by Rod Pearson
Thursday, Oct 10, 2024
Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, October 12, 2024
Venue: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
Where to Watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Ole Miss -3, LSU +3; Over/Under: 62 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Ole Miss -3.5, LSU +3.5; Over/Under: 62 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Ole Miss -3, LSU +3; Over/Under: 62.5 points
Season Record
Mississippi Rebels: 5-1 (1-1) (6th place, SEC)
LSU Tigers: 4-1 (1-0) (4th place, SEC)
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Recent Form
Mississippi Rebels: won their last game on the road against the South Carolina Gamecocks 27-3.
LSU Tigers: won their last game at home against the South Alabama Jaguars 42-10.
Mississippi Rebels vs LSU Tigers Preview and Analysis
Ole Miss is entering this game with a 5-1 record overall and they have a 1-1 record in their conference games too. They are 3-1 in their home games, 2-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against South Carolina 27-3. Jaxson Dart was the starting QB and he completed 14/27 passes for 285 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Henry Parrish Jr. led the team in rushing yards with 81 and 1 TD. Antwane Wells Jr. led the receivers with 97 receiving yards on 3 receptions. TJ Dottery led the defense in that game with 11 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Walter Nolen and Jared Ivey each led the defense in sacks with 2. Trey Amos came away with the only interception for them in that one.
LSU is entering this game with a 4-1 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against South Alabama 42-10. Garrett Nussmeier was the starting QB and he completed 26/39 passes for 409 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Caden Durham led the team in rushing yards with 128 and 1 TD. Kyren Lacy led the receivers with 107 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Greg Penn III led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 7 assisted tackles while Da'Shawn Womack, Sai'vion Jones, Jardin Gilbert, Gabriel Reliford, Gio Paez, and Paris Shand each led the defense in sacks with 0.5. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Mississippi vs LSU Prediction
The current betting odds have LSU listed as a 3 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. LSU has looked good in their games this season with their 4-1 record overall and their 1-0 conference record. They lost their season opener, but they have won 4 games in a row since then and have looked a lot better in each game. Now they are coming off their bye week too so they have had extra time to prepare for this game. Meanwhile, Ole Miss has looked really good in their games this season with their 5-1 record overall, but they are 1-1 in their conference games with a loss in the SEC already. They lost to a weaker Kentucky team that has struggled on offense and Ole Miss has struggled more against the better defensive teams they have faced. They only scored 17 points at home in their loss to Kentucky and they are coming off a game which they dominated but still only scored 27 points in their win over South Carolina. LSU has been improving their defense so they are going to be able to slow down this Ole Miss offense, and Ole Miss hasn't really been known for their good defense either so this LSU offense is going to find ways to move the ball and put points on the board. There is a good chance that this ends up being a really tight back and forth game so it is best to take the points with the home team here in what could be a game decided by a field goal either way. The best way to place a bet here is on LSU to cover the spread in this game.
Mississippi LSU Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 12, 2024 (7:30 pm ET start time) is LSU 42 Ole Miss 38.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Mississippi Rebels: 2-5 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. 2-5 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 yards/game or more. 6-3 OVER versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 yards/play or more. 7-3 1H OVER off a win against a conference rival. 8-1 1H OVER versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 yards/play or more.
LSU Tigers: 12-4 ATS in home lined games. 6-2 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 rushing yards/carry or more. 6-2 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 200 rushing yards/game or more. 22-10 OVER in all lined games. 11-6 OVER in home lined games. 14-4 OVER against conference opponents. 12-3 OVER after scoring 37 points or more last game.
Key Injuries
Mississippi Rebels: I. Hartrup (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Price (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. James (OL) Questionable - Hand. L. Diggs (RB) Out - Knee.
LSU Tigers: D. Womack (DE) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Roberts (OL) Questionable - Undisclosed. P. Malbrue (DE) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Jackson (DE) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Ibieta (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Hilton (WR) Questionable - Ankle. J. Allen (SAF) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Guillory (DT) Out - Achilles. J. Emery (RB) Out - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“That says a lot about who he is.” - Lane Kiffin on JJ Pegues after his team’s win against South Carolina in their last game.
“Clearly we did some great things offensively tonight. Over 660 yards of total offense. Characterize it any way you want but Nussmeier, the receivers, Durham — all those guys were high performers tonight.” - Brian Kelly after his team’s win against South Alabama in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Mississippi Rebels
WR Wells Jr., Antwane
WR Harris, Tre
WR Lee, Cayden
TE Prieskorn, Caden
QB Dart, Jaxson
RB Parrish Jr., Henry
LSU Tigers
WR Hilton Jr., Chris
WR Daniels, CJ
WR Lacy, Kyren
TE Taylor, Mason
QB Nussmeier, Garrett
RB Williams, Josh
Statistical Leaders
Mississippi Rebels
Passing: J. Dart (2100)
Rushing: H. Parrish (570)
Receiving: T. Harris (885)
Touchdowns: H. Parrish (9)
LSU Tigers
Passing: G. Nussmeier (1656)
Rushing: C. Durham (244)
Receiving: A. Anderson (371)
Touchdowns: K. Lacy (5)
Coaches:
Mississippi Rebels: Lane Kiffin (5th season)
LSU Tigers: Brian Kelly (3rd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
