by James Q
Tuesday, Sep 21, 2021MLB Baseball: St Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/22/2021
Game Time: 7:40 pm ET, Wednesday, September 22nd, 2021
Venue: American Family Field, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Where to Watch: Bally Sports Wisconsin, Bally Sports Midwest
Opening MLB Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline: Brew -111, Cards -122 Over/Under: 7.5 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline: Brew -111, Cards -122; Over/Under: 7.5 runs
PointsBet: Moneyline: Brew -111, Cards -122; Over/Under: 7.5 runs
Season Record
Cardinals: 80-60, 2nd place, NL Central
Brewers: 91-59, 1st place NL Central
The Brewers are going to finish in first in the NL Central. They don’t have it locked up mathematically… the Cardinals and Brewers still have 13 games left to play. But the Brewers odds of going on a 9 game losing streak while the Cardinals become one of the hottest teams in MLB and rip off their own 9 game winning streak… it’s all moot. The ups and downs of a major league baseball game aside, these two teams are more likely to both go slightly above .500 on their way to the last regular season game. June and August was when the Cardinals should have made a push and they didn’t… or more accurately the Brewers didn’t falter. The current winning streak for the Cardinals is at 9 games… but so what? For the math to work the Brewers would have to get swept by the Cardinals in this four-game series and then again in next week’s three-game series. That won’t happen. Each game the Brewers get the win closes the door a little more on 1st place.
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Cardinals vs Brewers Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
The Cardinals are 9-1 over their last ten games. Logging 5 Overs and 5 Unders. They went 2-1 against the Cincinnati Reds, swept the New York Mets 3-0, Swept the San Diego Padres 3-0, and took the first game off the Brewers 1-0. They have been on fire. Creeping up on the Brewers in the National League Central… but the Brewers lead is too much to overcome. This recent play will most likely help the Cards' confidence heading into wild card positioning and playoff matchups… but it won’t get them first place.
The Brewers are 6-4 over their last ten games. Hitting 5 Overs and 5 Unders. They beat the Philadelphia Phillies 1-0, They swept the Cleveland Indians 3-0, got blanked by the Detroit Tigers 0-2, went 2-1 against the Chicago Cubs, and dropped game 1 to the Cardinals in this series. They are happily chugging along with their big lead, not burning out their pitching staff, not messing with the rotation. A series win against the Cardinals is simply not important.. They just need to get a couple of wins in the final six games against the Cardinals over the last 13 games in the season. The eleven game cushion they have was well earned and the Brewers will rest on it now.
Offensive Analysis
The Cardinals are 14th in team batting average, 24th in runs scored, 21st in home runs 172. They are not a top-flight hitting team. At 23rd in the league in RBIs, they are lucky to have as many wins as they do.
The Brewers are 26th in team batting average, 10th in runs scored 694, 17th in home runs 182… You may ask yourself? “ How are they in first place in a division with these remedial offensive number?”... The answer is the NL Central is a desperately soft division. No one from the NL Central will make the World Series this year or the next. They will put 2 teams into the playoffs, but they will get smacked by the NL West with the San Francisco Giants and the Los Angeles Dodgers… one of those teams will be the NL champ.
Defensive Analysis
The Cardinals are 14th in team ERA 4.01, 30th in strikeouts (last place) 1117, and 17th in WHIP 1.30. They are not even above average in BB ratio. These are the stats that make it possible to emphatically say they won’t catch the Brewers for first and they won’t last long in any postseason matchup.
The Brewers are 3rd in team ERA 3.40, 1st in strikeouts 1517, 3rd in WHIP 1.18. They have a strong group of pitchers who keep them alive despite the undercooked offense.
Astros vs Angels Prediction
Our prediction for Wednesday, September 22nd is… Brewers 6 - Cardinals 3
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MLB Betting Trends
When playing as a moneyline favorite with odds of -220 or shorter, Milwaukee has a 17-4 record.
Milwaukee was favored on the moneyline in its last 10 games, and finished 6-4 in those matchups.
In six games as the underdog in the last 10 matchups, St. Louis is 5-1.
The Cardinals have won 32 out of 72 games, or 44.4%, in which they have been the underdog.
Key Injuries
Cards: Jack Flaherty SP (shoulder) 10 day IL * Dakota Hudson SP Out for season
Brewers: Lorenzo Cain CF (hip) Day to Day * Brett Anderson SP (shoulder) 10 Day IL
Players to Watch
Cards: Right-hander Miles Mikolasd will take the mound… 1-2 4.50 ERA, 21 SO in 32 IP. 1.31 WHIP. Miles “old timey mustache” Mikolas is 33 years old with limited pro experience since his debut in 2012… he will get smashed.
Brew: Brett Anderson, another 33 year old, 4-8, 4.18 ERA, 56 SO in 88 IP. Clearly this will devolve into a bullpen game for both sides. He will get smashed also.
Notable Quotes
“Man, what a tremendous addition….Obviously, he's pitched tremendously well. Done a great job, made a few adjustments, but this guy's got such heart and competitive fire. It's really fun to watch him go out and compete….He's like John Wayne, you know. Just got that True Grit.” Cardinals manager, Mike Shildt about Jon Lester… during this winning streak.
“Overall, we haven’t done enough offensively,....It’s been a dry week except for maybe one or two good innings. We’re in a spot where our pitchers have to be darn near perfect.” -Brewers Gm Craig Counsell.
Starting Lineups
Cardinals:
T. Edman, 2B
P. Goldschmidt, 1B
T. O'Neill, LF
N. Arenado, 3B
D. Carlson, RF
Y. Molina, C
E. Sosa, SS
H. Bader, CF
Brewers:
K. Wong, 2B
W. Adames, SS
E. Escobar, 1B
A. Garcia, RF
O. Narvaez, C
L. Urias, 3B
J. Peterson, LF
T. Taylor, CF
Statistical Leaders
Cards:
Batting AVG: Pasul Goldschmidt .287
Home Runs: Nolan Arenado 33
RBI: Nolan Arenado 101
Wins: Adam Wainwright 16
Saves: Alex Reyes 29
Brewers:
Batting AVG: Avisail Garcia .270
OBP: Luis Urias .342
Wins: Brent Suter 12
Saves: Josh Hader
Holds: Devin Williams 23
Manager:
Cards: Mike Shildt
Brew: Craig Counsell
Weather Forecast
Cloudy, it’s Milwaukee. 63*, it’s Milwaukee, wind 22 mph, it’s Milwaukee, Big women, ya know.
James Q
About the Author:
James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.
