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Brasileirão Série A Futures (2025 Season)

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Tuesday, Apr 29, 2025

The Brasileirão Série A season started back on March 28 and there have been 6 rounds played already. There are still 32 rounds left in the season so there are plenty of matches still to be played and a lot can change throughout that time. Botafogo is the defending champion from last season, but they were only lurking in the top 6 for the first 14 weeks of the season and did not take charge of the league until Round 22 when they finally took the lead and never gave it up. Now with the league starting to get back into full swing, it is time to see who has the best chance of winning the league title this year. To Win Outright Flamengo +150: Flamengo is the team with the best chance at winning the Brasileirão Série A Title this season according to the oddsmakers. Flamengo is a force in the league every season and they are usually one of the big favorites to win every competition they are in. They have had one of the better teams in the league for years and they certainly have the money to spend to keep this club competitive, but they have not won the league title since the 2020 season. They were extremely dominant in all of South America back then and they have continued to be a dominant team in the league despite not winning the title since 2020, still finishing in the top 5 every year since then. They are currently sitting at the top of the table after 6 weeks with a 4-2-0 record, and they also have a +13 goal differential with 15 goals scored and only 2 goals allowed in their 6 matches so far. They have been playing like the best team in the league to start the season, but they were also very good in their regional league before the season started. Flamengo has both the quality and the depth to be the dominant figure in this league this season. It has also been a few years since they won the title and it has been a few years since their dominant stretch in which they were winning Copa Libertadores as well. They have come close in recent years as well so they are going to be focused on winning the league this year and have the motivation to do so. There is not a team in the league that Flamengo cannot beat so as long as they stay focused, they have the quality to do it and it might just be their year to get it done. There is some value in Flamengo winning the league title at this price.  Palmeiras +175: Palmeiras is the team with the next best chance at winning the Brasileirão Série A Title this season according to the oddsmakers. Palmeiras is a force in the league every season, just like Flamengo, and they are just as decorated in South America if not more over the last few years. They have multiple Copa Libertadores Titles in the last 6 years and they have won the league title in 2 of the last 3 seasons, even finishing in 2nd place last season. They are a team that can never be counted out and they always have the quality as well as the depth to stay competitive in this league. They are currently sitting in 2nd place in the table with a 4-1-1 record, and they have a +5 goal differential with 7 goals scored and 2 goals allowed in their 6 matches so far. They have one of the better defenses in the league as they are a very difficult team to score on, but their attack has not been great. They have been struggling to score goals in these matches to start the season and that goes back to their regional league as well. They have been able to score plenty against much weaker clubs and can bury a bad team with goals, but they have struggled to score against the better defenses they have faced and that will lead to more draws throughout the season which will hurt them in the title race in the long run. Their defense is always going to keep them in their matches with a chance to win, but their attack is certainly lacking some quality and they may not have the horses to keep up with a team like Flamengo if they start to pull away at the top of the table. Palmeiras is an elite team in the Brasileirão and they are going to be near the top of the table all season, but there are better teams in the league this season and there is no real value in them winning the league title at this price.  Internacional +1000: Internacional is the team with the next best chance at winning the Brasileirão Série A Title this season according to the oddsmakers. Internacional is not an elite team in the Brasileirão and has not been consistently near the top throughout recent years, but they have revamped their team this year with a lot of quality and depth. They have been in the top 5 in 2 of the last 3 seasons and they are going to be a threat in the league this year as well. They are currently sitting in 6th place in the table with a 2-3-1 record, and they have a +4 goal differential with 8 goals scored and 4 goals allowed in their 6 matches so far. They have not had the best start to the season with 3 draws already, but they are still in the top 6 and have plenty of time to make moves as this was not a bad start to the season either. They have a very good defense like the elite teams in this league and that is going to carry them far. Their attack has not been the best to start the season, but they do have plenty of quality and depth in their attack. Internacional does have other competitions to worry about and they will likely be more focused on Copa Libertadores which is going to play a factor in the title race down the stretch, but they have the depth to play in multiple competitions and give themselves a chance. Internacional is certainly a dark horse in this league this season with the way they have revamped their squad and improved it, and there is some value in them winning the title at this price, but they are still not the best option. Botafogo +1400: Botafogo is the team with the next best chance at winning the Brasileirão Série A Title this season according to the oddsmakers. Botafogo is a club that has had some recent dominance in the Brasileirão. They were a struggling club for years and even ended up in Serie B just a few years ago, but that season changed everything for them as they got back to Serie A the next season and returned as a much stronger club. They have been very dominant in the league over the last 2 seasons and last year was when it all finally came together as they won the league title and the Copa Libertadores Title. They are currently sitting in 8th place in the table with a 2-2-2 record, and they have a +2 goal differential with 6 goals scored and 4 goals allowed in their 6 matches this season. They have a very good defense that keeps them in a lot of their matches, but their attack has been struggling a lot to score goals. This is a problem that goes back to their regional league as well, not scoring many goals throughout that season, and they did not perform well in that league either. Botafogo may be the defending champions from last season, but this season it is going to be much harder for them to win as they will have a much bigger target on their back. They could also be feeling the fatigue of winning both competitions last season, the league title and Copa Libertadores, so they will not have the same urgency as they did last season either. It has also been very rare in recent years for a club not named Flamengo or Palmeiras to repeat as league champions as well. Botafogo is a good club, but they do not have it in them to repeat the league title this season so there is not a lot of value in them at this price.  RecommendationThere is a very large gap between the top 2 teams and the rest of the league to win the title. There is good reason for this though as there have only been 2 teams not named Flamengo or Palmeiras who have won the league title in the last 7 seasons. Internacional is a tempting dark horse at +1000, but they will likely be more focused on winning Copa Libertadores this season and that could hurt them late in the season if they do make a deep run. Flamengo and Palmeiras are the 2 clubs that have dominated this league in recent years, but it has been a while since Flamengo lifted the title and that is surely going to be a focus for them this season. Flamengo is the best team in the league right now and they have the motivation to win, especially with their strong start to the season. Flamengo at +150 is the best option for a club to win the Brasileirão Série A Title this season. 

