San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/16/2023

Game Time: 1:35 pm ET, Sunday, July 16, 2023

Venue:  Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA

Where to Watch:  MLB Network

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Padres +125, Phillies -145; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Padres +125, Phillies -145; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Padres +125, Phillies -145; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

San Diego Padres:  44-47 (4th place, NL West)

Philadelphia Phillies:  48-42 (3rd place, NL East)

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San Diego Padres:  7-3 last 10

Philadelphia Phillies:  5-5 last 10

The Padres are entering this series on a 2 game winning streak and won their 3-game series against the New York Mets 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 44-47 record overall and have a road record of 19-24. This is the series finale of a 4-game series with the Phillies on Sunday with the 2nd game and the 3rd game of this series still to be played on Saturday in a double-header. They also won the series opener of this series on Friday. Their offense ranks 13th in the MLB with a .729 OPS. Ryan Weathers is their starting pitcher on Saturday in game 2 while Seth Lugo is making his start in this game on Sunday. He is 3-4 with a 3.39 ERA this season. His team lost 5 of their last 6 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 ER, 0 HR, and 1 BB with 6 Ks on 5 hits through 6 IP against the Los Angeles Angels.

The Phillies are entering this series on a 2 game losing streak and lost their 3-game series against the Miami Marlins 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 48-42 record overall and have a home record of 22-17. This is the 4th game of a 4-game series with the Padres on Sunday with the 2nd game and the 3rd game of this series still to be played on Saturday in a double-header. They also lost the 1st game of this series on Friday. Their offense ranks 12th in the MLB with a .740 OPS. Ranger Suárez is their starting pitcher on Saturday in game 2 while Zack Wheeler is making his start in this game on Sunday. He is 7-4 with a 4.05 ERA this season. His team won their last 6 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 1 homer, and 0 BB with 7 strikeouts on 7 hits through 6 innings played against the Miami Marlins.

The current betting odds have the Phillies listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Phillies were really hot going into the All-Star break and they are going to be looking to go on a big run now as they need to start climbing the standings. The Padres have also been playing a lot better lately but they are still under .500 on the season and they have a mountain to climb to get into the playoffs with that competitive division they play in. The Padres have Lugo starting in this game and he hasn't been bad this season but the Padres bullpen has been really bad lately, giving up a ton of late runs in their games, and they will be at risk here with this Phillies lineup being really hot from before the break. The Phillies have also been better in their home games this season and they are going to put up runs in this game with how bad the Padres pitching has been lately. The Phillies have had some very good pitching out of their bullpen lately since they haven't been giving up a lot of late runs lately and they also have Wheeler on the mound who has been really good in his home starts all season. He has also been a really reliable starter for the Phillies and he will be able to keep this Padres offense at bay which has also been one of the worst offenses in the league all year. The best way to place a bet here is on the Phillies to win this game.

Padres Phillies Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Sunday, July 16, 2023 (1:35 pm ET start time) is Phillies 5 Padres 2.

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San Diego Padres: 44-47 (-18.4 units) on the moneyline in all games. 19-24 (-9 units) on the moneyline in road games. 16-5 UNDER as an underdog of +100 or higher. 31-16 UNDER when the total is 8.5 to 10. 

Philadelphia Phillies: 21-11 (+9.1 units) on the moneyline when the total is 8 to 8.5. 24-11 (+10.6 units) on the moneyline when the money line is -100 to -150. 9-5 UNDER at home with a money line of -100 to -150. ZACK WHEELER is 23-14 UNDER in home games.

San Diego Padres:  D. Carlton (RP) Late July - Elbow. M. Wacha (SP) Late July - Shoulder. E. Rosario (3B) Late July - Ankle. R. Suarez (SP) Late July - Arm. S. Wilson (SP) Ques Sat - Pectoral. R. Knehr (SP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. L. Campusano (C) Late July - Thumb. D. Pomeranz (RP) Out indefinitely - Forearm.

Philadelphia Phillies:  C. Pache (LF) Late July - Elbow. J. Harrison (2B) Out indefinitely - Wrist. N. Song (SP) Late July - Back. S. Dominguez (RP) Late July - Oblique. J. Alvarado (RP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. R. Hoskins (1B) out for season - Knee.

“Offense seems to be doing pretty well.” - Bob Melvin after his team’s win against the Phillies in their game on Friday.

“We just didn't swing the bats early. Darvish did a nice job of keeping us off balance.” - Rob Thomson after his team’s loss against the Padres in their game on Friday.

Ha-Seong Kim (R) 2B

Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF

Juan Soto (L) LF

Manny Machado (R) 3B

Xander Bogaerts (R) SS

Jake Cronenworth (L) 1B

Gary Sanchez (R) C

Brandon Dixon (R) DH

Trent Grisham (L) CF

Kyle Schwarber (L) LF

Trea Turner (R) SS

Nick Castellanos (R) RF

Bryce Harper (L) DH

J.T. Realmuto (R) C

Bryson Stott (L) 2B

Alec Bohm (R) 3B

Darick Hall (L) 1B

Brandon Marsh (L) CF

Batting Average:  Matthew Batten (.500)

Hits:  Fernando Tatis (86)

Home Runs:  Fernando Tatis (17)

RBI:  Manny Machado (50)

Stolen Bases:  Ha-Seong Kim (16)

Wins:  Michael Wacha (8)

Saves:  Josh Hader (22)

ERA:  Pedro Avila (0.00)

Batting Average:  Cristian Pache (.327)

Hits:  Nick Castellanos (105)

Home Runs:  Kyle Schwarber (22)

RBI:  Alec Bohm (58)

Stolen Bases:  Trea Turner (19)

Wins:  Taijuan Walker (10)

Saves:  Craig Kimbrel (14)

ERA:  Jose Alvarado (1.38)

Managers:

San Diego Padres: Bob Melvin (2nd season)

Philadelphia Phillies: Rob Thomson (2nd season)