by Rod Pearson
Wednesday, Jun 11, 2025
Game Time: 1:10 pm ET, Thursday, June 12, 2025
Venue: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
Where to Watch: SNY
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Nationals +198, Mets -247; Over/Under: 8 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Nationals +195, Mets -250; Over/Under: 8 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Nationals +195, Mets -250; Over/Under: 8 runs
Season Record
Washington Nationals: 30-36 (3rd place, NL East)
New York Mets: 43-24 (1st place, NL East)
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Recent Form
Washington Nationals: 4-6 last 10
New York Mets: 8-2 last 10
Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Preview and Analysis
The Nationals are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Texas Rangers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 30-36 record overall and have a road record of 15-18. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Mets on Thursday with the 2nd game still to be played on Wednesday. The Nationals lost the series opener on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 18th in the MLB with a .694 OPS. Jake Irvin is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Michael Soroka is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 3-3 with a 4.86 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 1 BB with 7 Ks on 2 hits through 6 IP against the Texas Rangers.
The Mets are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the Colorado Rockies 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 43-24 record overall and have a home record of 25-7. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Nationals on Thursday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. The Mets won the 1st game of this series on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 5th in the MLB with a .754 OPS. David Peterson is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Kodai Senga is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 6-3 with a 1.59 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 1 homer, and 2 BB with 6 strikeouts on 5 hits through 6 innings played against the Colorado Rockies.
Nationals vs Mets Prediction
The current betting odds have the Mets listed as a big favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Mets have looked great in their games this season with their 43-24 record overall which has them right at the top of the NL East with one of the best records in the entire MLB. They have also looked great in their own ballpark this year with their 25-7 home record. Meanwhile, the Nationals haven't looked great in their games this season with their 30-36 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL East. They haven't been a great road team though with their 15-18 road record this season. They haven't looked great lately either as they are 4-6 in their last 10 games while the Mets have been red hot lately, going 8-2 in their last 10 games. The Mets also have the much better pitching matchup here and can take advantage of that since they do have one of the best offenses in the MLB. Senga is on the mound for the Mets in this one and he has been lights out for most of the season. He is 6-3 with a 1.59 ERA and he hasn't been giving up many runs in his starts all year. He only gave up 1 earned run in his last start which has been a common theme for him and the team has had a ton of success too, winning 3 games in a row now with him starting. Soroka is on the mound for the Nationals in this one and he hasn't looked great this year. He is coming off a great start in which he gave up no runs, but he is 3-3 with a 4.86 ERA this season and has given up quite a few runs in his starts. He is coming off a great start against the Rangers too and the Rangers don't have a great offense, but the Mets have one of the best offenses in the MLB and they have been taking advantage of these games against teams they should beat up. The best way to place a bet here is on the Mets to win this game and on the runline.
Nationals Mets Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Thursday, June 12, 2025 (1:10 pm ET start time) is Mets 7 Nationals 1.
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MLB Betting Trends
Washington Nationals: 171-218 (+27.7 units) on the moneyline in all games. 84-110 (+23.1 units) on the moneyline in road games. 141-191 (+30.9 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 50-29 UNDER as a road underdog of +175 to +250.
New York Mets: 50-35 (-11.8 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -150 or more. 98-75 (-5 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a losing record. 68-51 (-8.1 units) on the moneyline vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season. 20-10 UNDER as a home favorite of -175 to -250.
Key Injuries
Washington Nationals: D. Crews (RF) Ten Day IL - Back. P. DeJong (3B) Ten Day IL - Face. O. Ribalta (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Bicep. D. Law (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. D. Herz (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. M. Thompson (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Gray (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.
New York Mets: M. Vientos (3B) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. J. Winker (LF) Ten Day IL - Side. D. Young (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Minter (RP) Sixty Day IL - Lat. F. Montas Jr. (SP) Sixty Day IL - Lat. B. Raley (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. S. Manaea (SP) Sixty Day IL - Oblique. J. Siri (CF) Ten Day IL - Shin. C. Scott (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. N. Madrigal (3B) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. D. Smith (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.
Notable Quotes
“We’re getting balls to hit, [but] we’re just missing them. So we’ve got to get back to just squaring the balls up and stay in the middle of the field. We’re really good when we hit the ball in the middle of the field and take our walks.” - Dave Martinez after his team’s loss against the Mets in their game on Tuesday.
“A really good player and a good hitter. When he’s going that way, it’s a really good hitter.” - Carlos Mendoza on Jeff McNeil after his team’s win against the Nationals in their game on Tuesday.
Starting Lineups
Washington Nationals
CJ Abrams (L) SS
James Wood (L) LF
Nathaniel Lowe (L) 1B
Josh Bell (S) DH
Luis García Jr. (L) 2B
Alex Call (R) RF
Robert Hassell III (L) CF
Keibert Ruiz (S) C
José Tena (L) 3B
New York Mets
Francisco Lindor (S) SS
Starling Marte (R) DH
Juan Soto (L) RF
Pete Alonso (R) 1B
Brandon Nimmo (L) LF
Luis Torrens (R) C
Tyrone Taylor (R) CF
Jeff McNeil (L) 2B
Ronny Mauricio (S) 3B
Statistical Leaders
Washington Nationals
Batting Average: Trey Lipscomb (.500)
Hits: James Wood (67)
Home Runs: James Wood (16)
RBI: James Wood (45)
Stolen Bases: Dylan Crews (11)
Wins: Jorge López (6)
Saves: Kyle Finnegan (18)
ERA: Kyle Finnegan (2.25)
New York Mets
Batting Average: Pete Alonso (.300)
Hits: Pete Alonso (76)
Home Runs: Pete Alonso (17)
RBI: Pete Alonso (62)
Stolen Bases: Francisco Lindor (13)
Wins: Clay Holmes (7)
Saves: Edwin Díaz (14)
ERA: José Castillo (0.00)
Managers:
Washington Nationals: Dave Martinez (8th season)
New York Mets: Carlos Mendoza (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
