IIHF World Junior Hockey Championship Preview

by Sean Murphy

Friday, Dec 11, 2020

The 2020-21 IIHF World Junior Hockey Championship gets underway on Christmas Day (provided all teams can get through the Covid protocols and ice full squads prior to that), helping fill the void for hockey bettors until the NHL makes its long-awaited return in mid-January (that's been thrown around as a possible start date anyway). Group A features defending champion (and tournament host) Canada along with Finland, Switzerland, Slovakia and Germany. Group B has last year's tournament runner-up Russia, Sweden, USA, Czech Republic and Austria. Here's how the odds shake out entering the tournament.Canada -130USA +375Russia +500Sweden +650Finland +725Czech Republic +2000Switzerland +5000Slovakia +5500Germany +7500Austria +10000It should come as no surprise that I'm picking Canada to take home its second straight Gold Medal as it ices a 'Dream Team' - essentially the fourth time it has done so in tournament history (three times previously due to NHL labor issues). Yes, we're being asked to pay a tariff to back the tournament favorite but that price might actually look cheap as this tournament goes on.The Canadians certainly land in the softer of the two groups, with only Finland likely to pose much of a challenge. While that can sometimes hurt teams as they enter the knockout stage of the tournament, here I believe it helps Canada with most of the players having not seen real game action in months. It should give them a chance to ease into things and ultimately ramp up leading into the quarter-final round, with the game against Finland coming on the final day of the group stage on New Year's Eve. Team Canada's roster is absolutely loaded with depth and talent, particularly on the blue line where this tournament is often won and lost. Canada's top defensive pairing is likely to feature two returning players from last year's golden squad, Bowen Byram and Jamie Drysdale. Byram, a first-round pick in this year's NHL draft, could very well be the best all-around player in the tournament. Drysdale made last year's squad as a 17-year old and should take a big leap forward as a cornerstone on the blue line this year. Up front, Canada is brimming with talent. Kirby Dach will lead the group after being loaned from the Chicago Blackhawks, who he played a full season with in 2019-20. As far as forwards go, only Patrick Kane saw more ice time than Dach in the 'Hawks brief playoff run in August - a testament to just how high Chicago is on the young forward. Dylan Cozens was a big factor in Canada's Gold Medal victory last January and is primed to contend for the title of 'best forward' in this year's tournament as well. You can go up and down the list - Canada simply has no holes up front (as evidenced by the fact that it was forced to cut first-round NHL draft pick Hendrix Lapierre on Thursday). If you're looking for a potential dark horse winner I would suggest Finland at a +725 return. With Covid concerns swirling and a number of teams already missing some key players due to the protocols in place, this is certainly a tournament where anything could happen - within reason of course. Finland has excellent pedigree in this tournament, often rising up to take the Gold Medal when you least expect it (it has taken the gold on five occasions). There's no question it will be a 'tough out' and we're being offered a generous price to back it in advance of puck drop. 

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NCAA Friday Night Football: Nevada/San Jose State Preview

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Dec 11, 2020

The college football nightcap Friday is on the CBS Sports Network at 10 PM ET with a spot in the Mountain West Conference championship game at stake. Nevada faces off against San Jose State with the Spartans designated as the home team at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas. San Jose State has relocated to Las Vegas, given Santa Clara County ordinances prohibiting contact sports given COVID concerns. They are temporarily sharing Sam Boyd Stadium as their home along with New Mexico who is also dealing with local prohibitions of contact sports. The Spartans raised their record to a 5-0 mark with their 35-25 win at Hawai’i last week. Running backs Tyler Nevens and Kairee Robinson combined to rush for 263 yards. Nick Starkel completed only 11 of his 23 passes of 167 yards, but he did toss two touchdown passes to one interception. The former Texas A&M and Arkansas quarterback is completing 66.2% of his passes for 1147 yards with 11 touchdown passes and three interceptions. He leads an offense that is scoring 30.4 points-per-game and averaging 419.2 yards-per-game. The strength of this Spartans’ team in head coach Brent Brennan’s fourth year with the program is their defense. San Jose State is 12th in the nation by allowing only 17.0 points-per-game and the 347.2 yards-per-game they are giving up is 30th in the country. The Spartans have registered 15 sacks in their five games. This team did catch perhaps two lucky breaks with their games against Fresno State and Boise State canceled because of COVID issues. Those teams have respective 3-2 and 4-1 winning records on the season.Nevada is a game behind in the loss column from San Jose State with a 6-1 mark after they defeated Fresno State last week by a 37-26 score. Sophomore quarterback Carson Strong completed 23 of 39 passes for 354 yards with five touchdown passes and two interceptions to lead the Wolf Pack to the victory. Nevada won that game despite giving up 599 yards, including 485 yards in the air. While the Spartans have evolved into a physical running team, Starkel did passes for 467 yards against New Mexico in October. Strong is completing 69.5% of his passes for 2327 yards with 21 touchdown passes and only four interceptions. He leads an offense that is scoring 31.3 points-per-game while averaging 442.1 yards-per-game. The Wolf Pack are ninth in the nation by averaging 334.4 passing yards-per-game. Nevada is allowing 21.9 points-per-game along with 361.1 yards-per-game. Their lone loss was at Hawai’i by a 24-21 score.The winner of this game will play in the Mountain West Conference championship game next week. San Jose State will host the game at Sam Boyd with a win. The Spartans still advance with a loss in this game if Boise State loses to Wyoming tomorrow. Nevada would host that game in Reno. The Wolf Pack plays Boise State if both those teams win this week.San Jose State opened as the favorite, but line movement at BookMaker now has Nevada as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 59.