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April Starting Pitching AL Overachievers

by Nelly's Sports

Tuesday, Apr 29, 2025

With most starters now making at least five starts in the 2025 season the data to work with is becoming a bit more meaningful. There are a few pitchers that stand out as overachievers in the first month of the season and these four American League starters may be worth avoiding in upcoming starting efforts.   Tyler Mahle – Texas Rangers After back-to-back seasons limited by injury, Mahle has emerged a strong option in the Texas rotation so far, already 3-0 in six starts with a 1.14 ERA. Mahle has pitched well but he has a .217 BABIP and an over 87 percent strand rate so far this season. Mahle posted big strikeout counts in 2020 and 2021 with Cincinnati, but he hasn’t come close to matching that level since, including a 7.4 K/9 so far this season. Mahle has made four of his six starts at home while his road starts were in favorable pitching conditions in San Francisco and early April in Chicago. Mahle is only 30 and a second life to his career is possible but he isn’t likely to maintain this pace as his walk rate has been elevated and he has so far not allowed a single home run yet this season.  Max Fried – New York Yankees Max Fried, the 31-year-old left-hander, was a big free agent score for the Yankees after eight seasons pitching for Atlanta. With the numerous injuries on the New York pitching staff, the importance of the pick-up has been magnified and Fried has delivered with a 5-0 start and a 1.43 ERA. Fried’s K/9 of just 7.9 is the lowest he has had since his short rookie stint in 2017. Fried has always kept walks and home runs to a minimum but doing so at Yankee Stadium will be more challenging. Fried’s groundball rate so far in 2025 is the lowest of his career as well. Fried has drawn a favorable schedule of opposing offenses so far this season and while he will remain an upper level starter, the current bullpen questions for New York may leave Fried’s pricing a bit steep moving forward with his impressive win count. Tyler Anderson – Los Angeles Angels Starting strong in April is nothing new for Anderson, who had a great start to his 2024 season, posting a 2.23 ERA in his first six starts. Anderson wound up with a 3.81 ERA for the season going 10-15 in his decisions and his career K/9 is just 7.5 as he has never been a great swing-and-miss generator. This season Anderson is 2-0 in five starts with a 2.60 ERA, but his FIP is 5.23. He has allowed 12 walks and five home runs in five starts but has benefited from an ultra-low .167 BABIP while stranding almost 96 percent of his baserunners. After showing some life in the first two weeks of the season the Angels are back in the AL West basement already and Anderson’s numbers are likely to swell as the sample size grows as well.  Hayden Wesneski – Houston Astros A sixth round pick by the Yankees in 2019, Wesneski has pitched for the Cubs the past three seasons with mixed results, primarily as a reliever. For Houston he has pitched 28 innings in 2025 all in a starting role and his ERA has been solid at 3.86, While it is a small sample, Wesneski has a career HR/9 of nearly 1.7 and he has allowed six home runs in five starts this season. After allowing just five hits in his first two starts with Houston, Wesneski has allowed 19 hits in his last three starts despite keeping the scoring in check. His .240 BABIP is likely to climb over time and he has only had a 35 percent groundball rate this season as home runs are going to be a risk for Wesneski, particularly when he starts to face more challenging road venues. 

