by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Sep 10, 2021
Game time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Venue: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
Where to watch: Bally Sports West, AT&T SportsNet-SW
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Astros -265, Angels +215
BetMGM: NL
Caesars: NL
Season record (entering Friday)
Angels: 69-71 (4th place, AL West)
Astros: 81-58 (1st place, AL West)
Larry Ness is caught in a 3-day MLB slump (just 2-6) but this 38-year vet has not slumped very often. He's gone 159-116, +$27,417 with all plays since May 15 (4-month span) and checks in having earned a profit of $23,690 (at $100/unit) since Opening Day. His 3-game Friday card is highlighted by this 10* Division Game of the Month. Catch Larry’s and other plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.
Angels - Astros preview and analysis
Recent form
Angels: 6-4 in last 10
Astros: 4-6 in last 10
The Houston Astros have evaded a few bullets to find themselves still in good standing in the American League West.
Just when it seemed like the Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics were going to make a push worthy of September greatness, their own slip-ups have paved way for Houston to add some cushion atop the division standings.
After the Astros took two of three over the Mariners, things are lining up nicely for the former world champs. Game 2 of their three-game series against the Los Angeles Angels is on Saturday, but this series is a springboard for what’s to come. The Astros play the Angels (three), the Texas Rangers (four), the Arizona Diamondbacks (three) and the Angels again (three) over the course of the next two weeks.
Barring any drastic falling-off-a-cliff action, the Astros are going to cruise toward another division title.
But alas, the Astros are only tasked with who’s in front of them. And while Houston deals with what to do surrounding Shohei Ohtani -- on the mound (Friday) and at the plate -- the Astros will send 24-year-old Luis Garcia to the bump to follow Framber Valdez.
Garcia has been stellar in his first full season as a starter, going 10-6 with a 3.29 ERA and establishing himself as a reliable starter when the postseason rolls around. His last six starts have been better; he’s gone 3-0 in his last six starts, going at least five innings in each starts, with a 2.70 ERA and 34 strikeouts to only eight walks. He’s held opponents to a .227 batting average.
Garcia isn’t quite there yet with Valdez, Zack Greinke and Lance McCullers Jr., but having this kid available as a No. 3 or No. 4 is dangerous for any offense in the American League.
The Angels are coming off a split against the San Diego Padres in their two-game series. The Padres, who can’t figure out whether or not they’ll actually be a threat to the Los Angeles Dodgers in a potential wild card game, won 8-5 on Wednesday; the Angels got a day off to head to Houston.
Ohtani will go on the mound Friday, but this game is all about what he can do with the bat. The slugging star is seven homers away from 50. In a year without Mike Trout or Anthony Rendon to excite the crowd at Angel Stadium, Ohtani has delivered and then some. He’s batting .217 since Aug. 10, but the friendly folks in Anaheim couldn’t care less. He’s hitting bombs and making people excited.
That’s likely not enough to win some baseball games to end the season, but underdog stories have generated buzz before. It’s not happening in this matchup, though.
Prediction
Should expect more of the same when it comes to the Astros at home. They’ve had a couple of slip-ups at home against inferior teams (Kansas City comes to mind), but expect the Astros to take care of business with their star pitcher on the mound. Astros win 7-2.
Betting trends
The Angels are 3-5 this season (+1.2 net games on the moneyline) when an underdog between +175 and +250.
The Astros are 18-9 (-4.9 net games) when favored by -200 or more.
Players to watch
Angels: If the Angels have any chance of winning, David Fletcher needs to start hitting the ball. He enters Friday having gone five games without a hit. The utility man has been the only other source of offense outside of Ohtani.
Astros: It’s still weird seeing Jose Altuve hit below .300 for a season, but he’s been consistent, at least. His last 18 games, Altuve has hit .278 despite only five RBI.
Projected lineup
Angels:
David Fletcher (R) 2B
Shohei Ohtani (L) DH
Jack Mayfield (R) 3B
Jared Walsh (L) 1B
Jo Adell (R) LF
Brandon Marsh (L) CF
Max Stassi (R) C
Luis Rengifo (S) SS
Juan Lagares (R) RF
Astros:
Jose Altuve (R) 2B
Michael Brantley (L) LF
Yuli Gurriel (R) 1B
Yordan Alvarez (L) DH
Carlos Correa (R) SS
Kyle Tucker (L) RF
Jake Meyers (R) CF
Marwin Gonzalez (S) 3B
Martin Maldonado (R) C
Probable starting pitchers: Jose Suarez (LAA) vs. Luis Garcia (HOU)
Statistical leaders
Angels:
Batting average: David Fletcher (.282)
Hits: David Fletcher (154)
Home runs: Shohei Ohtani (43)
RBI: Shohei Ohtani (93)
Stolen bases:
Wins: Shohei Ohtani (9)
Saves: Raisel Iglesias (30)
ERA: Shohei Ohtani (2.97)
Astros:
Batting average: Michael Brantley (.315)
Hits: Yuli Gurriel (142)
Home runs: Yordan Alvarez (28)
RBI: Yordan Alvarez (90)
Stolen bases: Kyle Tucker (12)
Wins: Zack Greinke (11)
Saves: Ryan Pressly (23)
ERA: Zack Greinke (3.66)
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