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NCAA Friday Night Football: Arizona/Arizona State Preview

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Dec 11, 2020

The Friday night game on ESPN features a battle for the oldest rivalry trophy in college football. Arizona State and Arizona have played for the Territorial Cup since 1899. The winner of this year’s incarnation of this game will also earn their first victory of this abbreviated season. Arizona State has only played two games this year, which is the fewest for any team that did not forego the season given COVID concerns. They had not played for three weeks given COVID cancellations before taking the field last week in a 25-18 upset loss to UCLA. Head coach Herm Edwards conceded his team started slowly given the layoff. The scoreboard validated that assessment as the Sun Devils trailed the Bruins by a 17-0 margin before scoring 18 of the final 25 points. Arizona State opened their season with a 28-27 loss at USC in a game where the Sun Devils surrendered two touchdowns in the final three minutes to lose that contest. This team returned twelve starters from the group that won their final three games last season for an 8-5 season that culminated with a 20-14 win against Florida State in the Sun Bowl. Jayden Daniels completed 21 of 35 passes for 225 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the loss to UCLA. The sophomore quarterback has completed 32 of 58 passes for just a 55.8% completion percentage for 359 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Daniels is adjusting to a new offense under first-year offensive coordinator Zak Hill. While Arizona State did have seven spring practices, the disruption of the fall practice routine has not been ideal. The Sun Devils have struggled to stop the pass as they rank 118th in the nation by allowing 286.5 passing yards-per-game. Starting defensive backs, Jack Jones and Aashari Crosswell, were suspended to begin the season, and Crosswell has since opted-out for the rest of the season to prepare for the NFL draft. Arizona has lost eleven games in a row with their 0-4 start to this season. Ten of those losses have been by double-digits to firmly place head coach Kevin Sumlin on the hot seat in the third year with the program. The Wildcats lost at home to Colorado last week by a 24-13 score. Losing quarterback Grant Gunnell to an injury on the first snap in their game with UCLA two weeks ago has not helped matters. The sophomore completed 62.5% of his passes last season in his freshman season with 1239 yards on 155 attempts with nine touchdown passes and only one interception to raise expectations for this year. He is questionable with his shoulder injury for this game.Freshman Will Plummer has completed 36 of 67 passes in his absence of 305 yards. He has thrown three interceptions without a touchdown pass. He has not been helped by an offensive line that has allowed 4.25 sacks-per-game, which is the fourth-worst in the nation. Arizona is struggling to complete drives as well, as they rank 109th in the nation red zone offense. Arizona surrendered 407 yards on the ground to the Buffaloes last week. They are second-to-last in the nation by allowing 273.5 rushing yards-per-game.Arizona State has won the last three games in this rivalry after they defeated the Wildcats on November 30th of last season by a 24-14 score. BetAnySports lists the Sun Devils as an 11.5-point favorite with the total set at 56. The ESPN broadcast starts at 7 PM ET.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: EPL, NCAA Basketball and NCAA Football Preview

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Dec 11, 2020

The Friday sports card features three games in college football as well as a light card in college basketball and the opening match in Matchweek 12 in the English Premier League.The college football card begins at 6 PM ET with UTEP playing at North Texas. The Charlotte/Marshall contest was canceled after injuries and COVID issues with the Thundering Herd, which left them without enough players at key positions. The Utah/Colorado game scheduled for 9:30 PM ET was moved to Saturday at noon after Michigan/Ohio State was canceled. UTEP takes the field for the first time since November 14th when they lost to UTSA by a 52-21 score, which lowered their record to a 3-4 mark. North Texas fell to 3-5 on the season with a 42-31 loss at home to Louisiana Tech as a 1-point underdog. The Green Mean host this game as a 10-point favorite with the total set at 64 (all odds from BetOnline). The Friday night game on ESPN features a battle for the oldest rivalry trophy in college football. Arizona State and Arizona have played for the Territorial Cup since 1899. The winner of this year’s incarnation of this game will also earn their first victory of this abbreviated season. Arizona State has only played two games this year, which is the fewest for any team that did not forego the season given COVID concerns. They had not played for three weeks given COVID cancellations before taking the field last week in a 25-18 upset loss to UCLA. Head coach Herm Edwards conceded his team started slowly given the layoff. The scoreboard validated that assessment as the Sun Devils trailed the Bruins by a 17-0 margin before scoring 18 of the final 25 points. Arizona has lost eleven games in a row with their 0-4 start to this season. Ten of those losses have been by double-digits to firmly place head coach Kevin Sumlin on the hot seat in the third year with the program. The Wildcats lost at home to Colorado last week by a 24-13 score. The Sun Devils are an 11.5-point favorite, with the total set at 55.5. The ESPN broadcast starts at 7 PM ET.The college football nightcap is on the CBS Sports Network at 10 PM ET with Nevada playing San Jose State with the Spartans the designated home team at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas. San Jose State has relocated given local county ordinances prohibiting contact sports given COVID concerns. The Spartans raised their record to a 5-0 mark with their 35-25 win at Hawai’i last week. Nevada is a game behind with a 6-1 mark after they defeated Fresno State last week by a 37-26 score. The winner of this game will play in the Mountain West Conference championship game next week.The college basketball card involves four games on national television. At 5 PM ET on ESPNU, Charlotte hosts Appalachian State as a 3.5-point favorite with the total at 131.5.Three more nationally-televised games take place at 7 PM ET. Kansas plays at home against UMKC as a 24-point favorite with an over/under of 131.5. Villanova travels to Georgetown as an 11.5-point road favorite on FS1 with the total at 142.5. Iona plays at Fairfield on ESPNU as a 3.5-point favorite with the over/under at 135.5. Matchweek 12 of the English Premier League starts on Friday, with Leeds United hosting West Ham United at 3 PM ET as a -0.25 goal-line favorite with the total at 3. The NBC Sports Network has the broadcast.

