Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction, Preview and Odds - 03/15/2025

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Saturday, March 15, 2025

Venue:  Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON

Where to Watch:  ESPN+

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Senators +140, Maple Leafs -166; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Senators +140, Maple Leafs -165; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Senators +140, Maple Leafs -165; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

Ottawa Senators:  35-25-5 (4th place, Atlantic Division)

Toronto Maple Leafs:  39-23-3 (2nd place, Atlantic Division)

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Ottawa Senators:  6-3-1 last 10

Toronto Maple Leafs:  6-3-1 last 10

The Senators are entering this game with 75 points, a 35-25-5 record overall, and they are 15-16-3 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Boston Bruins in their last game, winning that one at home 6-3. Drake Batherson led the team in goals scored with 2 while Ridly Greig, Shane Pinto, Claude Giroux, and Tyler Kleven each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Drake Batherson, Ridly Greig, Shane Pinto, Michael Amadio, Thomas Chabot, Dylan Cozens, Nikolas Matinpalo, Tim Stützle, and Brady Tkachuk each led the team in assists with 1 while Shane Pinto, Thomas Chabot, Dylan Cozens, and Tyler Kleven each led the team in shots on net in that game with 3. Linus Ullmark was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 3 goals on 25 shots with 22 saves and a .880 save percentage. Their offense has scored 191 goals this season averaging 2.9 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 185 goals against them allowing 2.8 goals per game.

The Maple Leafs are entering this game with 81 points, a 39-23-3 record overall, and they are 20-12-1 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Florida Panthers in their last game, losing that one at home 3-2. Max Domi and John Tavares each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Simon Benoit, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Calle Järnkrok, and William Nylander each led the team in assists with 1 while William Nylander led the team in shots on net in that game with 6. Anthony Stolarz was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 3 goals on 25 shots with 22 saves and a .880 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 208 goals this season averaging 3.2 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 193 goals against them allowing 3 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Maple Leafs listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Maple Leafs have looked really good in their games this season with their 39-23-3 record overall which has them in 2nd place of their division in the East and in a playoff spot. They have looked good on home ice this year with their 20-12-1 home record. Meanwhile, the Senators have looked good in their games this season with their 35-25-5 record overall which has them in 4th place of their division in the East and in a Wild Card spot. They are in the first Wild Card spot in the East and have a 5 point lead over the next Wild Card team, but they haven't been a good road team with their 15-16-3 road record this season. They have looked good lately as they are 6-3-1 in their last 10 games and have a ton of momentum on their side with 5 wins in a row now, but this could be the game where that ends. The Maple Leafs have also looked good lately as they are 6-3-1 in their last 10 games, but the Senators are coming off a huge 6-3 win over the Bruins in their last one while the Maple Leafs are coming off a tight home loss to the Panthers. They lost that game 3-2 on home ice and they are going to bring their best effort here to bounce back and be the team that ends this winning streak for the Senators. The best way to place a bet here is on the Maple Leafs to win this game. 

Senators Maple Leafs Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Saturday, March 15, 2025 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Leafs 5 Senators 3.

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Ottawa Senators: 23-19 (+9.8 units) on the moneyline as a road underdog of +100 to +150. 16-6 (+11.4 units) on the moneyline off a home win against a division rival. 62-48 (+12.3 units) on the moneyline after playing a home game. 25-11 under when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%).

Toronto Maple Leafs: 63-43 (-16.4 units) on the moneyline as a home favorite. 55-46 (-16.6 units) on the moneyline revenging a loss versus opponent as a favorite. 130-95 (-13.3 units) on the moneyline against mistake free teams - opponents average 4 power plays/game or less. 7-2 UNDER in a home game where the total is 5.5. 

Ottawa Senators:  B. Tkachuk (LW) Day To Day - Hip. T. Hamonic (D) Day To Day - Lower Body. N. Cousins (C) Out - Knee.

Toronto Maple Leafs:  M. Pacioretty (LW) Out - Undisclosed. J. Hakanpaa (D) Out - Knee.

“I think that our mindset, like, we're in such a tight playoff push right now and these guys are battling for a playoff spot. I think that we all knew that we all needed to play our best tonight. And I thought that, I don't know, we just played a simple game really, got pucks in deep, got some some low-to-highs from the ‘D’ and we just got some shots on net, and a couple went in, so it was good to get a couple goals right away and I think that set us up for the rest of the night.” - Tyler Kleven after their win against the Bruins in their game on Thursday.

“It was a good battle. Five-on-five I thought a pretty even game. I liked our third period a lot. Difference is they score two power play goals and we didn’t capitalize on our PP. I knew going in, we all knew going in, it’s tight. The way they play, there’s not a lot of room and you have to stay patient with it in your game and not force things, and I thought we did a good job of that. We limited them shots and they limited us shots. That’s a high volume shot team, so I thought our checking was good and we did a lot of good things. You always want to be better; we’ve got to push through this.” - Craig Berube after his team’s loss against the Panthers in their game on Thursday.

LW Brady Tkachuk

C Tim Stutzle

RW Claude Giroux

LD Jake Sanderson

RD Artyom Zub

G Linus Ullmark

LW Matthew Knies

C Auston Matthews

RW Mitchell Marner

LD Morgan Rielly

RD Brandon Carlo

G Anthony Stolarz

Points: T. Stutzle (67)

Goals: B. Tkachuk (27)

Assists: T. Stutzle (47)

GAA: L. Ullmark (2.68)

Points: M. Marner (80)

Goals: W. Nylander (36)

Assists: M. Marner (59)

GAA: A. Stolarz (2.37)

Coaches:

Ottawa Senators: Travis Green (1st season)

Toronto Maple Leafs: Craig Berube (1st season)