by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Aug 23, 2021
Game time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Venue: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
Where to watch: NBCS BA, SNY
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Giants -115, Mets -105
BetMGM: NL
FanDuel: NL
Season record
Giants: 80-44 (1st place, NL West)
Mets: 61-63 (3rd place, NL East)
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Giants - Mets preview and analysis
Recent form
Giants: 7-3 in last 10
Mets: 2-8 in last 10
Much like a true prizefighter, the San Francisco Giants were knocked down in the 10th round, but came back with a barrage in the championship rounds.
The Giants showed why they have the best record in baseball this past weekend, taking two of three over the Oakland Athletics on the road in a Bay Area battle. Now, the Giants have to take a cross-country trip to take on the New York Mets in a three-game series at Citi Field starting Tuesday.
Both teams are off Monday.
San Francisco became the first team to reach 80 wins this season with a 2-1 victory Sunday in the series finale. The Giants were held to four hits for the entire game, but the biggest came in the top of the eighth when pinch-hitter Donovan Solano hit a, two-out two-run home run to left field for the late lead and the eventual win. San Francisco got six solid innings of one-run ball from Logan Webb, who also had seven strikeouts.
Even though it wasn’t Oracle Park, the amount of Giants fans that made the trip to Oakland made it seem like a home game.
Coupled with the dramatic win Saturday that saw Lamonte Wade Jr. hit a two-run home run in the top of the ninth, the Giants find themselves with a 2.5-game lead on the Los Angeles Dodgers for first place in the National League West.
Sammy Long is expected to take the mound for the GIants in what will be his fifth start this season. The left-hander is 1-1 with a 5.72 ERA and has not won since June 20.
The Giants should consider sending the Mets a giant fruit basket for even winning one game against the Dodgers this weekend, ending their nine-game winning streak and providing some cushion for the Giants.
New York took the series finale 7-2 at Dodger Stadium on Sunday, sparked by the much-need return of Javier Baez. Following a stint on the 10-day injured list due to back spasms that caused him to miss 11 games, Baez returned to the lineup and went 2-for-4 with an RBI. J.D. Davis contributed with a 3-for-4 game with four RBI, including a two-run homer.
The Mets got enough off David Price (4 IP, 3 ER) and got plenty from impromptu ace Marcus Stroman (6 IP, six strikeouts) for the victory. Bad news for the Mets is they still find themselves seven games back of the scorching Atlanta Braves atop the National League East.
Tylor Megill is expected to take the mound for the Mets. He’s 1-2 this season with a 3.21 ERA and a WHIP of 1.16.
Offensive analysis
The Giants have continued their tear as one of the best hitting teams in the league. Their .245 average is good for 10th in the league, but Solano’s homer on Sunday put the Giants atop the league at 187. That’s normally not the blueprint for the Giants’ playoff success, but it won’t hurt come October. The Mets’ offense remains a hot mess. New York is fifth-lowest in the league in home runs (130) and their .234 collective batting average is also the fifth-worst mark in the entire league. The hope is Baez can improve in both of those categories, and if Francisco Lindor returns from the 10-day IL on Tuesday, that infield can reach its potential. But, no, it’s no surprise they don’t have a winning record.
Defensive analysis
But what always got the Giants to the dance was their pitching. The 3.29 collective ERA is second best in the league, trailing only the Dodgers. Kevin Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani and Webb form one of the most lethal starting trios in the league. On the backend, Johnny Cueto can be a formidable fourth starter on a good day. New York’s pitching has taken a hit outside of Stroman, but the bulk of its numbers come from Jacob deGrom, who will likely miss the rest of the season. The Mets are 10th in the league with a 3.77 ERA.
Mets - Giants pick
Baez will bring a spark, but not enough to alter the Giants' odds of winning this game, nor make the Mets a home favorite. Giants win 7-2.
Betting trends
The under has cashed in the Giants’ last six games against a right-handed pitcher.
New York is 2-9 in its last 11 against NL West opponents.
The Mets have lost seven of their last eight series openers.
Key injuries
Giants: SP Johnny Cueto (elbow, 10 day IL), 3B Evan Longoria (hand, COVID IL)
Mets: SP Jacob deGrom (elbow, 60-day IL), SS Francisco Lindor (oblique, 10-day IL)
Players to watch
Giants: Shortstop Brandon Crawford has been a hitting machine in August. At the start of the month, he was batting .291. Now, he’s up to .300 since going 25-for-72 (.347 batting average) to go with eight RBI.
Mets: As the only Mets player who can drive offense at the moment, star first baseman Pete Alonso has an eight-game hitting streak with eight RBI in that span.
Projected lineup
Giants:
LaMonte Wade Jr. (L) RF
Tommy La Stella (L) 2B
Kris Bryant (R) 3B
Brandon Belt (L) 1B
Brandon Crawford (L) SS
Mike Yastrzemski (L) CF
Curt Casali (R) C
Alex Dickerson (L) LF
Sammy Long (L) P
Mets:
Brandon Nimmo (L) CF
Pete Alonso (R) 1B
Javier Baez (R) SS
J.D. Davis (R) 3B
Brandon Drury (R) LF
Jonathan Villar (S) 2B
Kevin Pillar (R) RF
Patrick Mazeika (L) C
Tylor Megill (R) P
Statistical leaders
Giants:
Batting average: Brandon Crawford (.300)
Hits: Brandon Crawford (107)
Home runs: Kris Bryant (22)
RBI: Brandon Crawford (70)
Stolen bases: Brandon Crawford and Austin Slater (10)
Wins: Kevin Gausman (12)
Saves: Jake McGee (28)
ERA: Kevin Gausman (2.47)
Mets:
Batting average: Pete Alonso (.258)
Hits: Pete Alonso (107)
Home runs: Pete Alonso (28)
RBI: Pete Alonso (73)
Stolen bases: Jonathan Villar (10)
Wins: Marcus Stroman (9)
Saves: Edwin Diaz (25)
ERA: Marcus Stroman (2.85)
Managers
Giants: Gabe Kapler (4th season, 2nd with Giants)
Mets: Luis Rojas (2nd season)
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
