by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Sep 10, 2021
Game time: 6:35 p.m. ET
Venue: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
Where to watch: MASN 2, AT&T SportsNet-PIT
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Nationals -150, Pirates +130
BetMGM: NL
Caesars: NL
Season record (entering Friday)
Nationals: 58-82 (last place, NL East)
Pirates: 50-90 (last place, NL Central)
Larry Ness is caught in a 3-day MLB slump (just 2-6) but this 38-year vet has not slumped very often. He's gone 159-116, +$27,417 with all plays since May 15 (4-month span) and checks in having earned a profit of $23,690 (at $100/unit) since Opening Day. His 3-game Friday card is highlighted by this 10* Division Game of the Month. Catch Larry’s and other plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.
Nationals - Pirates preview and analysis
Recent form
Nationals: 3-7 in last 10
Pirates: 3-7 in last 10
There’s no better palette cleanser on a Saturday than watching two bad baseball teams in September.
Clearly I know nothing about knowing what’s good food, but we can all agree that the Washington Nationals and Pittsburgh Pirates playing the second of a three-game series really is the type of world we strive for.
Not only are they two bad teams, but it’s a battle of two pitchers that will give up plenty. Patrick Corbin is expected to take the mound for Washington, while Wil Crowe goes for the Pirates.
Corbin has become the Nationals’ ace since trading Max Scherzer, and while he can’t be blamed for the Nationals falling off a cliff since winning the World Series in 2019, his 7-14 mark with a 6.14 ERA and WHIP of 1.46 has proven to be a rough go for the 32-year-old Corbin. This is what we call the bad stats on the ledger.
In time, the Nationals will get back to prominence, and Corbin will be a solid No. 2 or 3 in their rotation. Washington has alternated wins and losses in its last six games entering Friday (which included winning two of five against the New York Mets), but will return to Nationals Park on Monday against the Miami Marlins in the epic battle of dead last in the National League East.
The Nationals are coming off a 7-6 loss in 10 innings at the Atlanta Braves on Thursday, which ruined a rather solid start from Erick Fedde (6 IP, 4 ER, 7 K, 0 BB).
Crowe, the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates, is only 3-7 this season, but will throw first pitch Saturday being 1-5 at home with an ERA of 4.94. He only lasted three innings his last start Sunday against the Chicago Cubs, giving up seven runs in three innings.
Can you feel the excitement in the autumn air?
Prediction
Pick your poison with this one, but given the fact Corbin has plenty of reliable seasons under his belt, we feel comfortable going with Corbin in this one. Keep an eye on how much the momentum Washington can build with Josiah Gray making his first start on Friday, facing Steven Brault. Should Washington win that game, they’ll feel even better on Saturday. Nationals win 6-3.
Betting trends
The Nationals are 15-36 (-17.5 net games on the moneyline) as an underdog when the line is +100 to +150.
The Pirates are 7-4 at home when the line is -100 to -150.
Key injuries
Nationals: CF Gerardo Parra (10-day IL)
Pirates: C Henry Davis (oblique, 4-6 weeks)
Players to watch
Nationals: Washington star Juan Soto has hit well in the last month, batting .319 with six homers and 19 RBI.
Pirates: Pittsburgh star Bryan Reynolds continues a very solid season, batting .276 with 16 RBI in the last 26 games.
Projected lineup
Nationals:
Lane Thomas (R) CF
Alcides Escobar (R) SS
Juan Soto (L) RF
Josh Bell (S) 1B
Yadiel Hernandez (L) LF
Carter Kieboom (R) 3B
Keibert Ruiz (S) C
Luis Garcia (L) 2B
Patrick Corbin (L) P
Pirates:
Ke'Bryan Hayes (R) 3B
Yoshi Tsutsugo (L) RF
Bryan Reynolds (S) CF
Colin Moran (L) 1B
Ben Gamel (L) LF
Jacob Stallings (R) C
Cole Tucker (S) 2B
Kevin Newman (R) SS
Wil Crowe (R) P
Statistical leaders
Nationals:
Batting average: Juan Soto (.305)
Hits: Juan Soto (131)
Home runs: Juan Soto & Josh Bell (25)
RBI: Juan Soto (82)
Stolen bases: Juan Soto (9)
Wins: Patrick Corbin (7)
Saves: Kyle Finnegan (8)
ERA: Patrick Corbin (6.14)
Pirates:
Batting average: Bryan Reynolds (.298)
Hits: Bryan Reynolds (147)
Home runs: Bryan Reynolds (22)
RBI: Bryan Reynolds (81)
Stolen bases: Gregory Polanco (14)
Wins: JT Brubaker (5)
Saves: Richard Rodriguez (14)
ERA: N/A
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
