Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 4/7/2022

Game time: 2:20 p.m. ET

Venue: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL

Where to watch: Bally Sports Wisconsin, MLB Network

DraftKings: Brewers -150, Cubs +130

BetMGM: Brewers -160, Cubs +130

Caesars: Brewers -161, Cubs +140

Brewers: 95-67 (1st place, NL Central -- lost NLDS vs. Braves)

Cubs: 71-91 (4th place, NL Central)

The Milwaukee Brewers were my favorite group last year. I loved everything about them. The dominant pitching, the timely hitting, the clutch-time power hitting that came out of nowhere. And then it all came to a crashing thud in the NLDS at the hands of the eventual World Series champion Atlanta Braves.

So the Brewers return pretty much everyone from last year’s NL Central-winning team, including reigning NL CY Young winner Corbin Burnes, and they begin a new season against the Chicago Cubs in Wrigley Field on Thursday.

There is no denying that the Brewers might have the best rotation in baseball. Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta are the best 1-2-3 in baseball, and were the biggest reasons that the Brewers were so good last year. Burnes, especially, went 11-5 with a 2.43 ERA in the fewest innings for a Cy Young winner since Blake Snell in 2018.

“I feel like it’s a trap question,” Woodruff said. “You know, in my mind I think we are. I think we’ve proven that over the past couple of years. It’s not really talked about, I guess, nationally, in the media. But that’s kind of what has fueled us to do our own thing and worry about ourselves in here. I think that’s what makes us good.”

This rotation is good. There’s no denying how good they are. Even when the Brewers get to the back end with Josh Hader and Devin Williams anchoring the bullpen.

But as you can guess, the pitching is not the problem with the Brewers. The batting took a huge dip when it mattered most, and the one most responsible for that is the bat of former MVP Christian Yelich, who hit .248 a year ago and was relied upon to carry the batting order in Milwaukee. Willy Adames led last year’s group with .285 and 20 home runs with Kolten Wong behind him at .272.

In the end, it needs to be a much better effort from the Milwaukee offense if they want to make a run. The Brewers were one win away from the World Series a few years ago because of the likes of Yelich and others. In order to get back that close again, they’ll need to start driving in more runs for contact and the like.

As for the Cubs, it’s just a miracle that’s needed from this group. Poor David Ross has to deal with this absurd rebuild already. Kyle Hendricks returns as the ace for the Cubs after being the only one that was relied upon for consistent growth last season.

This time, it could be a long 162 games for Chicago. Forget everything that we knew of when the Cubs traded Kris Bryant and started the tear-down of what we knew of this team that just won the World Series six years ago. Even though it might not look like it, the goals remain adamant.

"Winning. Making the playoffs. Getting to the World Series," Ross said at the start of Spring Training. "We're never going to stop working towards that. That's what we've established here. That's the expectations that I come with. Whether the outside people feel like we're talented enough or not, we're going to work to try to prepare to win the World Series."

The Cubs are re-tooling after adding Marcus Stroman to be a perfect No. 2 and adding Japanese star Seiya Suzuki to the batting order. If they can get Patrick Wisdom and Frank Schwindel to pick up where they left off last season, Chicago is going to be in good shape. But it won’t be this year. We’ll have to wait until next season for things to transpire.

As much as Cubs fans want to see this lineup produce from Day 1 and give them something to cheer about, it’s another situation in its entirety to go against Burnes and that pitching staff in general. I can’t fully get on board with Chicago’s lineup just yet because I’m not entirely sure where they are in terms of consistency. Until then, I go with the group I can believe in. Brewers win 6-2

The Brewers are 91-66 (-10.4 net games on money line) as a favorite of -110 or higher the last three years.

The Brewers are 66-50 (-1.5 net games ML) against division opponents the past three seasons.

The Brewers are 23-10 (+7.4 net games) as a favorite of -110 or higher when Burnes starts the last three seasons.

The Cubs are 6-19 (-10 net games ML) as a home dog of +125 or more the last three seasons.

Brewers:
Lorenzo Cain (R) CF
Willy Adames (R) SS
Keston Hiura (R) 1B
Jace Peterson (L) 3B
Mike Brosseau (R) 2B
Brent Diaz (R) C
Jackson Chourio (R) LF
Jace Avina (R) RF
Quinton Low (L) DH

Cubs:
Jason Heyward (L) CF
Ian Happ (R) LF
Patrick Wisdom (R) 3B
Frank Schwindel (L) 1B
Seiya Suzuki (R) RF
Nick Madrigal (S) 2B
Wilson Contreras (R) C
Luis Vazquez (R) SS
Cole Roederer (L) DH

Batting average: Avisail Garcia -- .262

Hits: Luis Urias -- 122

Home runs: Avisail Garcia -- 29

RBI: Avisail Garcia -- 86

Wins: Brent Suter -- 12

Saves: Josh Hader -- 34

ERA: Corbin Burnes -- 2.43

Batting average: Ian Happ -- .226

Hits: Ian Happ -- 105

Home runs: Ian Happ -- 25

RBI: Ian Happ -- 66

Wins: Kyle Hendricks -- 14

Saves: Craig Kimbrel -- 23

ERA: Kyle Hendricks -- 4.77