by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Oct 22, 2024
Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, October 26, 2024
Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Where to Watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: ND -13, Navy +13; Over/Under: 52 points
Bet365: Point Spread: ND -13, Navy +13; Over/Under: 52 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: ND -12.5, Navy +12.5; Over/Under: 52.5 points
Season Record
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 6-1 (0-0) (FBS Independent)
Navy Midshipmen: 6-0 (4-0) (2nd place, AAC)
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Recent Form
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: won their last game on the road against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 31-13.
Navy Midshipmen: won their last game at home against the Charlotte 49ers 51-17.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Navy Midshipmen Preview and Analysis
Notre Dame is entering this game with a 6-1 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-1 in their home games, 2-0 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Georgia Tech 31-14. Riley Leonard was the starting QB and he completed 20/29 passes for 203 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Jadarian Price led the team in rushing yards with 69. Jeremiyah Love led the receivers with 57 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Drayk Bowen led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while Rylie Mills led the defense in sacks with 1.5. Xavier Watts and Adon Shuler each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
Navy is entering this game with a 6-0 record overall and they have a 4-0 record in their conference games too. They are 4-0 in their home games, 2-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Charlotte 51-17. Blake Horvath was the starting QB and he completed 7/13 passes for 117 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Alex Tecza led the team in rushing yards with 68 and 2 TDs. Alex Tecza led the receivers with 46 receiving yards on 1 reception and 1 TD. Rayuan Lane III led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Dashaun Peele, Justin Reed, Tyler Narayan, and Justyn Ross each led the defense in sacks with 1. Dashaun Peele led the defense in interceptions with 2 while Rayuan Lane III and Kyle Jacob each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
Notre Dame vs Navy Prediction
The current betting odds have Notre Dame listed as a 13 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Notre Dame has looked really good in their games this season with their 6-1 record overall. Their only loss of the season was at home to Northern Illinois in a shocker, but they have been rolling in their games since then. Meanwhile, Navy has also looked great in their games this season with their 6-0 record overall and their 4-0 conference record which has them right near the top of the AAC. They have been rolling teams all season and are coming off another huge win in their last one, but they have also played against a lot of weaker teams that they have been able to get leads against and hold on. Navy has had a really weak schedule this year and they haven't really played against a team that can take the lead on them. Now they will be facing a much better Notre Dame team that is going to have a lead at some point, and Navy hasn't really been faced with the challenge of playing from behind yet. They don't have the offense to do so either and once Notre Dame gets out ahead, Navy will be forced to throw the ball more which will disrupt their game plan. Notre Dame has a really good defense that will be able to slow down this Navy offense and once Notre Dame starts pulling away in this one, Navy won't have many options to pull off a comeback. The best way to place a bet here is on Notre Dame to cover the spread in this game.
Notre Dame Navy Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 26, 2024 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Notre Dame 41 Navy 17.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 20-11 ATS in all lined games. 9-3 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 9-2 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game. 12-3 OVER after a win by 17 or more points. 15-7 OVER after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins. 9-5 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record.
Navy Midshipmen: 3-7 ATS in non-conference games. 1-3 ATS in games played on a neutral field. 0-3 1H ATS as a neutral field underdog. 5-0 OVER after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread. 5-0 OVER after scoring 37 points or more last game. 6-1 OVER after a win by 17 or more points.
Key Injuries
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: T. Johnson (SAF) Questionable - Foot. M. Jeter (K) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Morrison (CB) Out - Hip. C. Carr (QB) Questionable - Elbow. B. Traore (DL) Out - Knee. C. Tucker (CB) Out - Knee. G. Payne (RB) Out - Knee. C. Jagusah (OL) Out - Pectoral. T. Bennie-Powell (SAF) Out - Shoulder. S. Prescod (OL) Out - Shoulder.
Navy Midshipmen: I. Oniha (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Bradley (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed.
Notable Quotes
“It’s very easy to get greedy and want to make the explosive play, but throughout my career, I’ve learned that just taking what the defense gives me is what wins ballgames. Settle down, trust your eyes, trust your coaching and you get the job done. And we did a pretty good job with that.” - Riley Leonard after their win against GA Tech in their last game.
“It's a team that is focused on the work and the process. I thought we were going to be a bowl team, but it was not based on the talent of our football team, it was based on the character and the intangibles and the work that we put it in." - Brian Newberry after his team’s win against Charlotte in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
WR Collins, Beaux
WR Faison, Jordan
WR Greathouse, Jaden
TE Evans, Mitchell
QB Leonard, Riley
RB Love, Jeremiyah
Navy Midshipmen
WR Kent, Nathan
TE Howard, Cody
QB Horvath, Blake
RB Chatman, Brandon
RB Heidenreich, Eli
RB Tecza, Alex
Statistical Leaders
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Passing: R. Leonard (1182)
Rushing: J. Love (462)
Receiving: B. Collins (317)
Touchdowns: R. Leonard (10)
Navy Midshipmen
Passing: B. Horvath (888)
Rushing: B. Horvath (621)
Receiving: E. Heidenreich (485)
Touchdowns: B. Horvath (10)
Coaches:
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Marcus Freeman (4th season)
Navy Midshipmen: Brian Newberry (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
