by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Sep 03, 2021
Game time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Venue: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
Where to watch: Bally Sports Midwest, Bally Sports Wisconsin
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Brewers -135, Cardinals +115
BetMGM: NL
Caesars: NL
Season record (entering Friday)
Cardinals: 68-64 (3rd place, NL Central)
Brewers: 82-53 (1st place, NL Central)
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Cardinals - Brewers preview and analysis
Recent form (entering Friday)
Cardinals: 6-4 in last 10
Brewers: 6-4 in last 10
The St. Louis Cardinals are building momentum at the right time and are within striking distance of the crowded National League Wild Card race.
St. Louis is hoping this weekend’s three-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers will continue that upward trajectory, but Saturday especially could be a perfect opportunity to pounce on that.
And if things go the way we predict them to be on Friday’s game, when the Cardinals start this series with Adam Wainwright against Freddy Peralta, it could be a fruitful weekend for St. Louis.
Kwang Hyun Kim will get the start on the mound for the Cardinals against Brewers starting pitcher Adrian Houser in what could be a prime spot for the 33-year-old rookie from South Korea.
The Cardinals are 5-3 in Kim’s last eight starts, but what can’t be ignored is he won five in a row before July 28. In each of those wins, Kim held opponents to five hits or less and allowed only three total runs. He’s started two of his last three appearances, allowing only three runs, but allowed just one on three hits in 4 IP against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Aug. 29.
On the year as a starter, Kim has a 6-6 record with a 3.23 ERA and a WHIP just under 1.20.
At least for the Brewers, a loss wouldn’t drastically alter their stance in the National League Central, but seeing how the Brewers are only 36-29 at home, they could use some wins in September to let their fans know they’re not wasting money on tickets.
It’s all on the Cardinals to build off that series victory against the Cincinnati Reds and catch up to them in the wild card standings. That would be an ideal set of circumstances before returning to Busch Stadium.
Prediction
There is some slight concern about the Cardinals’ batters reaching some form of consistency, but in this matchup, expect a strong pitching performance from Kim to keep Milwaukee’s bats at bay. Cardinals win in a close one.
Betting trends
The Cardinals are 9-4 (+5.2 net games on the money line) when Kim starts.
The Brewers are 60-39 (+1.2 net games) when favored at -110 or higher.
Key injuries
Cardinals: SP Carlos Martinez (60-day IL)
Brewers: 3B Eduardo Escobar (10-day IL)
Players to watch
Cardinals: We touched briefly on the Cardinals' offense needing some consistency. The name at the top of the list is Nolan Arenado. The All-Star has struggled greatly since the All-Star break, but particularly in the last 13 games entering Friday, Arenado is batting .212 with only two homers. St. Louis needs him to improve as Paul Goldschmidt
Brewers: Clean-up hitter Avisail Garcia hasn’t hit for much power as of late, hitting just three homers in the last 15 games entering Friday, to go with seven RBI. As Milwaukee heads toward the home stretch, it could use production from the No. 4 guy.
Projected lineup
Cardinals:
Tommy Edman (S) 2B
Paul Goldschmidt (R) 1B
Tyler O'Neill (R) LF
Nolan Arenado (R) 3B
Dylan Carlson (S) RF
Edmundo Sosa (R) SS
Harrison Bader (R) CF
Andrew Knizner (R) C
Kwang Hyun Kim (L) P
Brewers:
Kolten Wong (L) 2B
Luis Urias (R) SS
Christian Yelich (L) LF
Avisail Garcia (R) RF
Jace Peterson (L) 3B
Daniel Vogelbach (L) 1B
Jackie Bradley Jr. (L) CF
Luke Maile (R) C
Adrian Houser (R) P
Statistical leaders
Cardinals:
Batting average: Paul Goldschmidt (.287)
Hits: Paul Goldschmidt (144)
Home runs: Nolan Arenado (27)
RBI: Nolan Arenado (85)
Stolen bases: Tommy Edman (21)
Wins: Adam Wainwright (13)
Saves: Alex Reyes (29)
ERA: Adam Wainwright (2.97)
Brewers:
Batting average: Avisail Garcia (.267)
Hits: Avisail Garcia (110)
Home runs: Avisail Garcia (24)
RBI: Avisail Garcia (77)
Stolen bases: Lorenzo Cain (11)
Wins: Brent Suter (12)
Saves: Josh Hader (29)
ERA: Corbin Burnes (2.27)
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