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April Starting Pitching NL Overachievers

by Nelly's Sports

Tuesday, Apr 29, 2025

With most starters now making at least five starts in the 2025 season the data to work with is becoming a bit more meaningful. There are a few pitchers that stand out as overachievers in the first month of the season and these four National League starters may be worth avoiding in upcoming starting efforts.   Nick Lodolo – Cincinnati Reds A 1st round pick in 2019, Lodolo made big waves in limited action in 2022 with the Reds posting an 11.4 K/9 in 19 starts. Lodolo was inconsistent the past two seasons before regaining a firm spot in the rotation this season. So far Lodolo has been a leader for the Reds with a 2.25 ERA, but his K/9 is only 6.8 for a major change compared to his past results. Lodolo has a .214 BABIP in 36 innings compared to a career BABIP of .308 as a lot has gone right for the lanky southpaw so far in 2025. The Great American Ballpark is a notoriously difficult pitching park, and his career ERA is 4.97 in Cincinnati. Not surprisingly only two of his six starts this season have been at home as the early returns for Lodolo are not likely to last.  Brandon Pfaadt – Arizona Diamondbacks A postseason hero for the Diamondbacks in the 2023 run to the World Series, Pfaadt had rather average numbers in his first full season as a starter in 2024. This season his strand rate is 20 percent higher than it was last season which has led to his 2.78 ERA so far in six starts, nearly two runs lower than his 4.71 ERA last season. Pfaadt has good command and has always enjoyed a low walk rate but his 5-1 start in 2025 includes just a 7.3 K/9. The schedule has likely played a role in his strong start however, facing one start against a team with a winning record in his six starts and that game provided his only loss.  Andre Pallante – St. Louis Cardinals Pallante was primarily an inning-eating reliever for the Cardinals in 2022 and 2023 but he made 20 starts last season with some success. He has never been a great strikeout pitcher, but he has usually had a low home run rate. Ironically he has allowed six home runs already in six starts in 2025, but his numbers have been decent with a 4.13 ERA in nearly 33 innings of work. Pallante has a 5.33 FIP however and after allowing 10 hits and four runs in his first three starts, he has since allowed 20 hits and 11 runs in his last three starts. The numbers may continue the latter trajectory for Pallante as he is likely only a temporary back of the rotation starter for the Cardinals.  Spence Schwellenbach – Atlanta Braves  A 2nd round pick in 2021, Schwellenbach has a bright future as he is still under 25 years old. In 21 starts last season he had great numbers for Atlanta but so far in 2025 there are some red flags despite a similar ERA so far this season. Schwellenbach has seen his K/9 drop considerably this season down to just 7.9 while he has enjoyed some good fortune with a .255 BABIP so far this season. Since posting 10 strikeouts against Miami in his second start of the season Schwellenbach has only 19 strikeouts in his last four starts combined while also allowing 14 runs. He has struggled in his last two road starts and his success last season was built with only 57 road innings. His label as an elite prospect will keep Schwellenbach priced as a favorite in most outings but some inconsistency should be expected to continue. 

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The Houston Cougars Under Head Coach Kelvin Sampson: Still Not Reliable to Score Enough Points

by Hollywood Sports

Tuesday, Apr 29, 2025

I was on Duke against the Cougars in the Final Four  — and despite getting that call wrong, much of my concern about Kelvin Sampson’s  Houston team played out as I expected. As I wrote for that Report: “Houston’s offense can still go cold because of their inefficiency inside the arc.” Sure enough, the Cougars only made 13 of their 39 shots from inside the arc for a rough 33.3% shooting percentage. Houston ranked 292nd going into the National Championship Game by making only 48.0% of their shots inside the arc — and that mark dropped to a 46.1% clip on the road which ranked 283rd. They were scoring -2.7 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. But the Cougars were one of Sampson’s best scoring teams because they lead the nation by nailing 39.9% of their shots from behind the arc — and they nailed 10 of their 22 shots from behind the arc against the Blue Devils at a 45.5% clip. Could they come close to that in the National Championship Game? The Gators ranked sixth in the nation by holding their opponents to 29.5% shooting from behind the arc. The other area where Houston dominated was on the offensive glass as they pulled down 18 offensive rebounds on a remarkable 46.2% of their missed shots — despite Duke’s significant size edge. Credit goes to box-out fundamentals this team has been taught — but the Cougars once again are at a size disadvantage since the Gators have four players in their forward rotation that are taller than 6’8 which is how big Houston gets on their front line from their regulars. Florida ranked 133rd in the nation with their opponents rebounding 29.0% of their missed shots — but that number is reflective of head coach Todd Golden’s desire to play at a fast pace and get up-and-down in transition from their opponent's missed shots. Given what the Cougars did to Duke, Golden may have his team focus more on limiting second-chance opportunities. They limited Auburn to pulling down only 25% of their missed shots despite the Tigers ranking 50th in the nation in offensive rebounding (34.2%). In the SEC Tournament Championship Game, they held Tennessee to rebounding only 17.4% of their missed shots despite the Volunteers ranking 23rd in offensive rebounding (35.6%). Clearly, Florida can frustrate great offensive rebounding teams if they want to — but the choice to do it requires them to slow the pace of the game down. Houston’s scoring can dry up if their 3s are not falling and they are not getting second-chance looks. In their regular season loss to Auburn, they made only 41.4% of their shots which resulted in 69 points. In their last overtime loss against the Crimson Tide who play at the fastest pace in the nation, they only made 36.9% of their shots. In their loss to San Diego State, they only made 37.1% of their shots. In their narrow 62-60 victory against Purdue in the Sweet 16, they only made 37.7% of their shots. A theme is emerging: if Houston is missing their shots, they can be beaten — and they did not make more than 42.1% of their shots in 11 of their games this season after only making 37.7% of their shots against Duke. On the road, the Cougars' 3-point shooting drops to a 38.0% clip which ranks 15th in the nation (still great, but no longer the best). To compound matters, they do not make things easier for themselves by getting to the free throw line — they rank 327th in the nation in getting to the free throw line. Just not enough easy shots spell trouble — and they were fortunate to get past the Blue Devils with some fortunate whistles late in the game. Houston only scored at a 0.91 Points-Per-Possession rate in the National Championship Game against Florida in a 65-63 loss. They made only 24 of their 69 shots from the field for a 34.8% field goal percentage — and they hit only 6 of their 25 shots from behind the arc for a 24% clip. They only got to the free throw line 14 times where they made nine of their shots. One would think that holding Florida to 65 points would be enough to win the national championship, but Sampson’s teams continue to struggle to score points in big games. Best of luck — Frank.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and UCL Previews and Odds - 04/29/2025

