by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Oct 15, 2021
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
Where to watch: ESPN+
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Maple Leafs -220, Senators +180
BetMGM: Maple Leafs -238, Senators +190
Caesars: Maple Leafs -230, Senators +190
Season record
Senators: 1-0-0, 2 points
Maple Leafs: 1-1-0, 2 points
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Senators - Maple Leafs preview and analysis
Recent form
Senators: won 3-2 vs. Maple Leafs on Thursday
Maple Leafs: won 2-1 vs. Canadiens on Wednesday; played Ottawa in back-to-back
We are not in the part of the world yet where the Ottawa Senators and Toronto Maple Leafs face any other teams but those in Canada.
Case in point: The two will conclude their home-and-home Saturday in the artist formerly known as the Air Canada Centre with the Senators looking to complete the rare sweep of Toronto.
The Leafs have played a good amount of hockey to start the season, but the excitement factor hasn’t quite been there primarily due to Auston Matthews missing the start of the season. The reigning Rocket Richard winner is set to miss this game, but is expected to make his season debut Monday at home against the New York Rangers.
But it’s going to be an adjustment for Toronto as the season goes on, as was the case of Thursday’s game. The Leafs lost 3-2 after falling behind three goals in the first period. Chris Tierney opened the scoring, but Tyler Ennis (power play) and Alex Formenton scored 1:01 apart to end the period.
Toronto was coming off a 2-1 win Wednesday against the Montreal Canadiens in its season opener.
The Leafs peppered Anton Forsberg with 48 shots. Normally the backup to Matt Murray (illness), the Sens got a stellar 46-save performance from Forsberg at Canadian Tire Centre. Think about the fact that it took two power-play goals in the third period from Jason Spezza and William Nylander to finally break through Forsberg.
Murray was placed on injured reserve on Friday due to a non-COVID related illness, and Forsberg will get the start at puck drop.
It’s October, but look for the Senators to be a team to watch as far as young talent goes. Now with Brady Tkachuk locked up for the next seven years, let’s see if Ottawa keeps the core together beyond this year. They are a team, as Eugene Melnyk would say.
Look for Jack Campbell to get the start for Toronto after getting the night off Thursday.
Prediction
Now that it’s Campbell’s net and it being in Toronto, expect this version of the Battle of Ontario to finish differently from Thursday. The Leafs will bounce back and show the young Senators that there’s still time to grow. Leafs win 3-1
Betting trends
Ottawa is 10-21 in the last three seasons off a home win.
Toronto is 41-26 the last three seasons after playing a road game.
Projected lines
Senators:
Tim Stutzle -- Josh Norris -- Drake Batherson
Nick Paul -- Shane Pinto -- Connor Brown
Alex Formenton -- Chris Tierney -- Tyler Ennis
Zach Sanford -- Logan Shaw -- Parker Kelly
Thomas Chabot -- Artem Zub
Victor Mete -- Nikita Zaitsev
Nick Holden -- Josh Brown
Anton Forsberg
Filip Gustavsson
Injuries: Colin White (shoulder), Matt Murray (illness)
Maple Leafs:
Nick Ritchie -- John Tavares -- Mitch Marner
Michael Bunting -- Alexander Kerfoot -- William Nylander
Pierre Engvall -- David Kampf -- Ondrej Kase
Mike Amadio -- Jason Spezza -- Wayne Simmonds
Morgan Rielly -- T.J. Brodie
Jake Muzzin -- Justin Holl
Rasmus Sandin -- Travis Dermott
Jack Campbell
Petr Mrazek
Injuries: Auston Matthews (wrist), Ilya Mikheyev (hand)
Statistical leaders
Senators:
Points: Tyler Ennis -- 2
Goals: Three tied -- 1
Assists: Three tied -- 1
TOI: Thomas Chabot -- 26:24
Goalie: Anton Forsberg -- 1-0-0, 2.00 GAA, .958 save percentage
Maple Leafs:
Points: William Nylander -- 3
Goals: William Nylander -- 2
Assists: Morgan Rielly -- 2
TOI: Morgan Rielly -- 23:11
Goalie: Jack Campbell -- 1-0-0, 0.76 GAA, .976 save percentage
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
