Game Time: 8:00 PM ET, Saturday, February 26th, 2022 

Venue:  FTX Arena, Miami, Florida

Where to Watch:  NBA League Pass

DraftKings:  Spread: 

BetMGM:  Spread:  

VegasInsider:  Spread: 

WynnBet: Spread:  

Opening Line:  Miami -7.5

Spurs: 23-36, 11th place Western Conference

Heat: 38-21, 2nd place Eastern Conference

A battle of non-conference rivals… that aren’t only in different conferences, but at times… in different leagues.  The Spurs are near the bottom of the Western Conference.  The have identified one good player on the roster (PG Dejounte Murray) after having traded DeMar DeRozan who is now an MVP candidate with the Bulls.  What is it about the Spurs?  LaMarcus Aldridge voluntarily goes there and his numbers plummet… DeMar DeRozan is traded there and his numbers plummet.  When LaMarcus Aldridge leaves the Spurs he has been used up and his numbers hover around the same… but when DeMar DeRozan gets traded away his number jump up by 8 ppg and 2 apg.  The guy literally started breathing basketball air again.  I believe wholeheartedly that the disparity is having an curmudgeon septuagenarian coach.  Coach Popovich is perhaps the greatest to ever have coached in the NBA… and don’t try to sell me on Phil Jackson who had 3-4 of the best players to ever play in the NBA during his Championship runs… including the two best 2 guards to ever strap on shoes.  Popovich is different.  He won with the ultimate team player PF/C Tim Duncan and a total team concept… Since those winning days that are now a decade in the rearview… the Spurs have been so rigid that few players could prove themselves under an unbending coach.  It’s time for whole scale change in San Antonio… and perhaps 3 years past the best time for it.  The Heat were winners with Shaq and D Wade… Then winners with LeBron and D Wade… and now are approaching winners again with SF Jimmy Butler and a cast of fantastic players.  Heat coach Erik Spoelstra has spent the last 25 years of his young life in the Heat organization.  The Heat are #2 in the East and don’t have the benefit of having canceled two games like the #1 Chicago Bulls do. When the Bulls make up those games at season end the Heat could jump a full game in the standings.  Next to each other the Spurs are a team that has nothing to win for and the Heat are a team that is usually always winning.

The San Antonio Spurs have won 5 of theri last ten games.  That isn’t just .500, it is also pretty good for a team 13 games below .500.  They also went 5-4-1 ATS during that stretch and 6 Overs with 4 Unders.  The last time the Spurs played the Heat they lost 112-95.  It wasn’t close.  The Heat won outright and ATS while holding the game to an Under.  The Spurs leading scorer PG Djounte Murray got some love and recognition during the All-Star break, but really there were 12 guys with similar numbers throughout the league that didn;t make the squad.  It’s Dejounte’s assists of 9 apg that sets him apart.  The Spurs traded away SG Derrick White to the Boston Celtics at the trade deadline so they could make room for SG Devin Vassell in the starting lineup… There are 4 guys still here that desperately deserve a push out the door. SF Doug McDermott has gone as far as his talent will take him in basketball, same with PF Zach Collins.  They aren’t getting any better and they get hurt a lot.  The Spurs will be in the lottery and should be interviewing for a new head coach… not that Pop ain’t great, he is!... His time may have also passed however.

The Miami Heat have won 6 of their last ten games.  It was a down stretch for them that allowed the Chicago Bulls to sneak up and take back the #1 spot.  Both these teams desperately want #1 to ensure home court advantage whether it be against each other or Milwaukee or Philadelphia.  Neither of them worry about Brooklyn or Boston… but maybe they both should.  Leading scorer for Miami SF Jimmy Butler is the real deal.  He scores 21.8 ppg and plays top notch defense.  Jimmy is surrounded by young talent in SG Tyler Herro, SG Duncan Robinson, PF Bam Adebayo, and former Toronto Raptor PG Kyle Lowry.  It’s all cream at the top of the cake in Miami… they just need to win.

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The Spurs are 23-36, but 30-28-1 ATS.  They have logged 30 Overs, 27 Unders, and 2 push.  They are 12-18 in road games.

The Heat are 38-21 on the season, but 33-25-1.  They have logged 35 Overs, 24 Unders.  They are 19-7 in home games.

The Spurs are 9th in scoring with 111.8 ppg, 9th in rebounds with 45.3 per game, and 1st in AST/TO ratio with 2.2.  Defense is where they lose games with a ranking of 20th while allowing 111.7 ppg from opponents.  Doug McDermott, Zach Collins, and Jakob Poeltl are not defensive wizards… and since none of them are offensive wizards either,,, it’s time for whole sale change.

The Heat are 17th in scoring with 108.9 ppg, 14th in rebounds with 44.8 per game, and 14th in AST/TO ratio with 1.7.  On defense they rank 5th while holding opponents to 104.4 ppg.

Our prediction for Saturday, February 26th is….  Heat 118 - Spurs 112

The Heat will win but the Spurs will play them tough. Pay close attention to the point spread before dropping cash.  The Heat will win, but at the current -7.5 line the bet is for the Spurs and you get to put the points in your pocket.

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(will fill in soon when the numbers settle)

Spurs: SG Josh Primo (wrist) Out ** SG Romeo Langford (groin) Out ** PG Tre Jones (knee) Out

Heat:SG Victor Oladipo (knee) Out ** SG Tyler Herro (knee) Quest ** C Dwayne Dedmon (back) Out

Spurs: SF Keldon Johnson, PF Doug McDermott, C Jakob Poeltl, SG Devin Vasell, PG Dejounte Murray

Heat: PF PJ Tucker, SF Jimmy Butler, C Bam Adebayo, PG Kyle Lowry, SG Duncan Robinson

Spurs

Points: Dejounte Murray 19.9

Assists: Dejounte Murray 9.3

Rebounds: Jakob Poeltl 9.2

Steals: Dejounte Muray 2.0

Blocks: Jakob Poeltl 1.8

Spurs: Gregg Popovich

Heat: Erik Spoelstra