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Ness Notes: Thursday, Dec 10

by Larry Ness

Thursday, Dec 10, 2020

This column will be available Monday through Friday (posted no later than 1:00 ET), EXCLUSIVELY at BigAl.com. I like to call it my daily 'random thoughts' on the sports betting world, although I'll pass along that my therapist refers to it as "thoughtful commentary."CBB: No. 4 Michigan St was supposed to play at No. 18 Virginia in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge last night but the game was canceled. That leaves higher ranked teams 8-4 SU and 5-7 ATS in games between ranked opponents. Three games between ranked and unranked opponents were postponed or canceled on Wednesday but six such games were played, highlighted by No. 2 Baylor finally playing its home opener. It marked the first game for the Bears since a much-anticipated showdown against No. 1 Gonzaga was called off only 90 minutes before tipoff Saturday, and after expected home-opening opponent Nicholls State had virus issues like the Bulldogs. The "replacement" was the Stephen F Austin Lumberjacks, who beat Baylor 59-58 the last time the teams had met (in 2018) and who broke Duke's 150-game home winning streak against non-conference opponents with an 85-83 OT win last November when Duke was the nation's top-ranked team. Stephen F Austin went 28-3 last season, winning its final 15 games before the 2019-20 campaign came to a sudden stop during conference tournament week and the NCAA Tournament was canceled because of the virus. Add in a 3-0 start this season and the Lumberjacks owned an 18-game winning streak. So much for that! Baylor had not played since beating Illinois 82-69 on Dec 2. However, Baylor jumped out to a 38-22 advantage at halftime and didn't miss a beat following the intermission, as five Bears scored in double digits as Baylor cruised to an 83-52 win.The other five ranked teams in action against unranked opponents also won making it a 6-0 sweep (4-2 ATS). Y-T-D, ranked teams are now 71-9 (.888) SU and 44-34-2 (56.4%) ATS vs unranked opponents. It's a 'light' day of action in Thursday college hoops and the lone game scheduled between ranked and unranked teams was No. 1 Gonzaga hosting Southern but it's been canceled. However, there is a matchup of ranked opponents, as No. 23 Arizona St (3-1) will host No. 24 San Diego St (4-0). The Aztecs visit Tempe having entered the AP poll for the first time this season on Monday, after opening unranked despite the fact that last season's team opened 26-0 and was 30-2 when the season was shut down for the virus. San Diego State has been ranked in the AP top-25 in 16 of the last 18 polls dating to last season. Brian Dutcher spent 18 seasons as an assistant to Steve Fisher (first at Michigan and then at San Diego St) and won 22 and 21 games in his first two seasons before last year's 30-win one. However, while he likely couldn't be "picked out of a lineup," that's NOT the case for ASU head coach Bobby Hurley, who starred for a Duke team which won back-to-back national championships (1991 and 1992) and is part of the Hurley legacy of coaches. This is Hurley's sixth season at ASU and he's led the team to an overall 93-69 (.574) record in his first five with two NCAA appearances which have produced ZERO tourney wins. The Sun Devils are favored by three points.NFL Week 14 kicks off with Thursday Night Football from SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles when the 6-0 NE Patriots visit the 8-4 LA Rams (8;20 ET on FOX/NFL Network). The Patriots have won FOUR of their last five, including a 45-0 'spanking' over the Chargers last Sunday. That game was played SoFi Stadium and New England head coach Bill Belichick and his team celebrated that triumph by staying in Los Angeles and working out at UCLA as opposed to making a pair of cross-country flights, as the Pats are right back in SoFi Stadium on Thursday night to face the Rams. Arizona, the LA Rams and Seattle were all 6-3 and tied atop the NFC West entering Week 11 but as Week 14 dawns, the Rams and Seahawks are tied at 8-4 (Rams currently own the tiebreaker), while the Cards have fallen off the pace at 6-6.The Rams are favored by five points and the over/under is 44 1/2.COVID has wreaked havoc on the CFB schedule and I will push my CFB preview to Friday and then do a "special" Saturday edition of Ness Notes to cover NFL Week 14.Good luck...Larry

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NCAA Saturday Night Football: USC/UCLA Preview