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Apr 29, 2025

The Tuesday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and UCL action.The National Basketball Association continues its playoff season with four games. The Indiana Pacers host the Milwaukee Bucks on NBA TV at 6:05 p.m. ET as a 7.5-point favorite with the total set at 6:05 p.m. ET (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The New York Knicks play at home against Detroit Pistons on TNT/truTV/Max at 7:35 p.m. ET as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 213.5. The Boston Celtics are home against the Orlando Magic on NBA TV at 8:35 p.m. ET as an 11-point favorite with a total of 199.5. The Los Angeles Clippers travel to Denver to face the Nuggets on TNT/truTV/Max at 10:05 p.m. ET as a 1.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 208.5. The National Hockey League playoffs continue with four games on its slate. The Toronto Maple Leafs host the Ottawa Senators on ESPN at 7:10 p.m. ET as a -175 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Carolina Hurricanes play at home against the New Jersey Devils on TBS/Max at 7:40 p.m. ET as a -270 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5.The Vegas Golden Knights play at home against the Minnesota Wild on ESPN at 9:40 p.m. ET as a -230 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Los Angeles Kings are at home against the Edmonton Oilers on TBS/Max at 10:10 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5.Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Cleveland Guardians host the Minnesota Twins at 6:10 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The New York Yankees play at Baltimore against the Orioles at 6:35 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Two MLB games start at 6:40 p.m. ET. Th Chicago Cubs are in Pittsburgh against the Pirates as a -155 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Cincinnati Reds play at home against the St. Louis Cardinals as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Philadelphia Phillies are home against the Washington Nationals at 6:45 p.m. ET as a -192 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Tampa Bay Rays host the Kansas City Royals at 7:05 p.m. ET as a -165 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Boston Red Sox visit Toronto Blue Jays  at  7:07 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. New York Mets play at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks at 7:10 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The  Milwaukee Brewers play at Chicago against the White Sox as a -238 money-line road favorite with the total set at 8. The Texas Rangers are home against the Athletics at 8:05 p.m. ET as a -200 money-line favorite at 8:05 p.m. ET as a -200 money-line favorite at Bet MGM. The Detroit Tigers are in Houston against the Astros at 8:10 p.m. ET with both teams priced as a -110 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Athletics visit Colorado at 8:40 p.m. ET as a -200 money-line road favorite at BetMGM. Two more MLB games begin at 9:40 p.m. ET. The San Francisco Giants play in San Diego against the Padres as a -125 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Seattle  Mariners host the Los Angeles Angels as a -175 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at home against the Miami Marlins at 10:10 p.m. ET as a -190 money-line favorite. The semifinals in the UEFA Champions League begin with the first leg between Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain on CBS at 3:00 p.m. ET. The Gunners are a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5.

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Why Amateur Sports Bettors Lose More Than They Win

