by Rod Pearson
Thursday, Sep 26, 2024
Game Time: 7:45 pm ET, Saturday, September 28, 2024
Venue: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
Where to Watch: SEC Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: USA +21.5, LSU -21.5; Over/Under: 65.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: USA +21.5, LSU -21.5; Over/Under: 65.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: USA +21.5, LSU -21.5; Over/Under: 65.5 points
Season Record
South Alabama Jaguars: 2-2 (1-0) (1st place, Sun Belt West)
LSU Tigers: 3-1 (1-0) (5th place, SEC)
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South Alabama Jaguars: won their last game on the road against the Appalachian State Mountaineers 48-14.
LSU Tigers: won their last game at home against the UCLA Bruins 34-17.
South Alabama Jaguars vs LSU Tigers Preview and Analysis
South Alabama is entering this game with a 2-2 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 1-1 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against App State 48-14. Gio Lopez was the starting QB and he completed 16/24 passes for 154 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Fluff Bothwell led the team in rushing yards with 116 and 2 TDs. Jamaal Pritchett led the receivers with 68 receiving yards on 6 receptions and 1 TD. Jaden Voisin led the defense in that game with 3 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Courtney McBride Jr. led the defense in sacks with 1. Jordan Scruggs came away with the only interception for them in that one.
LSU is entering this game with a 3-1 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against UCLA 34-17. Garrett Nussmeier was the starting QB and he completed 32/44 passes for 352 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Josh Williams led the team in rushing yards with 62 and 1 TD. Mason Taylor led the receivers with 77 receiving yards on 8 receptions. Major Burns led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while Bradyn Swinson led the defense in sacks with 2. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
South Alabama vs LSU Prediction
The current betting odds have South Alabama listed as a 21.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. South Alabama hasn't looked great in their games this season with their 2-2 record overall, but they have looked a lot better in their last 2 games. They started the season 0-2, but they have quickly turned things around with 2 wins in a row now, putting up 135 points in those 2 games. They have shown that they have a really good offense that can put up a ton of points and they are going to have momentum from their 48-14 conference win on the road against App State last week. Meanwhile, LSU has looked good in their games this season with their 3-1 record overall, but they haven't really been blowing teams out in their wins. They are 1-0 in the SEC this season but really struggled to win that game against South Carolina, trailing for a lot of it too. They have already lost a game against USC in their season opener and now they are coming off a home win against a really bad UCLA team, not even winning that game by 20 points. LSU has a really good offense that will put up points here, but they still have the same problems on defense as previous years and South Alabama has an offense that can put up points which will keep this game closer. The best way to place a bet here is on South Alabama to cover the spread in this game.
South Alabama LSU Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 28, 2024 (7:45 pm ET start time) is LSU 42 South Alabama 27.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
South Alabama Jaguars: 4-7 ATS off a win against a conference rival. 2-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. 3-6 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 yards/play or more. 9-4 OVER in non-conference games. 6-0 OVER off a road win. 8-3 OVER after playing their last game on the road.
LSU Tigers: 11-4 ATS in home lined games. 8-3 ATS as a home favorite. 5-2 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 200 rushing yards/game or more. 22-9 OVER in all lined games. 9-3 OVER as a home favorite. 11-2 OVER vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att.
Key Injuries
South Alabama Jaguars: G. Lopez (QB) Probable - Toe.
LSU Tigers: D. Womack (DE) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Roberts (OL) Questionable - Undisclosed. P. Malbrue (DE) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Jackson (DE) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Ibieta (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Hilton (WR) Questionable - Ankle. J. Allen (SAF) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Guillory (DT) Out - Achilles. J. Emery (RB) Out - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“I love Tiger Stadium. All my friends were LSU fans. Loved growing up there. It was just a great experience.” - Major Applewhite on his team’s upcoming game against LSU this week.
“Wish we were cleaner in the first half. The mistakes are maddening. Those are the guys we got. There's nobody getting traded. ... We're going to keep working with them and they're going to turn the corner.” - Brian Kelly after his team’s win against UCLA in their last game.
Starting Lineups
South Alabama Jaguars
WR Ivory, Javon
WR Voisin, Devin
WR Pritchett, Jamaal
TE Thomas-Jones, DJ
QB Lopez, Gio
RB McReynolds, Braylon
LSU Tigers
WR Hilton Jr., Chris
WR Daniels, CJ
WR Lacy, Kyren
TE Taylor, Mason
QB Nussmeier, Garrett
RB Williams, Josh
Statistical Leaders
South Alabama Jaguars
Passing: G. Lopez (843)
Rushing: D. Bothwell (359)
Receiving: J. Pritchett (354)
Touchdowns: D. Bothwell (6)
LSU Tigers
Passing: G. Nussmeier (1247)
Rushing: J. Williams (134)
Receiving: A. Anderson (298)
Touchdowns: K. Lacy (5)
Coaches:
South Alabama Jaguars: Major Applewhite (1st season)
LSU Tigers: Brian Kelly (3rd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