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Dec 10, 2020

The Saturday night game on ABC features the Battle for Los Angeles between USC and UCLA, with much on the line for the Trojans. A victory for USC would clinch their spot in the Pac-12 conference championship game on December 18th. Even if Colorado is tied with the Trojans with an unbeaten record in conference play, USC advances from the second-tie breaker (after head-to-head since these two teams did not play this season) with their additional victory against Pac-12 South opponents. A win on Saturday would also raise the Trojans' record to 5-0, which would be the first time they started a season with at least five straight victories since the 2006 season. USC will be playing on a short week after they defeated Washington State on Sunday night by a 38-13 score. Kedon Slovis completed 25 of 32 passes for 287 yards with five touchdown passes and no interceptions in the win. The sophomore is completing 72.1% of his passes for 1257 yards with ten touchdown passes and only two interceptions. Slovis leads an offensive attack that is 17th in the nation by averaging 313.6 passing yards-per-game. The Trojans are scoring 33.3 points-per-game while averaging 424.5 yards-per-game. USC holds its opponents to 21.8 points-per-game along with 358.5 yards-per-game. Clay Helton’s team is second in the nation with a +1.5 net turnover margin per game. UCLA raised their record to 3-2 last Saturday with their 25-18 upset victory at Arizona State as a field goal underdog. The win gave the Bruins a better than .500 record for the first time since October 21st, 2017. Quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson returned to the field for the first time in three games after being out with COVID. The three-year starter completed 18 of 24 passes for 192 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. He also rushed for another 49 yards with a touchdown. Thomson-Robinson is completing 57.8% of his passes for 691 yards in his three games with eight touchdown passes and just two interceptions. He has also rushed for 210 yards with a 5.8 yards-per-carry average with another three touchdowns.  UCLA is 16th in the nation by averaging 227.6 rushing yards-per-game. The Bruins are scoring 32.6 points-per-game while averaging 430.6 yards-per-game. They are holding their opponents to 24.7 points-per-game along with 373.0 yards-per-game. UCLA has held three of their last four opponents to 18 points or less. Their two losses were by six points at Colorado and three points at Oregon (without Thompson-Robinson).Thompson-Robinson passed for 367 yards with three touchdowns against USC last year while rushing for another 64 yards with a touchdown on the ground. Yet he was bested by Slovis, who passed for 515 yards with four touchdowns to lead the Trojans to a 52-35 victory on November 23rd. USC has won 16 of the last 21 meetings between these city rivals. BetAnySports lists USC as a 2.5-point road favorite with the total set at 62. The ABC broadcast begins at 7:30 PM ET.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball Preview

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Dec 10, 2020

The Thursday sports card features action in college basketball and college football along with the start of Week 14 in the NFL.Two games kick off Week 15 in college football. At 6:30 PM ET, Florida Atlantic plays on the road at Southern Mississippi. FAU had their four-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in a 20-3 upset loss at Georgia Southern as a 2.5-point favorite. The Owls still have hopes to play in the Conference USA championship game with their 4-1 conference record (5-2 overall). They are tied with Marshall in the East Division but need the Thundering Herd to lose on Friday to Charlotte since they lost their head-to-head meeting with them earlier this season. First-year head coach Willie Taggart has a decision to make at quarterback after he benched freshman Javion Posey making his third start of the season last week after he was responsible for three turnovers. Junior Nick Tronti came on in relief but had little success in moving the offense. Southern Miss takes the field after the last playing on November 21st in a 23-20 loss to UTSA as a 9.5-point underdog. The Golden Eagles have lost four of their last five games to see their record dip to a 2-7 mark. The program did make the decision this week to hire Tulane offensive coordinator Will Hall as their next head coach. Scotty Walden has served as the interim head coach since Jay Hopson resigned as head coach in early September. Walden is down to his third quarterback after Jack Abraham entered the transfer portal, and then Tate Whatley endured a shoulder injury in the game against the Roadrunners. Sophomore Trey Lowe gets the start under center.FAU is an 8-point road favorite with the total set at 43.5 (all lines from BetOnline). The CBS Sports Network has the broadcast.Georgia Tech hosts Pittsburgh at 7 PM ET. The Yellow Jackets have lost four of their last five games after their 23-13 loss at North Carolina State last Saturday as a 7-point underdog. Pittsburgh last played on November 28th in a 52-17 score at Clemson. The Panthers are -6.5-point road favorites with the over/under at 54.5.A double-header on FS1 highlights the college basketball card. At 8 PM ET, UMKC visits Minnesota with the Golden Gophers a 19.5-point favorite with the total at 137. The nightcap features San Diego State visiting Arizona State in a battle of two ranked teams. The Aztecs are 24th in the Associated Press poll, one spot behind the 23rd ranked Sun Devils. Arizona State is a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 145.The NFL Thursday night game on Fox is a rematch of Super Bowl LIII where the New England Patriots defeated the Los Angeles Rams by a 13-3 score back on February 3rd, 2019.The Rams have won three of their last four games with their 38-28 win at Arizona on Sunday as a 2.5-point favorite. That victory, along with Seattle’s 17-12 upset loss to the New York Giants, placed head coach Sean McVay’s team in a tie for first place with the Seahawks with an 8-4 record. New England has won four of their last five games since November with their 45-0 victory at Los Angeles against the Chargers. The Patriots are still two games behind Miami along with Tennessee and Indianapolis, who all have 8-4 records to set the bar for the final spots in the AFC playoff hunt. The Rams are a 5-point favorite with the total set at 45. Kickoff is at 8:20 PM ET.

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Ness Notes: Wednesday, Dec 9

