Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/29/2025

Game Time: 8:10 pm ET, Thursday, May 29, 2025

Venue:  Daikin Park, Houston, TX

Where to Watch:  SCHN

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Rays +100, Astros -120; Over/Under:  8 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Rays +100, Astros -120; Over/Under:  8 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Rays +100, Astros -120; Over/Under:  8 runs

Tampa Bay Rays:  28-27 (2nd place, AL East)

Houston Astros:  30-25 (2nd place, AL West)

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Tampa Bay Rays:  7-3 last 10

Houston Astros:  7-3 last 10

The Rays are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Minnesota Twins 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 28-27 record overall and have a road record of 10-8. This is the series opener of a 4-game series with the Astros on Thursday. Their offense ranks 21st in the MLB with a .685 OPS. Drew Rasmussen was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Shane Baz is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 4-3 with a 4.94 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 ER, 1 HR, and 3 BB with 4 Ks on 4 hits through 5.2 IP against the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Astros are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 2-game series against the Athletics 2-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 30-25 record overall and have a home record of 20-10. This is the 1st game of a 4-game series with the Rays on Thursday. Their offense ranks 13th in the MLB with a .718 OPS. Lance McCullers Jr. was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while rookie pitcher Ryan Gusto is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 3-2 with a 4.58 ERA this season. His team lost their last 4 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 2 homers, and 3 BB with 6 strikeouts on 4 hits through 4.1 innings played against the Seattle Mariners.

The current betting odds have the Rays listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Rays haven't looked great in their games this season with their 27-27 record overall, but that record has them right near the top of their division in a really weak AL East. They have also been a slightly better road team this season with their 10-8 road record. Meanwhile, the Astros have looked good in their games this season with their 29-25 record overall which has them right near the top of their division. They have also looked good in their own ballpark with their 19-10 home record this year. The Astros usually have a slower start to the season before really starting to get hot in the summer, and the Rays can take advantage of that here since they have been the hotter team lately. The Rays have been rolling with their 7-3 record in their last 10 games and they have been putting up a lot of runs in these games too. They also have an advantage on the mound with Baz starting since he is the more reliable starter. Baz is 4-3 with a 4.94 ERA this season and hasn't been lights out, but he only gave up 1 earned run in his last start and has looked a lot better lately. He is a much better option than Gusto who is starting for the Astros since Gusto is still in his rookie season and doesn't have a ton of experience pitching in the MLB. Gusto is 3-2 with a 4.58 ERA this year and the team hasn't had a ton of success with him starting as they have lost 4 games in a row with him on the mound. The Rays are in a better position to win this game on the road. The best way to place a bet here is on the Rays to win this game. 

Rays Astros Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Thursday, May 29, 2025 (8:10 pm ET start time) is Rays 3 Astros 2.

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Tampa Bay Rays: 93-86 (+6.6 units) on the moneyline in road games. 35-37 (+5.2 units) on the moneyline as a road underdog of +100 to +150. 52-42 (+8.3 units) on the moneyline vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better. 31-23 UNDER vs. a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start.

Houston Astros: 213-175 (-14.7 units) on the moneyline in all games. 105-93 (-33.3 units) on the moneyline in home games. 144-120 (-38.1 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 29-20 UNDER vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 1 or more HR's/start. 

Tampa Bay Rays:  J. DeLuca (CF) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. T. Jankowski (RF) Ten Day IL - Groin. H. Kim (SS) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. H. Bigge (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Lat. S. McClanahan (SP) Sixty Day IL - Triceps. J. Mangum (RF) Ten Day IL - Groin. R. Palacios (LF) Ten Day IL - Knee. A. Faedo (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. K. Kelly (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Glute. N. Lavender (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Houston Astros:  R. Blanco (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. H. Wesneski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. Y. Alvarez (LF) Ten Day IL - Hand. S. Arrighetti (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Thumb. L. Garcia (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Javier (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Trammell (LF) Ten Day IL - Calf. P. Leon (RF) Ten Day IL - Knee. J. France (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder.

“From what we've heard, he's a guy that gives you a really good at-bat. Think that he can help us by adding some good defense and just his approach at the plate. He's kind of been up and down, [with] different clubs, but I just heard from one of his former managers that raved about the teammate [he is] and the way that he works with pitchers. So, excited for that.” - Kevin Cash on his team acquiring Matt Thaiss in a trade with the Chicago White Sox.

“We’re swinging the bats well, hitting homers, really driving the ball. We had good at-bats throughout and everyone was contributing. The guy on the mound for us was also really, really good. Hunter Brown -- six innings, punched out eight. I thought his stuff was really good.” - Joe Espada after his team’s win against the Athletics in their game on Tuesday.

Josh Lowe (L) RF

Brandon Lowe (L) 2B

Yandy Díaz (R) DH

Jonathan Aranda (L) 1B

Junior Caminero (R) 3B

Chandler Simpson (L) LF

Taylor Walls (S) SS

Kameron Misner (L) CF

Danny Jansen (R) C

Jeremy Peña (R) SS

Isaac Paredes (R) 3B

Jose Altuve (R) LF

Christian Walker (R) 1B

Victor Caratini (S) C

Jake Meyers (R) CF

Cam Smith (R) RF

Zach Dezenzo (R) DH

Brendan Rodgers (R) 2B

Batting Average:  Richie Palacios (.750)

Hits:  Jonathan Aranda (50)

Home Runs:  Brandon Lowe (10)

RBI:  Jonathan Aranda (29)

Stolen Bases:  José Caballero (17)

Wins:  Shane Baz (4)

Saves:  Pete Fairbanks (10)

ERA:  Joe Boyle (0.00)

Batting Average:  Jake Meyers (.299)

Hits:  Jeremy Peña (61)

Home Runs:  Isaac Paredes (11)

RBI:  Isaac Paredes (31)

Stolen Bases:  Jake Meyers (8)

Wins:  Hunter Brown (7)

Saves:  Josh Hader (13)

ERA:  Shawn Dubin (0.00)

Managers:

Tampa Bay Rays: Kevin Cash (11th season)

Houston Astros: Joe Espada (2nd season)