by Team Del Genio
Monday, Jun 30, 2025The Minnesota Twins looked destined for lots of trouble in their Sunday Night Baseball game on ESPN in Detroit Tigers. They had to face the Tigers’ Tarik Skubal.
The reigning American League Cy Young award winner had a 9-2 record with a 2.29 era and a 0.87 whip. It is easy to laud the southpaw. He was striking out 32.1% of opposing hitters, ranking in the 93rd percentile. He was only walking 3.3% of opposing hitters, ranking in the 98th percentile. When hitters do get contact on the baseball, the average exit velocity was just 85.7%, ranking in the 96th percentile. These hitters were only getting a hard-hit rate of 95 or higher miles per hour in just 32.1% of those batted balls, ranking in the 95th percentile.
The Twins struggle against left-handed pitching against which they were averaging 3.1 runs per game with a .220 batting average, a .285 on-base percentage, and a .349 slugging percentage. In their six games in the last week, they were only hitting .223 with a .297 on-base percentage. On the road, they have a .236 batting average and a .324 on-base percentage.
With the Tigers installed as an expensive -305 money line favorite by the oddsmakers, using this information to back Detroit on a side play did not seem prudent. Instead, confident that Minnesota would not score many runs in the game, we concluded to play the under.
Minnesota went into the game with a .399 slugging percentage this season, and Detroit had played eleven of their last seventeen games under the total at home against American League teams who have a slugging percentage of .410 or lower. The Tigers had played nine of their last thirteen games under the number at home against losing teams in the second half of the season. They had played twenty-three of their last forty games at home against opponents when the oddsmakers installed them as a money line favorite at -150 or higher.
The Minnesota Twins had only allowed two combined runs in their three previous games before losing in Detroit yesterday, 10-5. The Twins had played six of their last eight games under the number after playing a game where they allowed ten or more runs. They had played fifteen of their last twenty-three games under the total against division opponents, and they had played eight of their last twelve games on the road under the number against division opponents. They had played sixteen of their last twenty-five games under the total when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog.
Detroit had a tougher test against Minnesota’s Chris Paddack than it may seem at first glance. The right-hander had a 3-6 record with a 4.64 era and a 1.23 whip in sixteen starts. He had struggled with his extension and velocity in a couple of starts earlier this month, yet he was better in that area in his last start (despite his splitter not missing bats). He ranked in the 92nd top percentile in extension, so that should not be a long-term problem. He had not had much luck when opposing hitters got on base against him. His strand rate this year is 64.4% despite his leaving 70.9% of runners on base last and 71.4% in 2023. The MLB left-on-base average this year is 72.6%. On the plus side, the right-hander was only walking 6.7% of opposing hitters, ranking in the top 74th percentile. He was getting a chase rate of 32.0%, ranking in the top 80th percentile. He had pitched well against Detroit in his two career starts with a 1.69 era and a 0.94 whip. In his previous start against the Tigers this year, he gave up only one earned run in five innings. Detroit is hitting only .243 with a .320 on-base percentage against division opponents.
Paddack was just ok by giving only three runs yet falling one out short of pitching five full innings. But Skubal was terrific, and he may have pitched his best game of the year. In seven innings, he gave up only one base hit and walked just one batter. He struck out 13 batters. The Tigers won the game, 3-0, in a final score that cruised below the 7.5 number installed by the oddsmakers. We win our MLB AL Central Total of the Month along the way!
A Hall of Fame starting pitcher already has the “terrific” moniker associated with his name, so “Tarif Terrific” is not a nickname that is going to take off, given the love and respect baseball fans have for Tom Seaver. Yet that will not stop Skubal from continuing to string start after start, which deserves the terrific description. He is in a zone right now that few starting pitchers ever experience.
Good luck - TDG.
The reigning American League Cy Young award winner had a 9-2 record with a 2.29 era and a 0.87 whip. It is easy to laud the southpaw. He was striking out 32.1% of opposing hitters, ranking in the 93rd percentile. He was only walking 3.3% of opposing hitters, ranking in the 98th percentile. When hitters do get contact on the baseball, the average exit velocity was just 85.7%, ranking in the 96th percentile. These hitters were only getting a hard-hit rate of 95 or higher miles per hour in just 32.1% of those batted balls, ranking in the 95th percentile.
The Twins struggle against left-handed pitching against which they were averaging 3.1 runs per game with a .220 batting average, a .285 on-base percentage, and a .349 slugging percentage. In their six games in the last week, they were only hitting .223 with a .297 on-base percentage. On the road, they have a .236 batting average and a .324 on-base percentage.
With the Tigers installed as an expensive -305 money line favorite by the oddsmakers, using this information to back Detroit on a side play did not seem prudent. Instead, confident that Minnesota would not score many runs in the game, we concluded to play the under.
Minnesota went into the game with a .399 slugging percentage this season, and Detroit had played eleven of their last seventeen games under the total at home against American League teams who have a slugging percentage of .410 or lower. The Tigers had played nine of their last thirteen games under the number at home against losing teams in the second half of the season. They had played twenty-three of their last forty games at home against opponents when the oddsmakers installed them as a money line favorite at -150 or higher.
The Minnesota Twins had only allowed two combined runs in their three previous games before losing in Detroit yesterday, 10-5. The Twins had played six of their last eight games under the number after playing a game where they allowed ten or more runs. They had played fifteen of their last twenty-three games under the total against division opponents, and they had played eight of their last twelve games on the road under the number against division opponents. They had played sixteen of their last twenty-five games under the total when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog.
Detroit had a tougher test against Minnesota’s Chris Paddack than it may seem at first glance. The right-hander had a 3-6 record with a 4.64 era and a 1.23 whip in sixteen starts. He had struggled with his extension and velocity in a couple of starts earlier this month, yet he was better in that area in his last start (despite his splitter not missing bats). He ranked in the 92nd top percentile in extension, so that should not be a long-term problem. He had not had much luck when opposing hitters got on base against him. His strand rate this year is 64.4% despite his leaving 70.9% of runners on base last and 71.4% in 2023. The MLB left-on-base average this year is 72.6%. On the plus side, the right-hander was only walking 6.7% of opposing hitters, ranking in the top 74th percentile. He was getting a chase rate of 32.0%, ranking in the top 80th percentile. He had pitched well against Detroit in his two career starts with a 1.69 era and a 0.94 whip. In his previous start against the Tigers this year, he gave up only one earned run in five innings. Detroit is hitting only .243 with a .320 on-base percentage against division opponents.
Paddack was just ok by giving only three runs yet falling one out short of pitching five full innings. But Skubal was terrific, and he may have pitched his best game of the year. In seven innings, he gave up only one base hit and walked just one batter. He struck out 13 batters. The Tigers won the game, 3-0, in a final score that cruised below the 7.5 number installed by the oddsmakers. We win our MLB AL Central Total of the Month along the way!
A Hall of Fame starting pitcher already has the “terrific” moniker associated with his name, so “Tarif Terrific” is not a nickname that is going to take off, given the love and respect baseball fans have for Tom Seaver. Yet that will not stop Skubal from continuing to string start after start, which deserves the terrific description. He is in a zone right now that few starting pitchers ever experience.
Good luck - TDG.