by Larry Ness

Wednesday, Dec 09, 2020

This column will be available Monday through Friday (posted no later than 1:00 ET), EXCLUSIVELY at BigAl.com. I like to call it my daily 'random thoughts' on the sports betting world, although I'll pass along that my therapist refers to it as "thoughtful commentary."NFL Week 13: Baltimore's Lamar Jackson, back in action for the first time since Nov 22, threw for just 107 yards (two TDs) but also added 94 yards rushing (one TD) to lead the Ravens to a 34-17 win over the sad-sack Cowboys on Tuesday. The Ravens ended a THREE-game losing streak while rushing for 294 yards, as the Cowboys fell to 3-9 with their SIXTH loss in their last seven games  (Dallas is the NFL's worst pointspread team at 2-10). Carolina and Tampa Bay had byes in Week 13 (no more byes the rest of the way), so we had 15 games, although there was a rare neutral-site game (not in London or Mexico), as the Bills played the 49ers in Arizona due to COVID-19 restrictions in Santa Clara County. Home teams continued to struggle, going 5-9 SU and 4-10 ATS (home dogs were 1-3 SU and ATS). The Y-T-D numbers now reveal that home teams are 95-95-1 (.500) SU, while going 89-100-2 (47.1%) ATS. Home dogs are 10-47 (.213) SU but 36-29-2 (55.4%) ATS. Week 13 games averaged 48.8 points with six going over, eight under and one push. There have now been 93 overs, 94 unders and five pushes.College hoops: There had been just nine games between ranked opponents entering Tuesday (the higher ranked team was 6-3 SU and 4-5 ATS), which served up an impressive tripleheader of such contests. No. 3 Iowa was at No. 16 North Carolina and North Carolina's defense slowed Iowa center Luka Garza, folding him to 16 points (he entered averaging 34 PPG), ending his streak of 19 straight games scoring 20 points or more. However, he added 14 rebounds for his 24th career double-double and Garza saw THREE other players join him in double digits, led by Jordan Bohannon's 24 points. The Hawkeyes won (and covered) 93-80. No. 5 Kansas hosted No. 8 Creighton with Jalen Wilson scoring 23 points and adding 10 rebounds, hitting a go-ahead three-pointer for Kansas with 42 seconds remaining. Creighton's Marcus Zegarowski (the Big East's preseason P-O-Y) missed the last of three foul shots, allowing the Jayhawks to escape with a 73-72 win (no cover). Last but not least, No. 6 Illinois won 83-68 at No. 10 Duke. Illinois had lost 11 of 13 road matchups against top-10 opponents, with both wins coming in 1989 from the "Flyin' Illini" team that reached the Final Four. However, they had little trouble in this one, as the Blue Devils missed their first 12 three-pointers Duke had been 19-2 all time in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, including 9-0 at Cameron. So much for that! Higher ranked teams are now 8-4 SU but 5-7 ATS in games between ranked opponents. No. 4 Michigan St was supposed to play at No. 18 Virginia in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge tonight but the game was canceled.There were FOUR games between ranked and unranked opponents on Tuesday, with ranked teams going 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. The SU loser was previously 4-0 and No. 15 Va Tech getting routed at home by Penn St. That leaves ranked teams 65-9 (.878) SU but a much more modest 40-32-2 (55.6%) ATS. There are SIX such games on Wednesday's schedule, most notably No. 2 Baylor hosting Stephen F Austin. The 3-0 Bears will play their home opener against the 3-0 Lumberjacks in Waco, Texas. Stephen F. Austin replaces Nicholls State, which saw its scheduled game versus Baylor called off due to a positive COVID-19 test within the Colonels' program. Baylor last played a week ago Wednesday, when the Bears posted an 82-69 victory over Illinois. Stephen F. Austin recorded its THIRD straight double-digit winning margin with a 97-79 victory over LSU Alexandria on Sunday. Baylor won't look past the Lumberjacks, who beat the Bears 59-58 the last time the teams met (Dec 18, 2018). If Baylor's memory does not go back that far, how about this? The Lumberjacks broke Duke's 150-game home winning streak against non-conference opponents with an 85-83 OT win last November when Duke was the nation's top-ranked team. The Lumberjacks became the first non-ACC school to beat Duke at Cameron since St. John's in February 2000. Baylor is favored by 23 1/2-points. CFB recap: Higher ranked teams entered last week 21-5 (.808) SU and 19-7 (73.1%) ATS in meetings between AP top-25 opponents in the college football season to-date. We saw just two such matchups last week, with No. 10 Indiana winning 14-6 at No. 18 Wisconsin and No. 8 BYU losing its first game of the season 22-17 at No. 14 Coastal Carolina. The Hoosiers won without starting QB Penix, relying on its defense, holding the Badgers to just two FGs. Indiana won at Camp Randall for the first time since 2001 and allowed the fewest points to a ranked opponent since 1993! No. 25 Liberty was supposed to play at No. 14 Coastal Carolina but after COVID-19 issues prevented the Flames from playing in the game, BYU jumped at the chance to add a game, hoping a win at a ranked opponent would give them some extra 'street cred!' So much for that. Coastal Carolina contained BYU's high-powered offense, holding the Cougars to just 17 points in the five-point win. The Chanticleers are now 10-0, the first team in SBC history to open a season 10-0. Higher ranked teams are now 22-6 (.786) SU and 20-8 (71.4%) ATS in matchups of ranked opponents.There were 17 games between ranked and unranked teams for the week, including the top-six schools in the AP and CFP rankings all in action. All six won and only Notre Dame failed to cover. Of the remaining 11 ranked teams, they went 7-4 SU and 6-5 ATS against their unranked opponents. The "Biggest Loser" was No. 15 Marshall, which lost 20-0 at home to a Rice team that entered having played just THREE games on the season. The not-so Thundering Herd were favored by 24 1/2-points and became the first team off to a 7-0 start (or better) to get shut out by a team with a losing record (Rice entered 1-2) since TCU did the same to Texas back in 1961! Also losing were No. 19 Oklahoma St 29-22 at TCU plus two overrated Pac-12 schools, No. 21 Oregon (21-17 at Cal) and No. 23 Washington (31-26 at home to Stanford). When the 'dust had settled,' ranked teams finished 13-4 SU and 11-6 ATS. Doing the math, ranked teams (when facing an unranked opponent) are now 126-30 (.808) SU, while 'climbing back' to .500 ATS at 77-77-2. I say 'climbing back' because through Oct 31 ranked teams were just 36-53-1 (.404) ATS against unranked opponents. The 'battle' resumes on Thursday, with just two weeks left in CFB's regular season.I'll push my discussion regarding the AP poll and latest CFP rankings to Thursday's Notes, when I preview the upcoming CFB weekend. NFL Week 14 preview set for Friday.Good luck...Larry

