Anatomy of Handicapping the Kentucky Derby Winner
Sovereignty was my Best Bet to win the Kentucky Derby this year. Trainer Bill Mott and jockey Junior Alvarado are proven duo together — and I expected they had this horse ready to run the best race of life. He won at Churchill Downs in Grade 3 Street Sense last October — so he was proven on the track. He has been steadily improving in his five starts although his second-place finish in his last race at the Florida Derby might raise some eyebrows. Frankly, it looked like Mott took it easy on this horse in preparation for that race since his Kentucky Derby slot was all but assured. His training had been great in what was an ideal preparation for the first of the Triple Crown races. Sovereignty is a closer so handling the 1 1/4 mile distance should be fine. His Best Beyer number was 95 which is solid but not spectacular — but his Beyer rating of 92 in his last race at the Florida Derby suggests he was being eased into the Derby. An hour before the race, Sovereignty was at 9-1 odds. The last nine winners of the Kentucky Derby have come in at 8:1 or higher odds. Given the rain that day, these horses were running in the slop which creates a significant wild card for the top favorites since only a handful of the horses in the field have experience in the rain or mud. The betting favorite was Journalism running out of the #8 pole position at 7:2 odds at post time. I considered that underlay value. His jockey Umberto Rispoli lacked significant Derby experience. The fact that four of his five races featured just four other horses was a big red flag since there were more horses in that race than he had faced in his entire career. California horses do not engage in quite as stiff of competition out west.Sovereignty drew the #18th pole position which presented a challenge being that far wide. But Alvarado was able to maneuver his horse into the middle of the pack. He was then able to make a move in the muck in the second half of the race — and it ended up being a duel with Journalism. Sovereignty proved to be the better racehorse that day by pulling away for the victory by 1 1/2 lengths. His post-time odds settled at 7:1. Interestingly, Sovereignty posted a Beyer figure of 105 in winning the derby. That result supported my speculation that Mott was holding back letting this horse fire away at the Florida Derby in his final tune-up before the Kentucky Derby. Beyer figures are a helpful tool when analyzing horse races — but handicappers need to remember that they are not necessarily predictive. It measures past results — yet the goal of trainers (and the owners of the horse) is to win the biggest prizes. And horse owners like to bet on their horses so better odds generate bigger cashed tickets. If Sovereignty had posted a 105 Beyer number at the Florida Derby, then he probably would have become the top favorite for the Kentucky Derby. But by racking up enough points to ensure entry into the derby before the Florida Derby, Mott earned the luxury to hold Sovereignty back for the Kentucky Derby — and get better odds for his horse. Sovereignty will not race at the Preakness Stakes which does not surprise me. He may have been at a disadvantage against some of the speedier horses at Pimlico which is 1/16th of a mile shorter than the Kentucky Derby at 1 3/16 miles. Mott will surely prepare Sovereignty to return for the Belmont Stakes next month which at 1 1/2 miles better suits its closing strength.Best of luck — Frank.
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