by Hollywood Sports
Sunday, Jun 29, 2025When the Indiana Pacers took a 2-1 lead in the NBA Finals with the fourth game on their home court, it looked like the Oklahoma City Thunder were in trouble to get upset in the NBA Finals. However, I found Game Four to be a great opportunity to back the Thunder as a smaller favorite on the road.
Oklahoma City let up on the defensive end of the court in Game Three by allowing the Pacers to shoot 51.8% from the field. Not only was that their worst defensive effort in their last five contests, it was the second-worst defensive performance in their last 23 contests. The Thunder were still holding their opponents in the postseason to 43.5% shooting which has resulted in 107.2 Points-Per-Game. They led all playoff teams with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 105.7 adjusted points allowed per 100 possessions this postseason. Oklahoma City had been the best team in the NBA in forcing turnovers — but they only forced 13 turnovers in Game Three which was -4.0 below the 17 forced turnovers they have averaged in the playoffs.
I figured the Thunder should bounce back in Game Four to even this series since they had covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 opportunities to avenge a loss. They had also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road including six of those nine games that that played on the road. They had covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss on the road.
I was wary that Oklahoma City has failed to cover the point spread in all eight of their playoff games on the road. But they did have victories on the road in each of the first three rounds of the playoffs — I suspected the point spread cover issues related to their historic regular season numbers producing unrealistic point spreads under the pressure of the postseason. The Thunder had covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games against teams from the Eastern Conference including 11 of those 17 games played on the road. They had also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games when trailing in the series.
Indiana enjoyed their best shooting effort in this series and tied for their second-best shooting performance in their last 10 games by making 51.8% of their shots. They got an outstanding game from Benjamin Mathurin who scored 27 points off the bench while nailing 9 of his 12 shots including two of his three from behind the arc. Mathurin has a 46.7% field goal percentage and a 33.7% mark from 3-point range so expecting a similar effort in Game Four was probably overly ambitious. The Pacers had failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 35 games after a straight-up win at home — and they had failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games after an upset victory in their last contest.
I had Game Four circled to fade Indiana earlier in the series — and the mentioned circumstances above supported that notion. But on a broader level, even after the Pacers' 116-107 upset loss as a 5.5-point road favorite in Game Three, home underdogs in the NBA Finals had failed to cover the point spread in 7 of those last 10 circumstances. Indiana was originally the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference bracket — and four seeds or worse in the NBA Finals coming off a straight-up in this series had failed to cover the point spread in 5 of those last 7 circumstances (and lost six of those seven games straight-up). Additionally, the home team in Game Four of the NBA Finals had failed to cover the point spread in 8 of the last 11 seasons (and those home teams had lost eight of those 11 NBA Finals Game Fours) — and if those home teams came off a win in Game Three of the NBA Finals, they had failed to cover the point spread in 4 of those last 5 games with three of the four straight-up loss being by double-digits.
Those are the primary reasons why I made Game Four of the NBA Finals my 25* National Basketball Association Game of the Year with Oklahoma City minus the points. Things looked tenuous when the Thunder began the fourth quarter trailing by an 87-80 margin. But the reasons why I liked Oklahoma City in that game remained — and they stepped up the final 12 minutes by outscoring the Pacers by a 31-17 margin (with some inevitable late-moment shenanigans that are endemic to the NBA) and they covered the point spread with a 111-104 victory — and gave us our 25* NBA Game of the Year!
Never apologize after a win (but count your blessings).
Best of luck — Frank.
Oklahoma City let up on the defensive end of the court in Game Three by allowing the Pacers to shoot 51.8% from the field. Not only was that their worst defensive effort in their last five contests, it was the second-worst defensive performance in their last 23 contests. The Thunder were still holding their opponents in the postseason to 43.5% shooting which has resulted in 107.2 Points-Per-Game. They led all playoff teams with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 105.7 adjusted points allowed per 100 possessions this postseason. Oklahoma City had been the best team in the NBA in forcing turnovers — but they only forced 13 turnovers in Game Three which was -4.0 below the 17 forced turnovers they have averaged in the playoffs.
I figured the Thunder should bounce back in Game Four to even this series since they had covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 opportunities to avenge a loss. They had also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road including six of those nine games that that played on the road. They had covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss on the road.
I was wary that Oklahoma City has failed to cover the point spread in all eight of their playoff games on the road. But they did have victories on the road in each of the first three rounds of the playoffs — I suspected the point spread cover issues related to their historic regular season numbers producing unrealistic point spreads under the pressure of the postseason. The Thunder had covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games against teams from the Eastern Conference including 11 of those 17 games played on the road. They had also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games when trailing in the series.
Indiana enjoyed their best shooting effort in this series and tied for their second-best shooting performance in their last 10 games by making 51.8% of their shots. They got an outstanding game from Benjamin Mathurin who scored 27 points off the bench while nailing 9 of his 12 shots including two of his three from behind the arc. Mathurin has a 46.7% field goal percentage and a 33.7% mark from 3-point range so expecting a similar effort in Game Four was probably overly ambitious. The Pacers had failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 35 games after a straight-up win at home — and they had failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games after an upset victory in their last contest.
I had Game Four circled to fade Indiana earlier in the series — and the mentioned circumstances above supported that notion. But on a broader level, even after the Pacers' 116-107 upset loss as a 5.5-point road favorite in Game Three, home underdogs in the NBA Finals had failed to cover the point spread in 7 of those last 10 circumstances. Indiana was originally the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference bracket — and four seeds or worse in the NBA Finals coming off a straight-up in this series had failed to cover the point spread in 5 of those last 7 circumstances (and lost six of those seven games straight-up). Additionally, the home team in Game Four of the NBA Finals had failed to cover the point spread in 8 of the last 11 seasons (and those home teams had lost eight of those 11 NBA Finals Game Fours) — and if those home teams came off a win in Game Three of the NBA Finals, they had failed to cover the point spread in 4 of those last 5 games with three of the four straight-up loss being by double-digits.
Those are the primary reasons why I made Game Four of the NBA Finals my 25* National Basketball Association Game of the Year with Oklahoma City minus the points. Things looked tenuous when the Thunder began the fourth quarter trailing by an 87-80 margin. But the reasons why I liked Oklahoma City in that game remained — and they stepped up the final 12 minutes by outscoring the Pacers by a 31-17 margin (with some inevitable late-moment shenanigans that are endemic to the NBA) and they covered the point spread with a 111-104 victory — and gave us our 25* NBA Game of the Year!
Never apologize after a win (but count your blessings).
Best of luck — Frank.
