Game Time: 6:30 PM  ET, Tuesday, February 23rd, 2022

Venue: Colonial Life Arena, Columbia, South Carolina

Where to Watch:  SEC Network

 

DraftKings Sportsbook:  NL

Caesars:  Spread: 

VegasInsider:  Spread: 

WynnBet: Spread: NL 

Opening Line: Bulldogs -2.5; O/U 139.5

Bulldogs: 7-7 in conference, 16-11 overall (SEC)

Gamecocks: 7-7 in conference, 16-10 overall (SEC)

An SEC matchup of actual equals.  Not winners.  Not conference title contenders.  Just .500 equals.  A middle of the pack battle that will create one team that is above .500 and one team that is below .500.  These types of battles can be very close.  They can get drawn out.  College basketball is such an amazing sport because teams that have something to play for give it their all!  This game decides success or failure for both squads.. At least for now.  The point spread in these matchups will be entirely dependent on the numerical marks that are already in place… so before you put some cash down… let’s examine the numbers.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs have won 4 of their last ten games.  The SEC has handed them the business this season.  The Alabama Crimson Tide, the LSU Tigers, the Tennessee Volunteers, and the Arkansas Razorbacks put the Bulldogs on a four game losing streak between February 5th and February 16th.  Some of those teams are good… some of those teams are bad.  It doesn’t matter to Mississippi State because the Bulldogs are just treading water… not good enough to compete for the conference or get a tournament invite.  During the 10 game stretch Mississippi State went 6-4 ATS.  The Gamecocks leading scorer Iverson Molinar is named after an all-time great… Iverson averages 18.3 ppg and 3.8 apg… at 6’3 the guard is capable and needs a bit more support.  Big Man 6’9 Forward Garrison Brooks came over after 4 seasons with North Carolina to pull down 11.3 ppg and 6.9 rebounds per game.  He is a good player, but his free throw percentage is unforgivable… 68.7% is the best mark he has risen to after 5 YEARS of college hoops… when the Basketball Gods ask how hard you are working?... What is your answer Mr Brooks?

The South Carolina Gamecocks have won 6 of their last ten games to get to the exact same place in the standings the Bulldogs are at.  The Gamecocks went 7-3 ATS during that stretch which makes them a very fine betting opportunity… add that to the fact that they also went 8 Overs and 2 Unders during that stretch and there were some fine parlay bets that hit… if only we had known.  The reason no one knew is the Gamecocks are a below average shooting team that has an average defense.  Where the team sort of excels is rebounds and blocks.  Block leader AJ Wilson gets just one block a game… that leaves 3.8 blocks per game for everyone else on the court.  It is truly a team effort to get in shooters faces from the opposite team… the fact that they have an average defense implies they simply are no good in transition or closing against the open shooters.  Leading scorer 6’4 guard Erik Stevenson only gets 11.4 ppg with 2.6 apg… that also means the scoring is a team effort.  The identity of this team is TEAM.  The results are .500 in conference.  This team only needs a few good shooters to hit the player transfer portal to make big things happen… maybe a JC player that can play two-ways.  As it stands now… they play well as a team they just need more of that.

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Mississippi State is 16-11 on the season, but 14-12-1 ATS.  They have logged 14 Overs and 13 Unders.  They are a dismal 1-7 in road games.

South Carolina is 16-10 on the season, but 14-11 ATS.  They have notched 12 Overs and 13 Unders.  They are 10-4 in home games… a real home court advantage.

Miss State is 155th in scoring with 72 ppg, 103rd in rebounds with 33.6 per game, and 150th in AST/TO 1.1.  They are 72nd in FG%, but 300th in 3PT% and 144th in FT%.  The focus is defense with a ranking of 94th while allowing 66.1 ppg.

South Carolina is 161st in scoring with 71.8 ppg, 68th in rebounds with 34.5 per game, and 261st in AST/TO ratio with 0.9.  On defense they rank 201st while allowing 69.5 ppg.  They really need ball control to be a good team. 0.9 AST/TO ratio is not worth showing up for the game.  They are so TEAM oriented that some ball control would make all the difference.

Our prediction for Wednesday, February 23rd is… Miss St 74 - SCAR 62

These two teams played each other before and Mississippi State got the win!  There has been no change in the rosters or stats for the most part.  So, with a good point spread the bet has to go on Miss State.  And yes, their road and home game records apply… but most of that was built through who they played.  In head up matches the bet goes to Miss State.

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Mississippi State is 170-132 ATS when playing a good team since 1997.

Mississippi State is 20-9 ATS after 1 or more consecutive UNDERS the last 2 seasons.

Mississippi State is 10 Over and 3 Under after playing 2 consecutive games as the favorite this season.

Miss State: R. Watts (elbow) Out ** Kyle Murphy (hand) Out for season.

SCAR: F. Cooper Jr (undisclosed) Out indefinitely

Miss State: Iverson Molinar, Cam Carter, Garrison Brooks, D.J. Jeffries, Tolu Smith

SCAR: James Reese V, Jermsaine Cousinard, Erik Stevenson, Wildens Leveque, Keyshawn Bryant

MIss State

Points: Iverson Molinar 18.3

Assists: Iverson Molinar 3.8

Rebounds: Garrison Brooks 6.9

Steals: Shakeel Moore 1.6

Blocks: Garrison Brooks 0.9

SCAR

Points: Erik Stevenson 11.4

Assists: Jermaine Cousinard 2.9

Rebounds: Wildens Leveque 5.1

Steals: Jermaine Cousinard 1.1

Blocks: AJ Wilson 1.0  

Mississippi State: Ben Howland

South Carolina: Frank Martin