Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 4/11/2022

Time: 7:40 p.m. ET

Venue: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN

Where to watch: ROOTNW, Bally Sports North

DraftKings: Check back later

BetMGM: Twins -125, Mariners +105

Caesars: Twins -130, Mariners +110

Mariners: 2-1

Twins: 1-2

Byron Buxton is crushing balls and taking souls, or at least some sort of equivalent to that. Whatever the Minnesota Twins’ MVP candidate is doing, that’s what he’s done the last two games against the Seattle Mariners.

Now with the teams concluding their four-game series on Monday at Target Field, I can’t help but wonder if we’re getting played by Minnesota or this is exactly the group that we should’ve expected all along. Of course losing the first two games of the season did not help matters, but the Twins can offset everything with a win and to come away with a split in the finale.

The Twins won their first game of the season Sunday in a dominant 10-4 win over the Mariners that saw Gary Sanchez hit a grand slam to the upper deck, and Carlos Correa also connected on his first homer in a Twins uniform, also to the upper deck.

“It was a fun day at the office, to be able to get our pitches and be able to drive it,” Correa said. “That’s always a great sign. We know we’re going to hit, right? It was just a matter of time.”

The Twins are the true wild card in the American League Central right now. I think we know the Chicago White Sox are the class of the group and the Kansas City Royals might be the darkhorse, but the Twins by adding Correa and Sanchez provide some extra pop -- and maybe for Sanchez, the ability to no longer have to think about expectations in New York -- and some interesting dynamic in the middle of the lineup.

“We know we're going to hit, right? It was just a matter of time,” Correa remarked. “The first couple of days, [the Mariners'] pitchers did their jobs. Today, it was our day."

Altogether, the Twins hit six home runs capped off by Correa’s 458-foot blast that took 113.4 miles per hour to get to the third deck. 

The Mariners can’t afford to have Marco Gonzales have that bad of a start, giving up three of those homers in just two innings of work. It was certainly an offset after winning by 2-1 and 4-3 in the first two games of the series. Mitch Haniger hit his second homer in as many days, a three-run shot that trimmed the Minnesota lead to 6-4 before things went off the rails. Adam Frazier also had two hits for Seattle.

"The home run ball got us today,” manager Scott Servais said. “They're a good team. They've got a heck of a lineup and certainly got all kinds of power, and if you give them extra outs in an inning, it [hurts] us.”

Chris Flexen will get the call for the Mariners on Monday, as the 27-year-old right-hander looks to build off a tremendous 2021 after going 14-6 with a 3.61 ERA. He was the ace last season during Seattle’s tremendous run toward a playoff spot, but now with Robbie Ray in the fold, Flexen can flex on opponents from lower in the rotation. Dylan Bundy is expected to get the call for Minnesota.

I can’t wait to see this Twins club unlock its power potential if things like this keep happening. I’d wonder greatly where these balls would land if the Metrodome was still in play. I think Seattle will play well early, but this is going to come down to the bullpen. If it does, Minnesota is all in play for this one. Twins win 6-4

Mariners are 86-81 (+43.2 net games on money line) as an underdog the past three seasons.

Mariners are 75-65 (+29.5 net games on ML) the past three seasons against right-handed starters.

Mariners are 22-9 (+17.2 net games on ML) in the last three seasons when Flexen starts.

Twins are 67-67 (-31.5 net games on ML) the last three seasons as a favorite.

Mariners:
Adam Frazier (L) 2B
Ty France (R) 1B
Jesse Winker (L) LF
Mitch Haniger (R) DH
Jarred Kelenic (L) RF
Eugenio Suarez (R) 3B
Julio Rodriguez (R) CF
J.P. Crawford (L) SS
Luis Torrens (R) C

Twins:
Byron Buxton (R) CF
Carlos Correa (R) SS
Jorge Polanco (S) 2B
Gio Urshela (R) 3B
Miguel Sano (R) 1B
Alex Kirilloff (L) LF
Gary Sanchez (R) C
Ryan Jeffers (R) DH
Max Kepler (L) RF

SEA: Chris Flexen
MIN: Dylan Bundy

Batting average: J.P. Crawford -- .375

Hits: Ty France -- 4

Home runs: Mitch Haniger -- 2

RBI: Mitch Haniger -- 5

Wins: Robbie Ray -- 1

Saves: Diego Castillo -- 1

ERA: Robbie Ray -- 1.29

Batting average: Ryan Jeffers -- .333

Hits: Two tied -- 3

Home runs: Byron Buxton -- 3

RBI: Gary Sanchez -- 5

Wins: Bailey Ober -- 1

Saves: N/A

ERA: Sonny Gray -- 3.86