SMU Mustangs vs Louisville Cardinals Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 10/05/2024

Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, October 5, 2024

Venue:  L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, KY

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  SMU +7, Louisville -7; Over/Under:  57 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  SMU +7, Louisville -7; Over/Under:  57 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  SMU +7, Louisville -7; Over/Under:  57 points

SMU Mustangs:  4-1 (1-0) (3rd place, ACC)

Louisville Cardinals:  3-1 (1-0) (6th place, ACC)

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SMU Mustangs:  won their last game at home against the Florida State Seminoles 42-16.

Louisville Cardinals:  lost their last game on the road against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish 31-24.

SMU is entering this game with a 4-1 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-1 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Florida State 42-16. Kevin Jennings was the starting QB and he completed 16/23 passes for 254 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Brashard Smith led the team in rushing yards with 129 and 1 TD. Jake Bailey led the receivers with 65 receiving yards on 2 receptions. Isaiah Nwokobia led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Isaiah Nwokobia and Isaiah Smith each led the defense in sacks with 0.5. Jonathan McGill, Kobe Wilson, and Ahmad Walker each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Louisville is entering this game with a 3-1 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Notre Dame 31-24. Tyler Shough was the starting QB and he completed 24/41 passes for 264 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Isaac Brown led the team in rushing yards with 72. Ja'Corey Brooks led the receivers with 71 receiving yards on 5 receptions and 2 TDs. Stanquan Clark led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while TJ Quinn led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have SMU listed as a 7 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. SMU has looked really good in their games this season with their 4-1 record overall and their 1-0 conference record. They are coming off their 1st conference win as a team in the ACC and they blew out their opponent, beating Florida State 42-16. They will be looking to carry that momentum into this 2nd conference game and even their 1 loss this season was a really tight 3 point loss to BYU. Meanwhile, Louisville has looked really good in their games this season with their 3-1 record overall and their 1-0 conference record, but they have lost some of the wind in their sails with a loss last week. That was their 1st loss of the season and it came on the road against Notre Dame, losing 31-24 in a game that they were trailing for most of the time. Their defense got exposed in that game as they gave up 30+ points to a Notre Dame offense that has been really up and down this season. Louisville will be looking to bounce back at home now, but SMU has been putting up a ton of points on offense in their last 2 games and that will keep them in this game with a chance to win it. The best way to place a bet here is on SMU to cover the spread in this game. 

SMU Louisville Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 5, 2024 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Louisville 34 SMU 31.

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SMU Mustangs: 3-6 ATS as an underdog. 1-5 ATS as a road underdog. 3-7 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. 5-1 UNDER as a road underdog. 8-3 UNDER off a home win. 6-0 UNDER versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 rushing yards/carry or more.

Louisville Cardinals: 13-3 ATS in home lined games. 11-2 ATS as a home favorite. 5-0 ATS off a road loss. 9-3 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 yards/play or more. 8-4 UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. 6-2 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses. 10-5 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record.

SMU Mustangs:  Z. Minors (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Wheaton (RB) Out - Knee. B. Flowers (DE) Questionable - Knee. M. Lockhart (DT) Questionable - Undisclosed.

Louisville Cardinals:  D. Chaney (RB) Questionable - Ankle. A. Williams (DB) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Guerad (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Calloway (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Lacy (WR) Out - Collarbone.

“I just saw green grass and then I saw a couple people coming at me, so I got scared. I thought I was going to go down, but I ended up in the end zone. It was like the blink of an eye.” - Kobe Wilson after their win against FSU in their last game. 

"I give the crowd the credit. It got loud. They couldn’t hear the call from me. That can’t happen. We have to have a better way in a situation with no timeouts and we have to get a first down. That’s on me.” - Jeff Brohm after his team’s loss against Notre Dame in their last game. 

WR Brinson, Romello

WR Smith, Key'Shawn

WR Bailey, Jake

TE Maryland, RJ

QB Stone, Preston

RB Smith, Brashard

WR Brooks, Ja'Corey 

WR Bell, Chris 

WR Thompson, Jadon

TE Redman, Mark

QB Shough, Tyler

RB Turner, Maurice

Passing: K. Jennings (733)

Rushing: B. Smith (509)

Receiving: R. Maryland (221)

Touchdowns: B. Smith (8)

Passing: T. Shough (1114)

Rushing: I. Brown (245)

Receiving: J. Brooks (368)

Touchdowns: J. Brooks (4)

Coaches:

SMU Mustangs: Rhett Lashlee (3rd season)

Louisville Cardinals: Jeff Brohm (2nd season)