by Rod Pearson
Wednesday, Jun 18, 2025
Game Time: 10:10 pm ET, Thursday, June 19, 2025
Venue: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Where to Watch: Sportsnet LA
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Padres +198, Dodgers -247; Over/Under: 9 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Padres +200, Dodgers -250; Over/Under: 9 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Padres +200, Dodgers -250; Over/Under: 9 runs
Season Record
San Diego Padres: 39-33 (3rd place, NL West)
Los Angeles Dodgers: 45-29 (1st place, NL West)
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Recent Form
San Diego Padres: 3-7 last 10
Los Angeles Dodgers: 7-3 last 10
San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Preview and Analysis
The Padres are entering this series off a win and lost their 3-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 39-33 record overall and have a road record of 18-21. This is the series finale of a 4-game series with the Dodgers on Thursday with the 3rd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. The Padres lost the series opener on Monday and the 2nd game on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 20th in the MLB with a .694 OPS. Stephen Kolek is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while rookie pitcher Ryan Bergert is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 1-0 with a 2.33 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 8 SO on 3 hits through 5 IP against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The Dodgers are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the San Francisco Giants 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 45-29 record overall and have a home record of 27-12. This is the 4th game of a 4-game series with the Padres on Thursday with the 3rd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. The Dodgers won the 1st game of that series on Monday and the 2nd game on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 1st in the MLB with a .801 OPS. Emmet Sheehan is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Yoshinobu Yamamoto is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 6-5 with a 2.64 ERA this season. His team lost their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 5 earned runs, 2 homers, and 5 walks with 4 strikeouts on 6 hits through 4.2 innings pitched against the San Francisco Giants.
Padres vs Dodgers Prediction
The current betting odds have the Dodgers listed as a big favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Dodgers have looked really good in their games this season with their 45-29 record overall which has them right at the top of the NL West with one of the best records in the entire MLB. They have looked great in their own ballpark too with their 27-12 home record this year. Meanwhile, the Padres have looked good in their games this season with their 39-33 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL West. They haven't been a good road team though with their 18-21 road record. They haven't looked good in their games lately either, going 3-7 in their last 10 games while the Dodgers are 7-3, and the Dodgers have the better pitching matchup to take advantage of in this one too. Yamamoto is on the mound for the Dodgers in this one and he has looked great this year. He is 6-5 with a 2.64 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs all season. He did give up 5 earned runs in his last start and the team has lost 3 games in a row now with him starting too, but he is going to be looking to bounce back with a better start at home. The Dodgers also have the better offense to back him up and the Padres are going with Bergert in this one. Bergert has looked good this year as he is 1-0 with a 2.33 ERA, but he is also in his rookie year and doesn't have the experience pitching against one of the best lineups in the MLB. This is also an important game for the Dodgers to extend their lead in the division more. The best way to place a bet here is on the Dodgers to win this game and on the runline.
Padres Dodgers Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Thursday, June 19, 2025 (10:10 pm ET start time) is Dodgers 7 Padres 4.
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MLB Betting Trends
San Diego Padres: 49-51 (+12.3 units) on the moneyline as a road underdog of +100 or higher. 30-23 (+8.9 units) on the moneyline on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5. 77-66 (+14.3 units) on the moneyline vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season. 13-7 OVER against division opponents.
Los Angeles Dodgers: 132-79 (-23.2 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -150 or more. 122-81 (-7.1 units) on the moneyline vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse. 33-30 (-9.7 units) on the moneyline vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better. 120-82 OVER as a favorite of -150 or more.
Key Injuries
San Diego Padres: J. Merrill (CF) Seven Day IL - Concussion. M. King (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. J. Heyward (LF) Ten Day IL - Oblique. J. Brito (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. L. Gillaspie (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Oblique. B. Hoeing (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. Y. Darvish (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.
Los Angeles Dodgers: T. Gonsolin (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. L. Garcia (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Adductor. T. Glasnow (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. E. Phillips (RP) Sixty Day IL - forearm. B. Snell (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. R. Sasaki (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. B. Treinen (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. E. Henriquez (SP) Sixty Day IL - Foot. K. Hurt (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. E. Sheehan (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. M. Grove (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. B. Graterol (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. R. Ryan (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. G. Stone (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder.
Notable Quotes
"Tatis, unintentional. In that spot, you don't want a guy on base. Certainly, him bleeding into their guys in the middle part of the order. At that point in time, Shohei comes up with a base open. Vásquez took one shot at him. And then hit him again. It's very hard to miss that bad with a right-handed pitcher." - Dave Roberts on his ejection after his team’s win against the Padres in their game on Tuesday.
“Things happen in baseball. Guys are trying to pitch in. Guys are looking to make quality pitches. Trivino got Tati to open the game when he was the opener in the game at our place. And he got him again today. That didn't feel real good. Just trying to make quality pitches and fight for the inner-half part of the plate. Ball got away from Vásquez. I understand that they have to [issue warnings] at that point. There wasn't any complaint from my side.” - Mike Shildt after his team’s loss against the LA Dodgers in their game on Tuesday.
Starting Lineups
San Diego Padres
Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF
Luis Arraez (L) 1B
Manny Machado (R) 3B
Gavin Sheets (L) LF
Xander Bogaerts (R) DH
Jake Cronenworth (L) 2B
Jose Iglesias (R) SS
Brandon Lockridge (R) CF
Martín Maldonado (R) C
Los Angeles Dodgers
Shohei Ohtani (L) DH
Mookie Betts (R) SS
Freddie Freeman (L) 1B
Will Smith (R) C
Teoscar Hernández (R) RF
Max Muncy (L) 3B
Andy Pages (R) CF
Michael Conforto (L) LF
Tommy Edman (S) 2B
Statistical Leaders
San Diego Padres
Batting Average: Bryce Johnson (1.000)
Hits: Manny Machado (86)
Home Runs: Fernando Tatis (13)
RBI: Manny Machado (45)
Stolen Bases: Fernando Tatis (15)
Wins: Nick Pivetta (7)
Saves: Robert Suarez (21)
ERA: Bradgley Rodriguez (0.00)
Los Angeles Dodgers
Batting Average: Hyeseong Kim (.382)
Hits: Shohei Ohtani (85)
Home Runs: Shohei Ohtani (25)
RBI: Teoscar Hernández (50)
Stolen Bases: Shohei Ohtani (11)
Wins: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (6)
Saves: Tanner Scott (14)
ERA: Evan Phillips (0.00)
Managers:
San Diego Padres: Mike Shildt (2nd season)
Los Angeles Dodgers: Dave Roberts (10th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