by Wayne Root

Monday, Apr 28, 2025

Why don’t the Average Joe bettors all quit their day jobs and live lavishly as millionaires? Because of small betting mistakes turning into huge wagering blunders.Seasoned bettors know that there will always be ups and downs. The key is staying the course, remaining disciplined and steadily building your bankroll over the course of the long haul.DO NOT MAKE THESE MISTAKES  1. Changing Unit Size: One of the Sports Betting Mistakes to Avoid:Bankroll management may be the most important discipline needed to be a successful sports bettor. One of the worst things bettors can do is change their unit size based on how well or how poorly they’re doing. When you’re hot, never double down and risk more because you’re overconfident. When you’re cold, never chase and try to win it all back in one fell swoop. Instead, we encourage most bettors to embrace a flat-betting approach (unless you have a true, quantifiable edge on some bets). Flat betting means betting the same amount on every game and risking only 1% to 5% of your bankroll per play. A good medium is 3% per play.2. Overreacting to Recent TrendsIf a team looked great the previous game, or if it’s riding a four-game winning streak, novice bettors will automatically want to bet on it, simply because it’s playing well. Meanwhile, if a team just got blown out by 20 points and is on a five-game losing streak, novice bettors will automatically fade them. Making informed betting choices is crucial to avoid these common betting mistakes. But that’s a mistake: Historically, teams coming off a win are overvalued. This is why we generally encourage bettors to buy on bad news and sell on good news.3. Gambler's FallacyGambler’s Fallacy is the belief that if something happens more often than normal in a period of time, it will happen less frequently in the future. For example, say you walk up to a roulette table and see that a black number has hit the last 10 spins. Your first thought might be to bet on red because it hasn’t happened in a while and it’s “due.” Falling for the gambler's fallacy can lead to poor betting decisions, as it causes bettors to make choices based on incorrect assumptions rather than rational thinking and thorough research.4. Too Many BetsBettors love to bet. But betting just for the sake of having action is never a good thing. Betting 10 or 15 games per night is dangerous. You are taking on massive risk and one bad night can decimate your bankroll. Placing too many bets is one of the common betting mistakes. Instead, bettors should stay disciplined and limit their plays to their most confident games of the day. You can never lose a bet you don’t make.5. Having Unrealistic ExpectationsNew bettors have lofty expectations when they first start betting. Everyone wants to gain prosperity quick overnight and win 70% of their bets or hit a 1,000-1 parlay, but that’s just not realistic. Having unrealistic expectations is one of the common sports betting mistakes. In order to break even when betting on spread sports (considering standard -110 juice), a bettor must win 52.38% of the time. Anything above 55% is considered to be highly appealing. Practice responsible betting.7. Choosing Your Heart Over Your HeadMore often than not, public bettors lose. They bet with gut instinct and are biased toward betting favorites, home teams and overs (because it’s more fun to watch a high-scoring game than root for blocked shots and missed field goals). They’re also biased toward historic franchises, teams with star players and whoever is getting the most media coverage. Emotional betting can lead to poor outcomes as bettors may chase losses and fail to analyze odds effectively. By betting against the public, contrarian bettors can capitalize on public bias and get artificially inflated numbers. As an added bonus, they place themselves on the side of the sportsbooks. As we all know, the house always wins.8. Going Against the SharpsIn addition to going contrarian, you want to be on the same side as the professional bettors who win at a high rate and have a long track record of success. One of the easiest ways to spot sharp action is looking for Reverse Line Movement: when the line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. In order to succeed long term, bettors need accurate and reliable data. If you don’t know where the public is, where the smart money is and why the line has moved, you’re automatically at a disadvantage. Following sharp action should be part of a solid betting strategy. By covering up the names of the teams, removing all bias, and betting based on line movement, percentages and value, bettors can make the smartest decisions possible and greatly increase their chances of winning.9. Failing to Shop for the Best LineHaving access to bet at multiple sportsbooks gives you a better chance to find the best odds and have long-term success. Why? Every point matters. It’s obviously to your benefit to get that extra point and bet at the book posting +6. By having multiple accounts at several different books, you just got a full point for free. It may not seem like a big deal, but in the long run it can make a world of difference and turn potential losses into wins.Good luck and make your bets smart. WAR

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, and MLB Previews and Odds - 04/28/2025

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Apr 28, 2025

The Monday sports card features NBA, NHL, and MLB action.The National Basketball Association continues its playoff season with two games on TNT. The Cleveland Cavaliers travel to Miami to play the Heat at 7:35 p.m. ET. The Cavaliers took a 3-0 lead in this series with a 124-87 victory on the road as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. Cleveland is an 8.5-point road favorite with the total set at 210 (all odds from DraftKings). The Golden State Warriors host the Houston Rockets at 10:05 p.m. ET. The Warriors have a 2-1 series lead after a 104-93 victory at home as a 2-point favorite on Saturday. Golden State is a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 203.The National Hockey League playoffs continue with two games on ESPN. The Florida Panthers play at home against the Tampa Bay Lightning at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Lightning won their first game in this series with their 5-1 victory on the road against the Panthers on Saturday in the third game of this series. Florida holds a 2-1 series lead and is a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Colorado Avalanche play in Dallas against the Stars at 9:40 p.m. ET. The Avalanche evened this series at 2-2 with a 4-0 victory at home on Saturday. Colorado is a -142 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5Major League Baseball has eight games on its schedule. The New York Mets are in Washington to play the Nationals at 4:05 p.m. ET. Griffin Canning takes the mound for the Mets to pitch against Trevor Williams for the Nationals. New York is a -155 money-line road favorite with a total of 9.5. The Cleveland Guardians are home against the Minnesota Twins at 6:10 p.m. ET. Gavin Williams gets the ball for the Guardians to face Bailey Ober. Cleveland is a -118 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The New York Yankees visit the Baltimore Orioles at 6:35 p.m. ET. The Yankees turn to Will Warren to battle the Orioles’ Tomoyuki Sugano. New York is a -122 money-line road favorite with a total of 10. The Cincinnati Reds host the St. Louis Cardinals at 6:40 p.m. ET. Nick Martinez gets the ball for the Reds to take on Andre Pallante for the Cardinals. Cincinnati is a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Athletics play in Texas against the Rangers at 8:05 p.m. ET. The Athletics tap J.P. Sears to challenge the Rangers’ Patrick Corbin. The Athletics are a -112 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. The Detroit Tigers are in Houston to face the Astros at 8:10 p.m. ET. Jack Flaherty takes the hill for the Tigers to go against Ronel Blanco for the Astros. Detroit is a -118 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Atlanta Braves travel to Colorado to play the Rockies at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Braves turn to Bryce Elder to pitch against the Rockies’ Ryan Feltner. Atlanta is a -175 money-line road favorite with a total of 10.5. The  Los Angeles Dodgers play at home against the Miami Marlins at 10:10 p.m. ET as a -325 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 04/27/2025

