Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Preview and Odds - 06/13/2024

Game Time: 7:10 pm ET, Thursday, June 13, 2024

Venue:  Fenway Park, Boston, MA 

Where to Watch:  NESN

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -112, Red Sox -108; Over/Under:  8 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -115, Red Sox -105; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -115, Red Sox -105; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Philadelphia Phillies:  46-20 (1st place, NL East)

Boston Red Sox:  33-34 (4th place, AL East)

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Philadelphia Phillies:  8-2 last 10

Boston Red Sox:  5-5 last 10

The Phillies are entering this series off a loss and split their 2-game series against the New York Mets 1-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 46-20 record overall and have a road record of 19-10. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Red Sox on Thursday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. The Phillies won the series opener of this series on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 4th in the MLB with a .741 OPS. Cristopher Sánchez is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Aaron Nola is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 8-2 with a 2.77 ERA this season. His team won their last 5 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 0 BB with 5 Ks on 2 hits through 7 IP against the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Red Sox are entering this series off a win and split their 4-game series against the Chicago White Sox 2-2 in their last series. They enter this game with a 33-34 record overall and have a home record of 14-19. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Phillies on Thursday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. The Red Sox lost the 1st game of this series on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 9th in the MLB with a .720 OPS. Nick Pivetta is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Tanner Houck is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 6-5 with a 1.91 ERA this season. His team won their last 4 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 1 homer, and 0 BB with 9 strikeouts on 3 hits through 7 innings played against the Chicago White Sox.

The current betting odds have the Phillies listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Phillies have looked great in their games this season with their 46-20 record overall which has them leading the NL East with one of the best records in the entire MLB. They have looked good in their road games too with their 19-10 road record. Meanwhile, the Red Sox haven't looked good in their games this season with their 33-34 record overall which has them trailing well behind the Orioles and the Yankees in the AL East. They have also looked terrible in their own ballpark with their 14-19 home record and their defensive play at home has been specifically bad. Both of these teams are going to have a great starter on the mound here so this will likely be a lower scoring game with some good pitching on both sides. Nola is up for the Phillies and he is 8-2 with a 2.77 ERA this season while Houck is on the mound for the Red Sox and he is 6-5 with a 1.91 ERA. Both of these guys are coming off good starts in their last one and both teams have had a ton of success with these two starters on the mound. The difference in this game is going to come from the offense and that is something that the Phillies have the advantage with. Both teams have good offenses but the Phillies are better and the Red Sox have also had a lot of defensive problems at home this year which is going to lean into this. The best way to place a bet here is on the Phillies to win this game. 

Phillies Red Sox Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Thursday, June 13, 2024 (7:10 pm ET start time) is Phillies 3 Red Sox 1.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 46-20 (+17.4 units) on the moneyline in all games. 12-3 (+9.1 units) on the moneyline when the money line is +125 to -125. 28-8 (+16.2 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. AARON NOLA is 6-1 UNDER when the total is 8 to 8.5 and 13-6 UNDER against AL East opponents.

Boston Red Sox: 189-202 (-24.5 units) on the moneyline in all games. 101-80 (-11.9 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 96-99 (-19.9 units) on the moneyline in home games. 17-5 UNDER as a home favorite of -110 or higher. 20-11 UNDER in home games. 7-1 UNDER against NL East opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies:  J. Realmuto (C) Out indefinitely - Knee. M. Rucker (RP) Out indefinitely - Finger. K. Clemens (2B) Out indefinitely - Back. B. Marsh (CF) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. D. Covey (RP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. T. Turner (SS) Late June - Leg. Y. Marte (SP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. L. Ortiz (RP) Out indefinitely - Ankle.

Boston Red Sox:  Z. Penrod (SP) Late June - Leg. R. Devers (3B) Prob Tues - Knee. L. Perales (SP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. T. O'Neill (RF) Ques Wed - Knee. L. Hendriks (RP) Early August - Elbow. M. Yoshida (LF) Ques Wed - Hand. G. Whitlock (RP) Out indefinitely - Oblique. C. Murphy (RP) out for season - Elbow. B. Mata (SP) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. C. Martin (RP) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. V. Grissom (2B) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. R. Gonzalez (2B) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. L. Giolito (SP) out for season - Elbow. T. Casas (3B) Out indefinitely - Ribs. W. Abreu (CF) Out indefinitely - Ankle. T. Story (2B) out for season - Shoulder.

“It’s definitely a tone setter for us when he goes out there and does that. I think that’s why he’s hitting leadoff for us. I know, as a starter, if somebody leads off with a home run, it’s kind of a dagger.” - Zack Wheeler after their win against the Red Sox in their game on Tuesday.

“I told (manager Alex Cora) that I got the inning. I got the next inning. I don’t want to hear it.” - Kenley Jansen after their win against the White Sox in their game on Sunday.

Kyle Schwarber (L) DH

Nick Castellanos (R) RF

Bryce Harper (L) 1B

Alec Bohm (R) 3B

Bryson Stott (L) 2B

Edmundo Sosa (R) SS

David Dahl (L) LF

Garrett Stubbs (L) C

Johan Rojas (R) CF

Jarren Duran (L) LF

David Hamilton (L) SS

Rob Refsnyder (R) RF

Rafael Devers (L) 3B

Masataka Yoshida (L) DH

Connor Wong (R) C

Dominic Smith (L) 1B

Enmanuel Valdez (L) 2B

Ceddanne Rafaela (R) CF

Batting Average:  David Dahl (.400)

Hits:  Alec Bohm (72)

Home Runs:  Bryce Harper (15)

RBI:  Alec Bohm (51)

Stolen Bases:  Bryson Stott (18)

Wins:  Ranger Suárez (10)

Saves:  José Alvarado (12)

ERA:  Matt Strahm (0.67)

Batting Average:  Connor Wong (.329)

Hits:  Jarren Duran (72)

Home Runs:  Rafael Devers (13)

RBI:  Ceddanne Rafaela (37)

Stolen Bases:  Jarren Duran (15)

Wins:  Brayan Bello (6)

Saves:  Kenley Jansen (9)

ERA:  Pablo Reyes (0.00)

Managers:

Philadelphia Phillies: Rob Thomson (3rd season)

Boston Red Sox: Álex Cora (4th season)