Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/04/2024

Game Time: 2:20 pm ET, Thursday, July 4, 2024

Venue:  Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL 

Where to Watch:  MLB Network

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -135, Cubs +114; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -135, Cubs +114; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -135, Cubs +114; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Philadelphia Phillies:  56-29 (1st place, NL East)

Chicago Cubs:  39-47 (5th place, NL Central)

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Philadelphia Phillies:  7-3 last 10

Chicago Cubs:  3-7 last 10

The Phillies are entering this series off a win and split their 4-game series against the Miami Marlins 2-2 in their last series. They enter this game with a 56-29 record overall and have a road record of 23-15. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Cubs on Thursday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. The Phillies won the series opener of this series on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 4th in the MLB with a .755 OPS. Zack Wheeler is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Cristopher Sánchez is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 6-3 with a 2.41 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 0 BB with 9 Ks on 3 hits through 9 IP against the Miami Marlins.

The Cubs are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 39-47 record overall and have a home record of 22-19. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Phillies on Thursday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. The Cubs lost the 1st game of this series on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 23rd in the MLB with a .677 OPS. Rookie pitcher Shota Imanaga is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Jameson Taillon is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 4-4 with a 3.03 ERA this season. His team lost 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 1 homer, and 1 BB with 5 strikeouts on 4 hits through 6 innings played against the Milwaukee Brewers.

The current betting odds have the Phillies listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Phillies have looked great in their games this season with their 56-29 record overall which has them leading the NL East with one of the best records in the entire MLB. They have also looked great in their road games with their 23-15 road record. Meanwhile, the Cubs haven't looked good in their games this season with their 39-47 record overall which has them at the bottom of the NL Central. They have looked better at home with their 22-19 home record, but they have been terrible over the last few weeks, even going 3-7 in their last 10 games. The Phillies are starting to get hot again too, going 7-3 in their last 10 games, and they have a solid starter on the mound in this game. Sanchez is starting here and he is 6-3 with a 2.41 ERA. He pitched 9 innings in his last start without giving up any runs, and he hasn't been giving up many runs all season either, the team winning their last 3 games with him starting. The Cubs are going with Taillon here and he is 4-4 with a 3.03 ERA, but he did give up 3 earned runs in his last start. He hasn't been giving up a ton of runs lately, but he hasn't been shutting teams out either and that will be an issue when facing one of the best offenses in the MLB like the Phillies have. The Phillies also have a much better pitching staff and they will be looking to get on a roll again after having a mini slump over the last week. The best way to place a bet here is on the Phillies to win this game.  

Phillies Cubs Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Thursday, July 4, 2024 (2:20 pm ET start time) is Phillies 7 Cubs 3.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 49-21 (+16.45 units) on the moneyline in their last 70 games. 48-23 (+23.45 units) on the first 5 moneyline in their last 71 games. 48-21 (+22.85 units) on the first 5 runline in their last 69 games. 

Chicago Cubs: 19-39 (-29.25 units) on the runline in their last 58 games. 14-36 (-20.70 units) on the first 5 moneyline in their last 50 games. 42-33 to the under in their last 75 games. 

Philadelphia Phillies:  T. Walker (SP) - Index Finger. J. Realmuto (C) - Knee. K. Clemens (2B) - Back. M. Rucker (RP) - Hand. D. Covey (RP) - Shoulder. L. Ortiz (RP) - Ankle.

Chicago Cubs:  M. Leiter (RP) - Forearm. M. Tauchman (RF) - Groin. J. Wicks (SP) - Oblique. B. Brown (SP) - Neck. A. Alzolay (RP) - Forearm. Y. Almonte (RP) - Shoulder. D. Palencia (RP) - Shoulder. J. Merryweather (RP) - Shoulder. C. Kilian (SP) - Shoulder.

“I think after that first inning, I was able to settle in a little easier. But that's normal with any start no matter if it's here, Triple-A or any time in my career.” - Michael Mercado after their win against the Cubs in their game on Tuesday.

“Disappointing, for sure. We all had high expectations. I think overall, we still do. Today, I thought we put some good swings on the ball. Just some bad breaks, it looked like. We've got to keep on fighting.” - Cody Bellinger after their loss against the Phillies in their game on Tuesday.

B Stott (L) 2B

T Turner (R) SS

A Bohm (R) 3B

B Marsh (L) LF

N Castellanos (R) RF

K Clemens (L) 1B

D Dahl (L) DH

G Stubbs (L) C

J Rojas (R) CF

N Hoerner (R) 2B

M Busch (L) 1B

C Bellinger (L) RF

S Suzuki (R) DH

I Happ (S) LF

C Morel (R) 3B

D Swanson (R) SS

P Crow-Armstrong (L) CF

T Nido (R) C

Batting Average:  Trea Turner (.338)

Hits:  Alec Bohm (95)

Home Runs:  Bryce Harper (20)

RBI:  Alec Bohm (68)

Stolen Bases:  Bryson Stott (20)

Wins:  Ranger Suárez (10)

Saves:  José Alvarado (12)

ERA:  Jeff Hoffman (1.24)

Batting Average:  David Bote (.304)

Hits:  Cody Bellinger (77)

Home Runs:  Christopher Morel (15)

RBI:  Christopher Morel (45)

Stolen Bases:  Pete Crow-Armstrong (15)

Wins:  Shota Imanaga (7)

Saves:  Héctor Neris (11)

ERA:  Jorge López (0.00)

Managers:

Philadelphia Phillies: Rob Thomson (3rd season)

Chicago Cubs: Craig Counsell (1st season)