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAA Basketball and UEFA Champions League Preview

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Dec 09, 2020

The Wednesday sports card features the continuation of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge and the Big East/Big 12 Battle in college basketball, along with the second half of MatchDay 6 of the group stage of the UEFA Champions League.The nationally-televised schedule of college basketball games begins at 5 PM ET, with Clemson hosting Maryland as a 2-point favorite with the total set at 135 on ESPN2. TCU plays at home against Providence on ESPNU as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 127.5. Michigan has Toledo visiting Ann Arbor for a 6 PM ET tip-off on FS1, which replaces their canceled game with North Carolina State in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge given COVID issues. The Wolverines are -13-point favorites with the total at 146.5. At 7:15 PM ET, Indiana travels to Florida State on ESPN with the Seminoles 3-point favorites and the over/under set at 139.5. Nebraska hosts Georgia Tech on ESPN2 as a 1-point favorite with the total at 147.5.Oklahoma plays at Xavier at 8 PM ET on FS1, with the Musketeers a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 146.5. Pepperdine hosts California at 9 PM ET on the CBS Sports Network with the Waves a 5-point favorite with the total set at 140. Pittsburgh visits Northwestern at 9:15 PM ET on ESPN2 with the Wildcats a 3.5-point favorite with the over/under at 142.The final eight matches in the UEFA Champions League Group Stage Matchday 6 take place this afternoon. These matches are all reverse fixtures of the games played on October 27th in the round-robin group stage six-match schedule.Two matches start at 12:55 PM ET. Ajax hosts Atalanta as a -0.25 goal line favorite with the total set at 3.5. Ajax must win this match to advance to the Round of 16 knockout stage, with Atalanta needing a draw. Liverpool visits Midtjylland as a -0.50 road favorite with an over/under of 2.75. The Reds have clinched the top seed from Group D in the Round of 16.Another six matches begin at 3 PM ET. Bayern Munich hosts Lokomotiv Moskva as a -1.75 goal line favorite with the total at 3.75. The Bavarians have already clinched the top seed in the Round of 16 from Group A. Atletico Madrid visits Salzburg as a -0.25 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 3. Salzburg must win this match to advance to the Round of 16, with Atletico Madrid needing one point from a draw.Inter Milan plays at home against Shakhtar Donetsk as a -1.75 goal line favorite with the total at 3.25. Inter Milan not only needs three points from a win but also the Real Madrid/Borussia Monchengladbach match to not end in a draw. Real Madrid plays at home against Borussia Monchengladbach as a -0.75 goal line favorite with an over/under of 3. Los Blancos must win this match to advance to the Round of 16, with Borussia Monchengladbach satisfied with a draw.Olympiacos takes on Porto at home as a -0.5 goal line favorite with a total of 2.25. Porto has already advanced to the Round of 16 in Group C with Olympiacos eliminated but playing for third place, which puts them in the Europa League. Manchester City plays at home at Etihad Stadium against Marseille as a -1.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 3. Man City has also advanced to the Round of 16 from Group C, with Marseille still jockeying for the possible Europa League consolation from third place in the group.All eight games are available on the CBS Sports All-Access package. Alternatively, the CBS Sports Network broadcasts a whip-around show during the six 3 PM ET games.

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NFL Thursday Night Football: Rams/Patriots Preview

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Dec 09, 2020

The NFL Thursday night game on Fox is a rematch of Super Bowl LIII where the New England Patriots defeated the Los Angeles Rams by a 13-3 score back on February 3rd, 2019.The Rams have won three of their last four games with their 38-28 win at Arizona on Sunday as a 2.5-point favorite. That victory, along with Seattle’s 17-12 upset loss to the New York Giants, placed head coach Sean McVay’s team in a tie for first place with the Seahawks with an 8-4 record. The Rams outgained the Cardinals by +231 yards while having their offense on the field for 38:53 minutes, which afforded them to gain 463 yards. Los Angeles averages 395.3 yards-per-game which is third-best in the NFL. Jared Goff completed 37 of 47 passes for 351 yards with a touchdown and an interception. The quarterback is completing 68.4% of his passes this season for 3372 yards with 17 touchdown passes but also ten interceptions. Los Angeles held the Cardinals to only 232 yards. The Rams are allowing 20.3 points-per-game while ranking second in the NFL by giving up just 291.6 yards-per-game.New England has won four of their last five games since November with their 45-0 victory at Los Angeles against the Chargers. The Patriots are still two games behind Miami along with Tennessee and Indianapolis, who all have 8-4 records to set the bar for the final spots in the AFC playoff hunt. New England gained only 291 yards against the Chargers, but their special teams scored two touchdowns with a 70-yard punt return and a 44-yard blocked field goal. Cam Newton completed 12 of 19 passes for only 69 yards, yet he did have a touchdown pass without an interception. Newton added another 48 rushing yards with two more touchdowns on the ground. He has completed 66.7% of his passes in his first year in New England for 2053 yards but with only five touchdown passes and nine interceptions. Newton has rushed for 435 yards with 11 touchdowns. The Patriots are averaging 342.3 yards-per-game which is 22nd in the league. Their 150.9 rushing yards-per-game average is the third-best mark. They are holding their opponents to 344.6 yards-per-game, which is the 12th best in the NFL.Both of these teams are relatively healthy, with neither team having a player sidelined from practice on Tuesday. The Patriots did have 14 players take part in limited practice sessions on Tuesday with three players from the Rams under similar practice constraints. New England has 11 players either on Injured Reserve or who are out indefinitely to injury, including left tackle Isaiah Wynn, running back Rex Burkhead, wide receiver Julian Edelman, and defensive tackle Beau Allen. Los Angeles has ten players on IR or out indefinitely, most notably left tackle Andrew Whitworth, linebacker Micah Kiser, and safety Taylor Rapp.BookMaker lists the Rams as a 6-point favorite with the total set at 44.5. Kickoff is at 8:20 PM ET.