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Apr 27, 2025

The Sunday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association continues its playoff season with four games. The Detroit Pistons host the New York Knicks on ABC at 1:05 p.m. ET as a 2-point favorite with the total set at 217 (all odds from DraftKings). The Minnesota Timberwolves play at home against the Los Angeles Lakers on ABC at 3:35 p.m. ET as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 209. The Boston Celtics travel to Orlando to take on the Magic on TNT at 7:05 p.m. ET as a 6.5-point road favorite with a total of 197. The Milwaukee Bucks are home against the Indiana Pacers on TNT at 9:35 p.m. ET as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 226. The National Hockey League playoffs continue with four games broadcast on TBS/TruTV/Max on its slate. The Winnipeg Jets play in St. Louis against the Blues at 1:10 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Carolina Hurricanes are in New Jersey to challenge the Devils at 3:40 p.m. ET as a -175 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Washington Capitals visit Montreal to play the Canadiens at 6:40 p.m. ET as a -118 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Edmonton Oilers are home against the Los Angeles Kings at 9:40 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Major League Baseball has 16 games on its schedule. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:35 p.m. ET. The New York Yankees host the Toronto Blue Jays in the opening game of their doubleheader as a -192 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The New York Mets play in Washington against the Nationals as a -148 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. Three more MLB games start at 1:40 p.m. ET. The Minnesota Twins play at home against the Los Angeles Angels as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Cleveland Guardians are home against the Boston Red Sox as a -115 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Detroit Tigers host the Baltimore Orioles as a -198 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Houston Astros are in Kansa City to battle the Royals at 2:10 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Milwaukee Brewers travel to St. Louis to take on the Cardinals at 2:15 p.m. ET with both teams priced as a money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Cincinnati Reds play in Colorado against the Rockies at 3:10 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 11. Two MLB games begin at 4:05 p.m. ET. The San Francisco Giants play at home against the Texas Rangers as a -1335 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Athletics are home against the Chicago White Six as a -218 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Four more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 4:10 p.m. ET. The Atlanta Braves are in Arizona to face the Diamondbacks as a -15 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Seattle Mariners host the Miami Marlins as a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The San Diego Padres play at home against the Tampa Bay Rays as a -122 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Los Angeles Dodgers are home against the Pittsburgh Pirates as a -310 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Yankees host the Blue Jays in the second game of their doubleheader at 4:35 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 9.Sunday Night Baseball on EPSN features the Philadelphia Phillies visit Chicago to challenge the Cubs at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Phillies are a -115 money-line road favorite.Matchweek 34 in the English Premier League continues with two matches. Bournemouth plays at home against Manchester United on the USA Network at 9:00 a.m. ET as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Liverpool is home against Tottenham at 11:30 a.m. ET as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3.5. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 04/26/2025

