Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/21/2024

Game Time: 1:35 pm ET, Sunday, July 21, 2024

Venue:  PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA

Where to Watch:  NBCS-PH

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -142, Pirates +120; Over/Under:  9 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -140, Pirates +120; Over/Under:  9 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -140, Pirates +120; Over/Under:  9 runs

Philadelphia Phillies:  62-35 (1st place, NL East)

Pittsburgh Pirates:  49-48 (3rd place, NL Central)

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Philadelphia Phillies:  5-5 last 10

Pittsburgh Pirates:  7-3 last 10

The Phillies are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Oakland Athletics 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 62-35 record overall and have a road record of 25-19. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Pirates on Sunday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Saturday. The Phillies lost the series opener of this series on Friday. Their offense ranks 3rd in the MLB with a .758 OPS. Cristopher Sánchez is their starting pitcher on Saturday while rookie pitcher Tyler Phillips is making his start in this game on Sunday. He is 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA this season. His team won their last game this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 ER, 2 HR, and 0 BB with 5 Ks on 6 hits through 6 IP against the Oakland Athletics.

The Pirates are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the Chicago White Sox 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 49-48 record overall and have a home record of 23-24. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Phillies on Sunday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Saturday. The Pirates won the 1st game of this series on Friday. Their offense ranks 27th in the MLB with a .672 OPS. Luis Ortiz is their starting pitcher on Saturday while Marco Gonzales is making his start in this game on Sunday. He is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA this season. His team won 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 0 homers, and 0 BB with 4 strikeouts on 7 hits through 5 innings played against the Chicago White Sox.

The current betting odds have the Pirates listed as an underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Phillies have looked great in their games this season with their 62-35 record overall which has them leading the NL East with the best record in the entire MLB. They have looked good in their road games with their 25-19 road record. Meanwhile, the Pirates haven't looked great in their games this season with their 49-48 record overall and their 23-24 home record. The Pirates have been the much hotter team coming into this one since they are 7-3 in their last 10 games, getting really hot into the All-Star break, while the Phillies are only 5-5. The Pirates also won the 1st game of this series 8-7 in a game where they just kept coming back in. They are going to have Gonzales on the mound here and he has looked great in his starts this season. He is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA and hasn't given up many runs all season. He gave up 1 earned run in his last start and his team has won 3 of their last 4 games with him starting. The Phillies are going to have their rookie Phillips on the mound in this one and he is going to struggle with the Pirates offense getting hot now. He is only 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA and he gave up 4 earned runs in his last start which was a game against the A's who are one of the worst in the MLB. The Phillies have been struggling a lot lately with their pitching staff giving up a lot more runs and even right before the break, they lost a series against the A's and even gave up 18 runs in 1 of those games. The Pirates are finally back over .500 and they are trying to get themselves into a playoff position now so they can make a run. The best way to place a bet here is on the Pirates to win this game.

Phillies Pirates Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Sunday, July 21, 2024 (1:35 pm ET start time) is Pirates 4 Phillies 2.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 54-28 (+12.10 units) on the moneyline in their last 82 games. 61-37 (+18.20 units) on the first 5 moneyline in their last 98 games. 54-39 to the under in their last 93 games. 

Pittsburgh Pirates: 23-13 to the under in their last 36 games. 51-36 to the under with their team total in their last 87 games. 

Philadelphia Phillies:  L. Ortiz (RP) out for season - Ankle. R. Suarez (SP) Prob Mon - Back. Z. Wheeler (SP) Prob Mon - Back. S. Turnbull (SP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. T. Walker (SP) Out indefinitely - Finger. J. Realmuto (C) Out indefinitely - Knee. M. Rucker (RP) Out indefinitely - Finger. D. Covey (RP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder.

Pittsburgh Pirates:  B. Falter (RP) Out indefinitely - Arm. D. Jefferies (RP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. J. Jones (SP) Out indefinitely - Back. H. Stratton (SP) Out indefinitely - Tricep. R. Borucki (RP) Out indefinitely - Wrist. M. Perez (SP) Mid June - Groin. D. Moreta (RP) out for season - Elbow. J. Oviedo (SP) out for season - Elbow. E. Rodriguez (C) out for season - Elbow.

“(Wilson is) a baseball player. He can run. He can hit. ... He's a baseball player, so we're giving him a chance here. Hopefully, he grabs it.” - Rob Thomson after his team’s loss against the Pirates in their game on Friday.

“He was outstanding. I think if anybody needed the four days, it was him, because I think you guys saw him in Chicago. He was beat up and he wasn’t moving at full speed. To be able to get him back to healthy I think is really important.” - Derek Shelton after his team’s win against the Phillies in their game on Friday.

K Schwarber (L) DH

T Turner (R) SS

B Harper (L) 1B

A Bohm (R) 3B

N Castellanos (R) RF

E Sosa (R) 2B

W Wilson (R) LF

G Stubbs (L) C

C Pache (R) CF

A McCutchen (R) DH

B Reynolds (S) LF

O Cruz (L) SS

N Gonzales (R) 2B

R Tellez (L) 1B

K Hayes (R) 3B

J Palacios (L) RF

J Bart (R) C

J Suwinski (L) CF

Batting Average:  Trea Turner (.347)

Hits:  Alec Bohm (109)

Home Runs:  Bryce Harper (21)

RBI:  Alec Bohm (70)

Stolen Bases:  Bryson Stott (22)

Wins:  Aaron Nola (11)

Saves:  José Alvarado (13)

ERA:  Jeff Hoffman (1.09)

Batting Average:  Bryan Reynolds (.288)

Hits:  Bryan Reynolds (113)

Home Runs:  Bryan Reynolds (18)

RBI:  Bryan Reynolds (61)

Stolen Bases:  Ke'Bryan Hayes (8)

Wins:  Mitch Keller (10)

Saves:  David Bednar (17)

ERA:  Colin Holderman (1.72)

Managers:

Philadelphia Phillies: Rob Thomson (3rd season)

Pittsburgh Pirates: Derek Shelton (5th season)