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Ness Notes: Tuesday, Dec 8

by Larry Ness

Tuesday, Dec 08, 2020

This column will be available Monday through Friday (posted no later than 1:00 ET), EXCLUSIVELY at BigAl.com. I like to call it my daily 'random thoughts' on the sports betting world, although I'll pass along that my therapist refers to it as "thoughtful commentary."MNF: The Steelers had a three-point win over Tennessee in Week 7, a four-point win over Baltimore in Week and then a five-point win over sad-sack Dallas in Week 9. Back-to-back blowouts over the Bengals (36-10) and the Jags (27-3) followed but then it was a five-point win over the COVID-riddled Ravens in Week 12. Last night in Week 13, "the clock struck 12" for Pittsburgh, which after opening a 14-0 lead over Washington, walked away with a  23-17 loss. The 1972 Miami Dolphins remain alone as the lone team in the NFL's 101-year history to complete a perfect season (14-0 regular season and 3-0 in the playoffs, for 17-0). It was the THIRD straight win for Washington, which moved into a first-place tie with the NY Giants in the NFC East at 5-7. In the regularly scheduled Monday night game, Buffalo's Josh Allen threw TD passes to FOUR different receivers (he was 32-40 for 375 yards, his third-highest total of the season), as the 9-3 Bills held onto sole possession of first place in the AFC East with a 34-24 victory over the San Francisco 49ers at Glendale, Az (49ers were forced from their facility in Santa Clara County by heightened COVID-19 restrictions). The defending NFC champs fell to 5-7 and remain in last place in the NFC West with just four games remaining.NFL Week 13 finally wraps up with the 3-8 Cowboys in Baltimore to face the HUGELY disappointing 6-5 Ravens (went 14-2 in last year's regular season). The Ravens have lost THREE straight and FOUR of their past five. The NFL Network reported Sunday that the team will activate reigning league MVP Lamar Jackson and have him start on Tuesday but Ravens head coach John Harbaugh declined to discuss it. The 3-8 Cowboys are the worst team in the NFL's worst division and at 2-9 ATS, own the NFL's worst pointspread record. That's a lot of "worsts" for head coach Mike McCarthy, who was expected to be "just the right coach" to get the talented Cowboys to "live up to their potential." So much for that. Baltimore is favored by 7 1/2-points and the over/under is 45 1/2.New AP poll in CBB: The top-three schools remained the same in the second regular season AP poll. Gonzaga, Baylor and Iowa are 1-2-3 with each opening 3-0. Wisconsin lost 67-65 at Marquette and fell from No. 4 to No. 13. Taking over at No. 4 is Michigan St (up from No. 8) and Kansas is up to No. 5 (from No. 7). The rest of the top-10 is Illinois, Houston, Creighton, Villanova and Duke. Falling out to the poll was No. 20 Kentucky (see Monday's Notes for more details) and No. 21. Both San Diego St and Louisville have opened 4-0 and entered the poll for the first time this season at No. 24 and No. 25, respectively. Here's a couple of head-scratchers. Tennessee opened No. 12 in the preseason and remains at No. 12, without having played a game (that changes tonight / see below). Then there is Michigan, which opened No. 25 in the preseason poll but despite opening 4-0, the Wolverines have been the last team left out in each of the last two polls.Mon CBB: No. 19 Richmond was the only ranked team in action on Monday and hadn't played since it beat then-No. 10 Kentucky on Nov 29. The Spiders had to cancel two games last week after a positive COVID-19 test within the program and they announced the matchup with the Terriers on Saturday. Richmond scored the first 11 points of the game but Wofford shot 55% after halftime and took its first lead with 4:32 remaining. Richmond won 77-72 but never came close to covering. We've had just nine matchups between ranked teams so far with the higher ranked team going 6-3 SU and 4-5 ATS in the first nine games. However, Tuesday serves up an impressive tripleheader of such contests, No. 3 Iowa is at No. 16 North Carolina, No. 5 Kansas hosts No. 8 Creighton and No. 6 Illinois is at No. Duke. Here's a closer look.No. 3 Iowa (3-0) will welcome No. 16 North Carolina (3-1) to Carver-Hawkeye Arena in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Luka Garza (34.0 & 9.7) has arguably been the best player in the nation so far but the Hawkeyes have yet to be challenged in romps over North Carolina Central, Southern University and Western Illinois. That leaves coach Fran McCaffery eager to see how his team fares against the Tar Heels. North Carolina won its first three games of the season before dropping a last-second 69-67 decision against No. 17 Texas in the Maui Invitational championship game on Wednesday (Longhorns won it with 0.1 seconds to play). Iowa's No. 3 ranking is the school's highest since it was also No. 3 in the 2015-16 season. The Hawkeyes are favored by 3 1/2-points. Creighton was ranked No. 11 in the AP's preseason poll (the highest in school history) and after a 3-0 start is up to No. 8 as the Bluejays visit No. 7 Kansas, which is 4-1. To say the least, this visit to Allen Fieldhouse will be a competitive upgrade for the Bluejays after being favored by between 21 and 32 1/2-points over North Dakota State, Omaha and Kennesaw State. In contrast, Kansas had played No. 1 Gonzaga and beaten then-No. 20 Kentucky. Kansas is favored by 4  1/2-points. In another ACC/Big Ten Challenge game, No. 5 Illinois will play at Cameron Indoor Stadium against No. 10 Duke. Both schools lost last week, as the Fighting Illinois fell 82-69 to No. 2 Baylor in Indianapolis, while Duke lost at home 75-69 to now-No. 4 Michigan State. Duke has been the dominant school in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge, going 19-2. The Blue Devils have won EIGHT straight games as part of the series, while going 9-0 at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Duke is favored by 3 1/2-points.With Richmond's win but non-cover, ranked teams are 62-8 (.886) SU and 38-30-2 (55.9%) ATS when facing an unranked opponent.  There are FOUR games between ranked teams and unranked opponents on Tuesday. No. 12 Tennessee (-5.5) hosts Colorado, No. 15 Va Tech (-5) is home vs Penn St, No. 21 Rutgers (-4) is home vs Syracuse and No. 22 Ohio St (-5) is at Notre Dame. Tennessee deserves a quick mention as the Vols opened No.12 in the AP's preseason poll and have remained at No. 12 through the first two polls of the regular season despite having yet to play a game. Colorado is the fourth team to be slated as the opener for the Volunteers, who have had five overall games canceled or postponed due to COVID-19 issues with them or their opponents. The Buffaloes have been dealing with the same issues since opening 2-0. Colorado had to postpone its Pac-12 opener against Arizona State, then resumed and was scheduled to host Washington State on Saturday. Coronavirus issues with the Cougars forced a postponement Friday night. As for Tennessee, it canceled its game against No. 1 Gonzaga in the Jimmy V Classic on Wednesday and Friday's game against Notre Dame. The Volunteers and the Buffaloes quickly adjusted and added this game. "Fingers crossed." Wednesday Notes will feature poll updates in CFB (AP and CFP), an NFL Week 13 recap, plus my daily look at college hoops.Good luck...Larry

