Philadelphia Flyers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 10/18/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Monday, Oct 17, 2022
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL
Where to watch: ESPN

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Flyers +200, Lightning -240
FanDuel: Flyers +220, Lightning -280
BetMGM: Flyers +190, Lightning -238
Caesars: Flyers +215, Lightning -267

Season record
Flyers: 2-0-0
Lightning: 1-2-0

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Flyers - Lightning preview and analysis


Flyers vs. Lightning
 
I am happy to report that through two games, John Tortorella’s coaching tactics have not killed the Philadelphia Flyers yet. We’re still early and things can progress at any given time, but the Flyers have two quality home wins over the Vancouver Canucks and New Jersey Devils to pat their backs on, and that says a lot. The Flyers have found ways to score goals a little bit while still trying to figure out if they can play a solid game. Travis Konecny has led the way with goals early with three in two games, as well as an assist, while Ivan Provorov has three assists to lead the way for the Flyers. But if the Flyers are going to do anything this year, their defense and goaltending are going to have to come up big many times. And that’s more of a statement driven toward Carter Hart than anything. The young Flyers goalie made 28 saves in the 3-2 win over Vancouver this past Saturday. He’s allowed just two goals each in his first two starts, but that level of production is going to have to continue.
 
“We didn't panic," Tortorella said. “I think to go through that the second game of the year and to succeed, it is something we can lean on if we get in that situation again.”
 
Tortorella’s hiring came with some skepticism at the time, and it still does, to be honest. The way he has grinded down his teams with his rugged, physical style of play doesn’t bode well for this young group. Cam Atkinson remains out, Owen Tippett just went on IR, and now Rasmus Ristolainen is also on IR. He needs some sort of health in order to get this team to where he wants them to go.
 
It seems like we find this way for the Tampa Bay Lightning every year, at least to start. They’ve gotten off to slow starts out of the gate over the last couple of years and yet they still find a way to reach the Stanley Cup Final. This is no different with Tampa out to a 1-2-0 start and looking for some answers defensively. The Lightning are coming off a 6-2 loss in Pittsburgh over the weekend, the second night of a back-to-back off traveling after beating Columbus 5-2 the night prior. So, I wouldn’t look too much into how that game panned out, even though the Penguins looked really good on this night.
 
“(Pittsburgh) is a really good, skilled team,” Lightning center Brayden Point said. “They come at you in waves. Tonight just wasn’t good enough.”
 
But that’s why you should be calm when looking at matchups like these. The Lightning are going to roll through teams that they should. Philadelphia fits that description. The Flyers are too banged up and won’t sustain this, especially when the Lightning are about to play their home opener. If you’re going to take the Flyers at the +190 range, do it at your own risk.
 

Prediction

 
I’m looking for the big players to step up for Tampa in front of its home crowd. Philadelphia hasn’t been overwhelmed as of yet, but will likely be heading into Amalie Arena. Lightning win 5-2

Betting trends


Flyers are 7-21 after a one-goal win in their last game in the last three years.

Flyers are 16-34 off a win or tie in their last game over the last three years.

Lightning are 56-39 off an over the last three years.

Lightning are 16-7 off a loss by three goals or more the last three years.

Projected lines


Flyers:

Scott Laughton -- Kevin Hayes -- Travis Konecny

James van Riemsdyk -- Morgan Frost -- Tanner Laczynski

Joel Farabee -- Noah Cates -- Wade Allison

Nicolas Deslauriers -- Jackson Cates -- Olle Lycksell

Ivan Provorov -- Tony DeAngelo

Travis Sanheim -- Justin Braun

Egor Zamula -- Nick Seeler

Carter Hart

Lightning:

Brandon Hagel -- Brayden Point -- Nikita Kucherov

Nicholas Paul -- Steven Stamkos -- Alex Killorn

Ross Colton -- Vladislav Namestnikov -- Corey Perry

Cole Koepke -- Pierre-Edouard Bellemare -- Pat Maroon

Victor Hedman -- Cal Foote

Mikhail Sergachev -- Erik Cernak

Haydn Fleury -- Philippe Myers

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Statistical leaders


Flyers:
Points: Travis Konecny -- 4
Goals: Travis Konecny -- 3
Assists: Ivan Provorov -- 3
Goalie: Carter Hart -- 2-0-0, 1.00 GAA, .940 SV%

Lightning:
Points: Steven Stamkos -- 5
Goals: Steven Stamkos -- 4
Assists: Nikita Kucherov -- 3
Goalie: Andrei Vasilevskiy -- 1-1-0, 2.54 GAA, .925 SV%

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert hockey picks today. And if you enjoyed this Philadelphia Flyers - Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NHL projections and previews.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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