Game Time: 8:00 PM ET, Saturday, February 19th, 2021

Venue:  Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, Cleveland, Ohio

Where to Watch:  TNT

 

The NBA 3 point shooting contest is not a governed event.  The statistics of each player are not entirely applicable.  As such you will find different odds per online Sportsbook that posts them.  It is worth noting that with an 8-player field this will be listed with short and long odds per player.

The Current odds that I could find to gamble on are:  

Patty Mills +500
Zach LaVine +450
CJ MCCollum +650
Luke Kennard +550
Trae Young +450
Karl-Anthony Towns +950
Fred VanVleet +550
Desmond Bane +600

 

The NBA Mountain Dew 3-Point Contest during the All-Star Weekend has reached an all-time high in popularity.  People love it because unlike the Dunk Contest it does not need judges!  The players who compete either make the balls on the racks or they do not.  The rules have adjusted over the years.  It used to be 5 racks of ten balls each worth 1 point.  The high score was 50 so cut and dry whoever made the most… would win.  Then it became 5 racks of ten balls with 9 worth 1 point and 1 worth 2 points… so the highest score could come from the player that made the most “moneyballs” and not necessarily the most shots…. Then they added a couple of single “Mountain Dew” deeper balls from the logo spot on the court.  Those balls are worth even more.  So, if they add or take away a wrinkle to the rules this year… the goal is the same…. Make The Most Shots.

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Luke Kennard: Luke is averaging 11.6 ppg in 49 games played this season.  His specialty is shooting.  The stuff in his veins is arctic ice.  He is the favorite just based on 3PT%.

Patty Mills: Patty is averaging 13.2 ppg in 57 games played this season.  He stands at just 6’0 tall, but he plays reliably big.  He is not a safe bet, the man shoots in streaks.

Desmond Bane:  Desmond is averaging 17.9 ppg in 56 games played this season.  It’s funny that he was a 2020 selection of the Boston Celtics… He would have allowed the Celtics to move Jaylen Brown and land an all-star big man.  His future is bright and he is looking to the one day he won’t have to share the spotlight with Ja Morant.  He will dominate this contest.

Karl-Anthony Towns:  Karl is the Big man of the group averaging 24.4 ppg in 52 games played.  He is a wonderful shooting big man, but gets the majority of his stats in the paint.  There is some argument that he is normally wide open when he hits those in game threes… so he is a legit dark horse to win it… he will be wide open in the contest too.

Zach LaVine: Zach is averaging 24.6 ppg in 47 games played.  He is a legit star and will be in the all-star game.  He is also a former winner of the dunk contest.  He will not win this contest.  The trifecta of All-star, Dunk winner, and 3PT contest winner will go unclaimed in my lifetime.

Fred VanVleet:  Fred is averaging 21.6 ppg in 50 games played this season.  The former undrafted player is playing great.  A real star on a real contract.  He’s a clutch shooter.

CJ McCollum:  CJ is averaging 21.1 ppg in 40 games played this season.  He was the second best player in Portland and now he is the best player in New Orleans.  He is great enough to do it.. But the nagging injuries are not believed to really be gone. 

Tare Young:  Trae is averaging 27.8 ppg in 53 games played this season.  Trae is a star.  Trae is a volume shooter.  Trae needs a hand in the face to get up for it.  He won’t have a hand in the face during this challenge.  That will give him too much time to think about it.

I deliberately left off the shooting percentages.  Simple human nature is to think the game shooting percentages will matter here.  Not true!  Game action is entirely dependant on what position you play and if someone on your team is drawing the defense… .or maybe great at hitting you with an assist.  This contest is different.  This contest is about gym work.  This contest is about have you put in the work?... The most obvious jump in shooting skill this season is Desmond Bane… He may have shot this many shots against this short amount of time more than anyone in the league in private.  The work shows.

 

Our prediction for Saturday, February 19th is…   Desmond Bane.

The favorite (based on 3PT% this season) is Luke Kennard.  Luke Kennard is pure fire from deep and has won a few games for the Los Angeles Clippers almost single-handedly while Paul George and Kawhi Leonard have been out with injury.  The problem with Luke is he is a bunch scorer who seems to thrive under pressure of the 4th quarter..  The contest may be too friendly for Luke.  CJ McCollum is the head slapping no brainer for the casual fan… “that’s gotta be the best guy!”... nope.  McCollum is a great shooter that has suffered from injury this season and still does not have all the rust knocked off after his recent trade from the Portland Trail Blazers to the New Orleans Pelicans.  Trae Young is the Ice Tray… but he is a volume shooter in game action.  Trae Young misses a lot of shots.  The reason Desmond Bane should be your guy is because he has been a revelation since Dillon Brooks went down with injury for the Memphis Grizzlies.  There is no chance that a starting job is still waiting for Dillon.  Desmond has it and he is riding the good feeling of knowing it!  Everything's coming up Memphis this season!  Plant your $$ on Desmond and you will have the most likely chance at a big return!

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