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NFL Tuesday Night Football: Ravens/Cowboys Preview

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Dec 08, 2020

Originally scheduled for Thursday to begin Week 13 of the NFL season, Dallas and Baltimore play on Tuesday after the Ravens and Steelers moved to play their Week 12 game last Wednesday. Both of these teams are desperate for a victory to stay alive in the playoff race.Baltimore has lost three straight games as well as four of their last five games after they losing to Pittsburgh last week by a 19-14 score. That loss eliminated the Ravens from winning the AFC North. They bring a 6-5 record into this game needing a victory to stay one game behind Indianapolis and Miami with their 8-4 records holding down the final two AFC wildcard spots. Lamar Jackson got activated from the COVID list on Monday, which puts him in a position to be back under center for this game. Robert Griffin III and Trace McSorley combined to complete only 9 of 18 passes for 110 yards in his absence against the Steelers last week. Jackson is completing 63.4% of his passes for 1948 yards with a 7.1 yards-per-attempt average this season with 15 touchdown passes and six interceptions. He has added another 575 yards on the ground with a 5.6 yards-per-carry average with three touchdowns. Dallas has lost five of their last six games since quarterback Dak Prescott suffered his season-ending injury in Week 4. The Cowboys return to action after losing at home to Washington on Thanksgiving by a 41-26 score as a 2.5-point favorite. Andy Dalton completed 25 of 35 passes for 215 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the losing effort. He is completing 65.1% of his passes for 870 yards but with just a 5.7 yards-per-attempt average. Dalton has five touchdown passes along with five interceptions. Despite their 3-8 record, the Cowboys can still pull within one game of first place in the NFC East with a victory behind the New York Giants and the Washington Football Team, who won this week to raise their records to 5-7 marks. Dallas will be without offensive linemen Zach Martin and Cam Erving, who are out with injuries after playing against Washington. The Cowboys were already without tackles Tyron Smith and La’el Collins, who suffered season-ending injuries. Defensive end Aldon Smith is questionable with an illness, but he did take part in the team’s last full practice. Dallas may be thin at safety, with Donovan Wilson and Steven Parker questionable with injuries. Baltimore activated running back J.K. Dobbins and defensive end Calais Campbell from the COVID list, but Campbell remains questionable with the calf injury that had kept him on the sidelines. He took part in limited practice on Saturday. The Ravens have nine players questionable on their final injury list. Right guard D.J. Fluker did participate in full practice on Saturday. Defensive tackle Brandon Williams was a limited participant in that practice. Safety Chuck Clark and linebacker Jaylon Ferguson did not practice on Saturday. Left tackle Ronnie Stanley is out the year with an ankle injury. Baltimore still has six players on their COVID inactive list, including tight end Mark Andrews, linebacker Matthew Judon, and wide receiver Willie Snead. BookMaker lists the Ravens as a 7-point favorite with the total set at 45.5. Fox and the NFL Network will broadcast the game with the kickoff at 8:05 PM ET.

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