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Apr 26, 2025

The Saturday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association continues its playoff season with four games. The Cleveland Cavaliers travel to Miami to play the Heat on TNT at 1:05 p.m. ET as a 5.5-point road favorite with the total set at 213 (all odds from DraftKings). The Oklahoma City Thunder play in Memphis against the Grizzlies on TNT at 3:35 p.m. ET as a 15-point road favorite with an over/under of 222.5. The Los Angeles Clippers host the Denver Nuggets on TNT at 6:05 p.m. ET as a 6-point favorite with a total of 212.5. The Golden State Warriors play at home against the Houston Rockets on ABC at 8:35 p.m. ET as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 203.5. The National Hockey League playoffs continue with four games broadcast on TBS/TruTV/Max on its slate. The Florida Panthers are home against the Tampa Bay Lightning at 1:10 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Vegas Golden Knights are in Minnesota to play the Wild at 4:10 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line road favorite with an over/under 5.5. The Ottawa Senators are home against the Toronto Maple Leafs at 7:10 p.m. ET as a -115 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Colorado Avalanche host the Dallas Stars at 9:40 p.m. ET as a -180 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Major League Baseball has 17 games on its schedule. The New York Yankees play at home against the Toronto Blue Jays at 1:05 p.m. ET as a -180 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Two more MLB games that are both the opening games of doubleheaders throw out the first pitch at 1:10 p.m. ET. The Boston Red Sox visit the Cleveland Guardians as a -112 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Detroit Tigers are home against the Baltimore Orioles as a -125 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The Minnesota Twins host the Los Angeles Angels at 2:10 p.m. ET as a -120 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The St. Louis Cardinals play at home against the Milwaukee Brewers at 2:15 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Cincinnati Reds play in Colorado against the Rockies at 3:10 p.m. ET as a -192 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 10.5. Four MLB games start at 4:05 p.m. ET. The Athletics are home against the Chicago White Sox as a -225 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The New York Mets are in Washington to take on the Nationals as a -175 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Two games are featured on Fox’s regional afternoon coverage. The San Francisco Giants host the Texas Rangers as a -118 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Philadelphia Phillies travel to Chicago to play the Cubs with both teams priced as a -110 money-line favorite. Both doubleheaders begin their nightcaps at 6:10 p.m. ET. The Orioles play on the road against the Tigers. The Guardians play at home against the Red Sox. The Houston Astros play in Kansas City on FS1 at 7:10 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Arizona Diamondbacks are home against the Atlanta Braves at 8:10 p.m. ET as a -120 money-line favorite with a total of 9.5. The San Diego Padres host the Tampa Bay Rays at 8:40 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates at 9:10 p.m. ET as a -270 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Seattle Mariners are home against the Miami Marlins at 9:40 p.m. ET as a -230 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5.Matchweek 34 in the English Premier League kicks off with five matches. Chelsea hosts Everton on the USA Network at 7:30 a.m. ET as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Four more matches begin at 10:00 a.m. ET. Brighton and Hove Albion plays at home against West Ham United as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Newcastle United is home against  Ipswich Town on the USA Network as a -2.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3.5. Fulham are at Southampton as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Wolverhampton hosts Leicester City as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. 

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Betting the Zig-Zag Theory in the NBA Playoffs

by Wayne Root

Friday, Apr 25, 2025

WHAT IS THE ZIG-ZAG THEORY?For those of you who haven’t heard of the zig-zag theory before, we wouldn’t blame you thinking it’s some kind of wacky back and forth strategy for placing bets.We promise, there’s way more to it than that on this page.If you’re a follower of the NBA or NHL, especially betting on these leagues, chances are you’ve come across the zig-zag theory before. This betting strategy is typically applied to basketball and hockey because they both employ a similar playoff format.The basic idea is that the team coming off a loss is more likely to cover the spread in the next game. Not only are they more motivated after losing, sportsbooks also adjust the odds in their favor for the next game.HOW DOES THE ZIG-ZAG THEORY WORK?In a nutshell, the zig-zag theory suggests that when a team loses a game, you should bet on them to cover the spread in the game directly after. Banking on a team bouncing back from a loss is an important part of the theory, but it aims to go deeper than that. It also takes into account which team is home and which is away and the travel necessary during the playoffs.The zig-zag theory is mostly applied to betting on the NBA and NHL because both leagues have the same playoff format. Players in the NBA and NHL are forced to travel more with the longer 2-2-1-1-1 format for the playoffs. With the amount of travel required for playoff teams in these leagues, the zig-zag theory is especially relevant.HOME ADVANTAGE IN ZIG-ZAG THEORYAt first glance, you might be wondering how the home advantage factors into zig-zag betting theory. Is it simply the home team having the advantage by being on the home court?The zig-zag theory aims to go deeper than that and it boils down to a mix between home-court advantage and momentum in the series. There are different ways of applying this theory depending on how a certain team is doing in a series matchup.Let’s look at some common scenarios to see how you can use the zig-zag theory to help choose the winning team.SERIES MOMENTUMThis one comes with a big caveat, especially after we went over some of the most likely odds for a team coming off of a loss early in the series.Momentum is a funny thing. Take our above stat, with lower-seeded teams winning 75% of the time at home after losing two straight games.Momentum is definitely a factor and it’s worth also considering how a team lost and how that affects the momentum. Does a blowout loss shake up a team so badly you can’t even imagine them winning the next game? Was a close loss, perhaps from a blown lead, demoralizing enough that taking the losing team to win the next game seems foolish?The bottom line is that you should look at the numbers and stats in a series first, but also consider the less cut and dry factors that can come into FACTORS TO LOOK FOR WHEN BETTING ZIG-ZAG THEORYKeep an eye out for these special circumstances and you might discover a profitable spot to use the zig-zag theory:Home Team Goes Up 1-0This is a scenario that happens approximately 53% of the time in the NBA and NHL combined. Statistics in the NBA show that if the home team wins Game 1, they have a 65% chance of winning the series.In the NHL, those odds shoot up all the way to 76%, with the most likely outcome there being that the home team wins the series in six games.If the home team goes up 1-0 it’s a great opportunity to bet on the losing team in the next game.Home Team Goes Up 2-0Betting the underdog on this third game is one of the most common ways that bettors play the zig-zag theory. The underlying strategy is that after the lower-seeded team loses the first two games on the road, they will play their hearts out in Game 3, on home ice, when the series is still within reach.Between the NBA and the NHL, the lower-seeded team ends up winning nearly 60% of the time when they go back home after losing the first two games. In a world where many of the odds are near 50%, placing a bet knowing that the historical odds are near 60% is a huge advantage.Home Team Loses First GameOf course, the home team doesn’t always win their opening game at home. When the lower-seeded team is able to win that first game, placing bets on the higher-seeded team to bounce back in Game 2 is usually a shrewd move.While momentum is a funny and sometimes unpredictable thing, odds are that the home team plays a better game on home ice in Game 2. Rough odds suggest that higher-seeded teams in the NHL and NBA teams win 75% of the time in Game 2 when they’re coming off of a loss.INJURIES CAN INFLUENCE POINT SPREAD AND THIS THEORY Google can save your life on this one if you haven’t been paying attention.This is something you MUST look into before placing your bets. If you aren’t fully immersed in the sport you’re betting on or haven’t been paying close attention, a quick Google search of a team’s injury report can save you lots of money if you do it before making a bet.In sports, injuries happen. That’s especially true in a physical league like the NHL. Make sure you’re looking in the injury reports for both teams to see if it’s significant to your bets.

