by Chuck Sommers
Saturday, Sep 03, 2022
Game time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH
Where to watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Ohio State -16, total 59
FanDuel: Ohio State -15.5, total 59.5
BetMGM: Ohio State -16, total 59.5
Caesars: Ohio State -16, total 59
2021 season record
No. 5 Notre Dame: 11-2, lost Fiesta Bowl to Oklahoma State (lone regular season loss to No. 4 Cincinnati)
No. 2 Ohio State: 11-2 (8-1 Big Ten), won Rose Bowl 48-45 vs. Utah
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Notre Dame - Ohio State preview, analysis and prediction
The Ohio State Buckeyes want to be in the national championship game. Anything less than that, in the eyes of their head coach at least, would be considered a failure. But by all accounts, Ohio State did fail last year.
The Buckeyes failed while watching their biggest rival go all the way to the College Football Playoff. They sat and watched the Michigan Wolverines win the Big Ten championship and, for one year, reclaim a leg up on OSU in the arms race.
But Ohio State can make a huge statement Saturday against the No. 5-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the first game in the era of new head coach Marcus Freeman.
When we talk about the Buckeyes, of course it starts and ends with quarterback CJ Stroud. If there’s anyone that is going to challenge Bryce Young for the Heisman Trophy this year, it’s the QB from OSU. If not for the play of Stroud, the Buckeyes wouldn’t have won the Rose Bowl against Utah in the fashion they did, let alone come within a win against Michigan from being in another Big Ten title game and the College Football Playoff.
We’re talking about an Ohio State team that returns most of its offense that led the nation at 45.7 points per game and 561.5 total yards per game. The passing offense led by Stroud was tops in the Big Ten and third overall at a shade under 381 passing yards per game. The rushing attack was in the top third in the country. If anything’s going to happen for Ohio State this year, it has to come off the arm of Stroud.
It's only the third time in program history that Ohio State opens the season against a top-five opponent and the first such instance since 1986. But when you look at the Buckeyes’ schedule all together this year, there aren’t many instances where ranked opponents will be the norm. Outside of Michigan and maybe Michigan State, the Buckeyes aren’t facing any noteworthy ranked opponents following Notre Dame.
And especially when it comes to the non-conference slate, following the Irish the Buckeyes will host Arkansas State and Toledo. Ohio State opens the year with five consecutive home games and only go on the road four times this year. In short, Ohio State better hope that they don’t lose any games because the CFP committee might sour if they can’t win at home. Going to East Lansing and Happy Valley are must-wins.
But this matchup with Notre Dame is the tone-setter for Ohio State. A win against a top-five team, no matter how many questions arise, will more than likely calm any nervous tension involving the Buckeyes. There’s no doubt that Notre Dame wants to win for Freeman, after he coached that team to the Fiesta Bowl upon Brian Kelly’s departure to LSU, and they only lost by two.
The biggest difference for Notre Dame, outside of the coach, is the quarterback situation. Jack Coan is gone, and in comes sophomore Tyler Buchner to be the guy on Saturday. The former four-star quarterback from La Jolla, California gets the opportunity to prove he’s the guy. He appeared in 10 games last year with six touchdowns. He’s a dual-threat option that, given Ohio State’s inconsistencies on defense last year, could pose some serious problems.
Prediction
The line has moved up to as high as 16 in some Vegas books, which makes sense but also seems a tad high. There’s no doubt Ohio State will put up points, and the thought of a young quarterback in that hostile environment doesn’t bode well for Notre Dame, but I think the Irish keep this to within two scores. They’re 6-2 ATS on the road in their last eight and 35-23 ATS as a road dog. I like Ohio State to win, but the Irish keep it close. Ohio State wins by 13
Betting trends
Notre Dame is 15-10 ATS in all games the past three years.
Notre Dame is 6-2 ATS on the road the past three seasons.
Ohio State is 5-5 ATS at home the past three seasons, and 107-87 since 1992.
Ohio State is 178-141 ATS as a favorite since 1992.
Ohio State is 28-27 in its last 55 ATS when a home favorite between 14.5 and 21 points.
2021 statistical leaders
Notre Dame
Passing: Jack Coan -- 3,150 yards, 25 TD, 7 INT
Rushing: Kyren Williams -- 1,002 yards, 14 TD
Receiving: Kevin Austin Jr. -- 888 yards, 7 TD
Defense: Isaiah Foskey -- 11 sacks
Ohio State
Passing: C.J. Stroud -- 4,435 yards, 44 TD, 6 INT
Rushing: Treveyon Henderson -- 1,248 yards, 15 TD
Receiving: Jaxon Smith-Njigba -- 1,606 yards, 9 TD
Defense: Haskell Garrett -- 5.5 sacks
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
