the Major Leagues. Bobby Witt Jr is a bright superstar and will provide the Royals with his great player for a long time. The 'Poor' Atlanta Braves (14-15) - Slowly improving after a really bad start, the Braves will soon be in 'The Okay' group of these rankings. Atlanta still doesn't have the record that it would want though this season. The Braves got back Spencer Strider and will get back Ronald Acuna Jr really soon. Ozzie Albies and Matt Olson have not been where they want to be in terms of hitting. But, the Braves shouldn't have any trouble in overcoming the bad start and making the playoffs again this year with how many good players they have on their team. Baltimore Orioles (11-18) - After the Orioles lost Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander in the offseason, they didn't replace either of them with anyone of the same caliber. Baltimore does not have as good of a team as it did last year and it lost in the Wildcard Series last year to the Kansas City Royals. Grayson Rodriguez was just transferred to the 60-Day IL and hasn't pitched for the Orioles this season. They are really lacking with their pitching this year with Kyle Gibson making his first start and allowing four home runs in the first inning. Charlie Morton has also been really bad this year. St. Louis Cardinals (12-17) - St. Louis wasn't supposed to be great. But, the Cardinals don't have as bad as a team as they continue to play like. St. Louis did give up Paul Goldschmidt in the offseason -- who has been a terrific addition to the Yankees. St. Louis still has really good power hitting and should have decent pitching too in one of the worst Divisions in the MLB. The Cubs are a lot better this season so the Cardinals have to really pick it up if they want to make the playoffs this season. We don't think that they get there.

Brasileirão Série A Prop Futures (2025 Season)

