by Chuck Sommers
Saturday, Sep 11, 2021
Game time: 2:15 p.m. ET
Venue: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
Where to watch: Bally Sports Ohio, Bally Sports Midwest
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Reds -130, Cardinals +110
BetMGM: NL
Caesars: NL
Season record (entering Saturday)
Reds: 75-67 (2nd place, NL Central)
Cardinals: 71-69 (3rd place, NL Central)
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Reds - Cardinals preview and analysis
Recent form
Reds: 4-6 in last 10
Cardinals: 4-6 in last 10
The Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals will wrap up their three-game series on Sunday in St. Louis, as the Reds continue to push in the National League Wild Card race.
Cincinnati is tied with the San Diego Padres for the second wild-card spot now that the Reds have lost eight of 12 heading into Saturday’s middle matchup with the Cardinals.
The Reds took the series opener 4-2 on Friday night. Top prospect Jose Barrero drove in the go-ahead run in the top of the ninth, and Delino DeShield added an RBI for insurance for the Reds’ fourth win since Aug. 27.
Eugenio Suarez went 2-for-3 with an RBI, and Joey Votto added the other RBI on a 1-for-3 night to pace the Reds.
Reds starter Tyler Mahle has had a solid season (11-5, 3.73 ERA), but he’s made his money on the road. Mahle improved to 7-2 away from Great American Ball Park with a 1.97 ERA and 102 of his 188 strikeouts.
Sonny Gray will take the mound for the Reds on Sunday. The veteran right-hander is 7-6 with a 3.88 ERA and a WHIP of 1.22 and he will follow Luis Castillo pitching on Saturday.
The Cardinals are still in the fight for the wild card, but need some wins in the process in order to make that goal attainable. Entering Saturday, the Cardinals find themselves trailing the Reds and Padres by three games for that second spot. The Philadelphia Phillies are a half-game back of the Cardinals in that spot.
The Cardinals’ offense couldn’t get enough going despite a lengthy outing from starter Jon Lester (7 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 4 BB) despite giving up those two homers. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado were both hitless, but Yadier Molina hit a two-run homer to tie it in the bottom of the fourth.
J.A. Happ is expected to take the mound following Miles Mikolas’ outing on Saturday. The veteran is 8-8 with a 6.24 ERA this season.
Prediction
The Reds offense has been hit-or-miss the past couple of weeks, but expect the hitters to make a statement on Sunday. Cincinnati knows it can gain some ground on the Padres as they battle the Dodgers, and will likely do that with an effective Gray on the bump. Reds win 7-3.
Betting trends
The Reds are 5-3 in Gray’s starts when the team is favored between -100 and -150.
The Cardinals are 36-33 when the line is between +125 and -125 for them.
Key injuries
Reds: RF Jesse Winker (ribs)
Cardinals: SP Jack Flaherty (shoulder)
Players to watch
Reds: Joey Votto’s renaissance season continued with his 30th homer on Friday, but the Reds’ star needs to get going at the plate if Cincy wants to make a playoff run. Votto is batting only .225 in the last 23 games.
Cardinals: Paul Goldschmidt continues his hot stretch over the last 15 games, batting .315 with five homers and 11 RBI. His on-base percentage is also at a staggering .403.
Projected lineup
Reds:
Jonathan India (R) 2B
Max Schrock (L) LF
Nick Castellanos (R) RF
Joey Votto (L) 1B
Tyler Naquin (L) CF
Mike Moustakas (L) 3B
Jose Barrero (R) SS
Tucker Barnhart (L) C
Sonny Gray (R) P
Cardinals:
Tommy Edman (S) 2B
Paul Goldschmidt (R) 1B
Tyler O'Neill (R) LF
Nolan Arenado (R) 3B
Yadier Molina (R) C
Dylan Carlson (S) RF
Paul DeJong (R) SS
Harrison Bader (R) CF
J.A. Happ (L) P
Statistical leaders
Reds:
Batting average: Nick Castellanos (.317)
Hits: Nick Castellanos (146)
Home runs: Joey Votto (30)
RBI: Joey Votto (87)
Stolen bases: Jonathan India (9)
Wins: Wade Miley (12)
Saves: Mychal Givens (7)
ERA: Wade Miley (2.89)
Cardinals:
Batting average: Paul Goldschmidt (.284)
Hits: Paul Goldschmidt (150)
Home runs: Nolan Arenado (29)
RBI: Nolan Arenado (91)
Stolen bases: Tommy Edman (24)
Wins: Adam Wainwright (15)
Saves: Alex Reyes (29)
ERA: Adam Wainwright (2.98)
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