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NBA System of the Week

by Al McMordie

Thursday, Apr 24, 2025

The NBA Playoffs are underway, with the top three teams (Thunder, Cavaliers, Celtics) all sprinting out to 2-0 series leads.  The other five series have been more competitive, with all but one (Pacers/Bucks) sitting at 1-game-apiece.My preseason pick this season was on the Celtics to repeat as champions, and they're the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference.  Boston opened its 7-game series with a 103-86 win over Orlando (as a 12.5-point home favorite), and then followed that up with a 109-100 victory (as a 10.5-point home favorite).Boston failed to cover the point spread in its Game 2 triumph, and that leads us into this week's NBA Playoff system.What we want to do is play on any defending NBA champion on the road after failing to cover the spread in a home playoff game.Since 1991, our system has gone 46-17, 73% ATS.The Celtics have been installed as a 5.5-point road favorite in Game 3, on Friday.Consider laying the points.Good luck, as always,Al McMordie

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 04/24/2025

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Apr 24, 2025

The Thursday sports card features NBA, NHL, and MLB action.The National Basketball Association continues its playoff season with three games. The New York Knicks travel to Detroit to play the Pistons on TNT at 7:05 p.m. ET as a 1-point road favorite with the total set at 213.5. The Oklahoma City Thunder play in Memphis against the Grizzlies on TNT at 9:35 p.m. ET as an 8.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 226.5. The Los Angeles Clippers host the Denver Nuggets on NBA TV at 10:05 p.m. ET as a 5-point favorite with a total of 213.5. The National Hockey League playoffs continue with four games on its slate. The Tampa Bay Lightning play at home against the Florida Panthers on TBS/truTV/Max at 6:40 p.m. ET as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Ottawa Senators are home against the Toronto Maple Leafs on ESPN2 as a -115 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Vegas Golden Knights are in Minnesota to take on the Minnesota Wild on TBS/truTV/Max at 9:10 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Winnipeg Jets visit St. Louis to play the Blues on ESPN2 at 9:40 p.m. ET as a -120 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. Major League Baseball has nine games on its schedule. The Minnesota Twins host the Chicago White Sox at 1:10 p.m. ET. The Twins tap Chris Paddack to pitch against the White Sox’s Shane Smith. Minnesota is a -230 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Boston Red Sox play at home against the Seattle Mariners at 1:35 p.m. ET. Garrett Crochet takes the ball for the Red Sox to battle Bryan Woo for the Mariners. Boston is a -170 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Kansas City Royals are home against the Colorado Rockies in the first game of their doubleheader at 2:10 p.m. ET. The Royals send out Cole Ragans to face the Rockies’ German Marquez. Kansas City is a -258 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The San Francisco Giants host the Milwaukee Brewers at 3:45 p.m. ET. Landen Roupp takes the ball for the Giants to challenge Tobias Myers for the Brewers. San Francisco is a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The second game of the Rockies/Royals doubleheader starts at 5:40 p.m. ET. The Rockies turn to Chase Dollander to pitch against the Royals’ Michael Lorenzen. The Washington Nationals play at home against the Baltimore Orioles at 6:45 p.m. ET. Mackenzie Gore gets the start for the Nationals to take on Cade Povich for the Orioles. Washington is a -112 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Los Angeles Angels are home against the Pittsburgh Pirates at 9:29 p.m. ET. The Angels send out Tyler Anderson to go against the Pirates’ Carmen Mlodzinski. Los Angeles is a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Tampa Bay Rays at 9:40 p.m. ET. Corbin Burnes takes the hill for the Diamondbacks to pitch against Drew Rasmussen for the Rays. Arizona is a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Texas Rangers play on the road against the Athletics at 10:05 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5.

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