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Tuesday, Apr 29, 2025

The Brasileirão Série A season started back on March 28 and there have been 6 rounds played already. There are still 32 rounds left in the season so there are plenty of matches still to be played and a lot can change throughout that time. Botafogo is the defending champion from last season, but they did not gain a steady lead at the top of the table until Round 22 and there was plenty of fluctuation prior to that. There are plenty of different ways to bet on the 2025 Brasileirão season though, not just betting on a club to win it all, and there is lots of value to be found in some of the other markets. Now with the season getting into full swing, it is time to see what markets have value to be taken advantage of. To Finish Top 4 Internacional +120: Internacional has some value at this price to finish in the top 4 this season. They finished in 5th place last season and have been in the top 5 of the league twice over the last 3 years, but they have made a lot of improvements to their team this year. They have had a great defense over the last few years, but now they have added some more quality to their attack and their midfield, along with some good depth as well. They have other competitions to worry about like Copa Libertadores, but they cannot rely on winning the competition to get back in next season so they still have to focus on the league and they have the quality to be near the top for most of the season. It is very likely that both Flamengo and Palmeiras will be 2 of the teams in the top 4, but Internacional can certainly hold their own against those clubs and can keep themselves in the top 4. Their defense will keep them in the tougher matches with a chance to come away with something positive, and their attack has improved a lot from previous years. There is some good value in Internacional to finish in the top 4 at this price. Ceara +2500: Ceara has a lot of value at this price to finish in the top 4 this season. Ceara was a relegated team 3 seasons ago and they have spent the last 2 years in Serie B. They finally got promoted back to Serie A this season, but they have returned stronger than ever. They were in very good form in their regional league just prior to the season starting and they are not off to a bad start in the Brasileirão either. Their defense could use some improvements, but their attack has been very potent going back to their regional league and that is going to help them in the long run as they can score their way out of trouble. They also have the advantage of not being in any South American competitions so they have nothing but the league to focus on and they are going to push to finish as high as possible after spending the last 2 years in Serie B. They are obviously not an elite team in the league or they would not have put themselves in a position to be relegated, but crazier things have happened in the Brasileirao and it would not be shocking to see Ceara make a run. It is not unprecedented either as Gremio was a team that came up from Serie B in the 2023 season and they finished that season in 2nd place their 1st year back in Serie A, finishing just 2 points behind Palmeiras who won the league that year. Ceara is a big dark horse in the league this year and there is a lot of value in them at this price to sneak into the top 4 this season. To Finish Top 6 Botafogo -138: Botafogo has some value at this price to finish in the top 6 this season. Botafogo has been a very dominant team in the league over the last 2 years and they are coming off of a very big season. They are the defending champions of the Brasileirão Title from last season, and they are also the Copa Libertadores champions from last year. They have not had a great start to the season and they were not in great form in their regional league either, but they are still a quality team with lots of depth and they are still within striking distance of the top 6. They will get better and round into form as the season goes on and they are not going to let the title go so easily after winning it last year. They have struggled to score goals to start the season, but their defense has been elite and that is something they have leaned on a lot over the last year. Their defense is elite in the league as they make it very difficult for opponents to score and that is going to have a big impact on their season later on. Botafogo is currently sitting in 8th place after 6 matches so they are right on the doorstep of the top 6, only 1 point out of a spot, and they are a much better team than the way they have started the season. There is a lot of value in Botafogo at this price to finish in the top 6 this season. Fluminense +150: Fluminense has some value at this price to finish in the top 6 this season. Fluminense is coming off of a bad season in which they finished in 13th place and they have only finished in the top 6 once in the last 4 seasons. This is a good season for them to make a return to the top of the table though. They have been in very good form to start the season and were also in great form in their regional league just prior to the Brasileirão season starting, even going to the Final where they lost in a close battle with Flamengo. They have added some more quality and depth to their squad after their poor performance last season, and they have a very good defense to lean on this year. They are currently sitting in 5th place with a good start to the season as they are only 1 of 5 teams who have won 3 of their 6 matches this year. Their attack has struggled a bit as they are not scoring many goals, but their defense is going to make them a very tough team to beat. Fluminense is also going to benefit this season as there are fewer dominant clubs in the league this year and there are no “sure things” other than Flamengo and Palmeiras, so there will be more opportunities to get into the top 6 as the competition will not be as strong. There is some good value in Fluminense at this price to finish in the top 6 this season. Ceara +1000: Ceara was already mentioned earlier as a possible club that could finish in the top 4 this season so for the same reasons, there is a lot of value in them at this price to finish in the top 6. To Be Relegated Sport Recife -150: Sport Recife has some value at this price to be relegated this season. They are a newly promoted side that finished in 3rd place in Serie B last season so they are not the strongest out of the group that came up. They have not been back to Serie A since the 2021 season either, and they have been up and down throughout the years. They are currently sitting at the bottom of the table just 6 matches into the season as they have had an awful start to the year, and they are the only team in the league that does not have a win after 6 matches. They also have the 3rd worst goal differential so far, and they have the weakest attack with just 3 goals scored in their 6 matches. Sport Recife does not have the quality to compete with some of the mediocre clubs in Serie A and they have already put themselves in a hole that could keep them at the bottom of the table all year. There is some good value in Sport Recife at this price to be relegated to Serie B at the end of the season. Mirassol -125: Mirassol has some value at this price to be relegated this season. Mirassol is a newly promoted side to Serie A this season and they finished in 2nd place in Serie B last year. They have been on the rise over the last few years as they were only in Serie B for the last 2 seasons, spending most of their time in Serie C, Serie D, and lower leagues. They have come up through the ranks very quickly, but this is their 1st ever season playing in the Brasileirão Série A and it is going to be a huge adjustment for them. They have played well to start the season as they are currently sitting in 14th place and out of the relegation zone, but a big reason for that has been because they have drawn 4 of their 6 matches so far. Those draws are only going to hurt them in the long run as they will need more wins to stay out of the relegation zone, and even being in 14th after 6 matches only has them 1 point out of the zone. They have actually been one of the better attacking teams to start the season with 11 goals in their 6 matches, but a lot of that has to do with their defense being so bad. They have also allowed 9 goals in their first 6 matches this season and they have not played any of the top contenders yet either. Mirassol does not have the quality to stay in Serie A this season so there is a lot of value in them at this price to be relegated at the end of the season. To Finish Bottom Sport Recife +275: Sport Recife has already been mentioned earlier as a possible club to be relegated by the end of the season and they are also a possible club to finish at the very bottom of the table for all the same reasons. They have already put themselves in a big hole in the first 6 matches to start the season and their attack has struggled to create scoring chances. They have the worst squad in the Brasileirão this season and that squad is going to keep them at the bottom of the table all year. There is a lot of value in Sport Recife at this price to finish at the bottom of the league this season.

Brasileirão Série A Futures (2025 Season)

