by James Q
Monday, Sep 27, 2021Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Odds Preview Picks - 09/28/2021
Game Time: 7:20 pm ET, Tuesday, September 28th, 2021
Venue: Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia
Where to Watch: NBCSP, Bally Sports South, FS1
Opening MLB Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline: Philly +105 Atlanta -125; Over/Under: 7.5 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline: Philly +105 Atlanta -125; Over/Under: 7.5 runs
Caesars: Moneyline: Philly +105 Atlanta -125; Over/Under: 7.5 runs
Season Record
Phillies: 81-75 (2nd place NL East)
Braves: 83-72 (1st place NL Eats)
The Phillies are masters of their own destiny. 2 ½ games behind the Braves with 6 games left to play… they could win. A three-game series against the Braves could vault them into 1st place if they Sweep, but if they only got two wins?... They finish the season with a three-game series against the easy to beat Miami Marlins. There are several mathematical scenarios where the Phillies jump the Braves into first place and win the division by a couple of games.
The Braves have been in the lead all season and shouldn’t have this type of headache. The Phillies are way too close to rest anybody with six games left. The Phillies weren’t supposed to be a problem right now… the Braves were supposed to coast as recently as August. The saving grace for Atlanta is the final three games of the season are against the New York Mets.
So ultimately the automatic playoff bid or the Wild Card crapshoot in the NL East could come down to how the Marlins and the Mets play their final three games… huh?
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Phillies vs Braves Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
The Phillies are 7-3 over their last ten games. Logging 2 Overs, 7 Unders, and 1 Push over that span. They went 2-1 against the New York Mets, 2-1 against the Baltimore Orioles, 3-1 against the Pittsburgh Pirates. They have gotten a boost from the last ten games… they must not let up now.
The Braves are also 7-3 over the last ten games. It is the only reason they have been able to hold off the Phillies. They notched 5 Overs and 5 Unders. They went 1-2 against the San Francisco Giants, 3-1 against the Arizona Diamondbacks, 3-0 against the San Diego Padres (who have been collapsing).
Offensive Analysis
The Phillies hitters are 15th in team batting average .242, 10th in runs scored, 14th in home runs 192. They are slightly above average on the offensive side of things. The lineup has Bryce Harper in it, who is always a threat for a big day at the plate, but overall is just average.
The Braves are 11th in team batting average, 9th in runs scored 762, 3rd in home runs 232. They are wedged between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants in home runs… They are a good hitting team. They can launch it out.
Defensive Analysis
The Phillies pitchers are 20th in team ERA 4.41, 9th in strikeouts, 16th in WHIP. They are a wonder. They have been hanging in with the Atlanta Braves while just being average at the plate and average on the mound. The reason of course is timeliness. They have improved as the season has gone on, so while they are only average, right now they are pitching above average. It needs to translate into wins over the next six games.
The Atlanta Braves are 19th in team ERA 3.95, 14th in strikeouts 1369, 12th in WHIP 1.26. The last week of the season will define the season. They need to hold off the Phillies and save some pitching strength for the NL MLB playoffs.
Phillies vs Braves Prediction
Our prediction for Tuesday, September 28th is… Phillies 5 - Braves 4
An underdog win, with an easy Over.
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MLB Betting Trends
The Phillies are 40-30 against NL East opponents +8.1 units on the moneyline.
The Phillies are 32-31 as the underdog, +10.0 units on the moneyline.
The Braves are 37-37 in home games, -16.5 units on the moneyline.
The Braves are 59-51 in night games, -7.1 units on the money line.
Key Injuries
Phillies: Matt Moore SP Out 60 Day IL * Connor Brogdon RP Out 10 Day IL
Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr RF Out * Mike Soroka SP Out
Players to Watch
The Phillies will start Zach Wheeler on the mound. The right-handed pitcher is 14-9, 2.79 ERA, 240 strikeouts in 206 innings of work, 1.02 WHIP. The 31 year old is an ACE. This season marks a slight improvement to his ERA, WHIP and strikeout to inning ratio. He is getting better within his role as star pitcher,
The Braves’ starting pitcher will be Charlie Morton, also a righty, 16-7, 3.05 ERA, 170 SO in 200 IP. Adam is 40 years old. According to the MLB actuary tables, at any moment Charlie’s arm could fall off. Until that happens he will happily enter games as an active ACE badass.
Notable Quotes
“We’ve got to win one game Tuesday,...That’s how you have to look at it. Take the day off, rest tomorrow, guys can probably use the day off. Then you’ve got to win one game Tuesday." - Phillies Manager Joe Girardi.
“At one point it felt like we were in a playoff situation, with the crowd going nuts,...It was like a playoff game.” -Atlanta Manager Brian Snitker. About the battle with the San Diego Padres… which wasn’t a playoff game.
Starting Lineups
Phillies:
O. Herrera, CF
J. Segura, 2B
B. Harper, RF
J. Realmuto, C
B. Miller, 1B
A. McCutchen, LF
D. Gregorius, SS
F. Galvis, 3B
Braves:
J. Soler, RF
F. Freeman, 1B
O. Albies, 2B
A. Riley, 3B
E. Rosario, LF
T. d'Arnaud, C
J. Pederson, RF
D. Swanson, SS
Statistical Leaders
Phillies:
Batting Average: Bryce Harper .313
Hits: Jean Segura 148
Wins: Zach Wheeler 14
Saves: Hector Neris 12
Holds: Jose Alvarado 16
Braves:
Batting Average: Austin Riley .303
RBI: Ozzie Albies 103
Hits: Freddie Freeman 175
Wins: Charlie Morton 13
ERA: Max Fried 3.12
Saves: Will Smith 35
Holds: Luke Jackson 29
Weather Forecast
Partly Cloudy. Humidity 55%. Wind 6 mph.
James Q
About the Author:
James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.