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Tuesday, Apr 29, 2025

The Brasileirão Série A season started back on March 28 and there have been 6 rounds played already. There are still 32 rounds left in the season so there are plenty of matches still to be played and a lot can change throughout that time. Botafogo is the defending champion from last season, but they were only lurking in the top 6 for the first 14 weeks of the season and did not take charge of the league until Round 22 when they finally took the lead and never gave it up. Now with the league starting to get back into full swing, it is time to see who has the best chance of winning the league title this year. To Win Outright Flamengo +150: Flamengo is the team with the best chance at winning the Brasileirão Série A Title this season according to the oddsmakers. Flamengo is a force in the league every season and they are usually one of the big favorites to win every competition they are in. They have had one of the better teams in the league for years and they certainly have the money to spend to keep this club competitive, but they have not won the league title since the 2020 season. They were extremely dominant in all of South America back then and they have continued to be a dominant team in the league despite not winning the title since 2020, still finishing in the top 5 every year since then. They are currently sitting at the top of the table after 6 weeks with a 4-2-0 record, and they also have a +13 goal differential with 15 goals scored and only 2 goals allowed in their 6 matches so far. They have been playing like the best team in the league to start the season, but they were also very good in their regional league before the season started. Flamengo has both the quality and the depth to be the dominant figure in this league this season. It has also been a few years since they won the title and it has been a few years since their dominant stretch in which they were winning Copa Libertadores as well. They have come close in recent years as well so they are going to be focused on winning the league this year and have the motivation to do so. There is not a team in the league that Flamengo cannot beat so as long as they stay focused, they have the quality to do it and it might just be their year to get it done. There is some value in Flamengo winning the league title at this price. Palmeiras +175: Palmeiras is the team with the next best chance at winning the Brasileirão Série A Title this season according to the oddsmakers. Palmeiras is a force in the league every season, just like Flamengo, and they are just as decorated in South America if not more over the last few years. They have multiple Copa Libertadores Titles in the last 6 years and they have won the league title in 2 of the last 3 seasons, even finishing in 2nd place last season. They are a team that can never be counted out and they always have the quality as well as the depth to stay competitive in this league. They are currently sitting in 2nd place in the table with a 4-1-1 record, and they have a +5 goal differential with 7 goals scored and 2 goals allowed in their 6 matches so far. They have one of the better defenses in the league as they are a very difficult team to score on, but their attack has not been great. They have been struggling to score goals in these matches to start the season and that goes back to their regional league as well. They have been able to score plenty against much weaker clubs and can bury a bad team with goals, but they have struggled to score against the better defenses they have faced and that will lead to more draws throughout the season which will hurt them in the title race in the long run. Their defense is always going to keep them in their matches with a chance to win, but their attack is certainly lacking some quality and they may not have the horses to keep up with a team like Flamengo if they start to pull away at the top of the table. Palmeiras is an elite team in the Brasileirão and they are going to be near the top of the table all season, but there are better teams in the league this season and there is no real value in them winning the league title at this price. Internacional +1000: Internacional is the team with the next best chance at winning the Brasileirão Série A Title this season according to the oddsmakers. Internacional is not an elite team in the Brasileirão and has not been consistently near the top throughout recent years, but they have revamped their team this year with a lot of quality and depth. They have been in the top 5 in 2 of the last 3 seasons and they are going to be a threat in the league this year as well. They are currently sitting in 6th place in the table with a 2-3-1 record, and they have a +4 goal differential with 8 goals scored and 4 goals allowed in their 6 matches so far. They have not had the best start to the season with 3 draws already, but they are still in the top 6 and have plenty of time to make moves as this was not a bad start to the season either. They have a very good defense like the elite teams in this league and that is going to carry them far. Their attack has not been the best to start the season, but they do have plenty of quality and depth in their attack. Internacional does have other competitions to worry about and they will likely be more focused on Copa Libertadores which is going to play a factor in the title race down the stretch, but they have the depth to play in multiple competitions and give themselves a chance. Internacional is certainly a dark horse in this league this season with the way they have revamped their squad and improved it, and there is some value in them winning the title at this price, but they are still not the best option. Botafogo +1400: Botafogo is the team with the next best chance at winning the Brasileirão Série A Title this season according to the oddsmakers. Botafogo is a club that has had some recent dominance in the Brasileirão. They were a struggling club for years and even ended up in Serie B just a few years ago, but that season changed everything for them as they got back to Serie A the next season and returned as a much stronger club. They have been very dominant in the league over the last 2 seasons and last year was when it all finally came together as they won the league title and the Copa Libertadores Title. They are currently sitting in 8th place in the table with a 2-2-2 record, and they have a +2 goal differential with 6 goals scored and 4 goals allowed in their 6 matches this season. They have a very good defense that keeps them in a lot of their matches, but their attack has been struggling a lot to score goals. This is a problem that goes back to their regional league as well, not scoring many goals throughout that season, and they did not perform well in that league either. Botafogo may be the defending champions from last season, but this season it is going to be much harder for them to win as they will have a much bigger target on their back. They could also be feeling the fatigue of winning both competitions last season, the league title and Copa Libertadores, so they will not have the same urgency as they did last season either. It has also been very rare in recent years for a club not named Flamengo or Palmeiras to repeat as league champions as well. Botafogo is a good club, but they do not have it in them to repeat the league title this season so there is not a lot of value in them at this price. RecommendationThere is a very large gap between the top 2 teams and the rest of the league to win the title. There is good reason for this though as there have only been 2 teams not named Flamengo or Palmeiras who have won the league title in the last 7 seasons. Internacional is a tempting dark horse at +1000, but they will likely be more focused on winning Copa Libertadores this season and that could hurt them late in the season if they do make a deep run. Flamengo and Palmeiras are the 2 clubs that have dominated this league in recent years, but it has been a while since Flamengo lifted the title and that is surely going to be a focus for them this season. Flamengo is the best team in the league right now and they have the motivation to win, especially with their strong start to the season. Flamengo at +150 is the best option for a club to win the Brasileirão Série A Title this season.

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