Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 09/28/2023

Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Thursday, September 28, 2023

Venue:  Houchens Industries L. T. Smith Stadium, Bowling Green, KY

Where to Watch:  CBS Sports

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  MTSU +6.5, WKU -6.5; Over/Under:  60.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  MTSU +7, WKU -7; Over/Under:  60.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  MTSU +7, WKU -7; Over/Under:  60.5 points

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders:  1-3 (0-0) (7th place, C-USA)

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers:  2-2 (0-0) (5th place, C-USA)

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Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders:  lost their last game at home against the Colorado State Rams 31-23.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers:  lost their last game on the road against the Troy Trojans 27-24.

Middle Tennessee State is entering this game with a 1-3 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 1-1 in their home games, 0-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against Colorado State 31-23. Nicholas Vattiato was the starting QB and he completed 30/41 passes for 279 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Nicholas Vattiato led the team in rushing yards with 47 and 1 TD. Holden Willis led the receivers with 118 receiving yards on 9 receptions and 1 TD. Tra Fluellen led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while DeArre McDonald led the defense in sacks with 1. Deonte Stanley came away with the only interception for them in that game.

 

 

 

Western Kentucky is entering this game with a 2-2 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 0-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Troy 27-24. Austin Reed was the starting QB and he completed 23/39 passes for 268 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. KD Hutchinson led the team in rushing yards with 10 and 1 TD. Malachi Corley led the receivers with 112 receiving yards on 9 receptions and 1 TD. Deante McCray led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while Deante McCray led the defense in sacks with 2. No one on the defense came away with an interception in that game.

The current betting odds have Western Kentucky listed as a 6.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Western Kentucky is 2-2 this season and they haven't looked great in their games but they will be looking to bounce back after a close loss last week. They lost on the road to Troy by 3 points but now they are back at home for the start of their conference play and they are getting a bad Middle Tennessee State team to beat up. MTSU hasn't looked good in their games at all. They are 1-3 this season and just blew an easy game at home against Colorado State which they had the lead in. MTSU doesn't have a good team this year and their offense has been struggling to put up points in their games. Western Kentucky doesn't have a great defense but they also have an offense that can put up a ton of points and being at home in this 1st conference game this season, they are going to pull away in this game and when they do MTSU won't have the offense to come back in the game. The best way to place a bet here is on Western Kentucky to cover the spread in this game.

Middle Tennessee Western Kentucky Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Thursday, September 28, 2023 (7:30 pm ET start time) is WKU 38 MTSU 23.

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Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: 6-10 ATS in road games. 6-11 ATS in the first half of the season. 5-1 OVER as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points. 7-3 OVER after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. 5-1 OVER after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: 8-1 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63. 9-5 ATS in home games. 12-5 ATS against conference opponents. 6-1 OVER after playing 2 straight non-conference games. 20-11 OVER after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders:  None.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers:  M. Stepp (RB) Ques Thurs - Undisclosed. M. Barry (WR) Ques Thurs - Undisclosed. B. Smith (WR) Ques Thurs - Undisclosed. T. Borland (TE) Ques Thurs - Arm. D. Smith (WR) Ques Thurs - Foot. M. Mathison (WR) Out indefinitely - Hip.

"Do the little things and understand how every play, you never know what play is going to make the difference in the game. It may be the first play of the game, it may be the last play of the game. You've got to play that play with exhaustion, you've got to play until you ain't got anything left in the tank and you find a way to do it again on the next play." - Rick Stockstill after his team’s loss against CSU in their last game. 

"I thought, first of all, our team battled extremely hard. I thought our defense really, really – when we needed to create turnovers, when we needed to stop them – they came through for us. It gave our offense a lot of opportunities. We went against a really good defense today in Troy and I knew it was going to be an uphill battle for us offensively." - Tyson Helton after his team’s loss against Troy in their last game.

WR Sherman, Javonte

WR England-Chisolm, DJ 

WR Metcalf, Elijah 

WR Willis, Holden 

QB Vattiato, Nicholas 

RB Peasant, Frank

WR Burt Jr., Craig  

WR Smith, Blue

WR Corley, Malachi 

WR Smith, Dalvin 

TE Helms, River 

QB Reed, Austin 

RB Ervin-Poindexter, Davion 

Passing: N. Vattiato (911)

Rushing: J. Credle (188)

Receiving: E. Metcalf (192)

Touchdowns: J. Middlebrook (2)

Passing: A. Reed (1064)

Rushing: D. Ervin-Poindexter (101)

Receiving: M. Corley (255)

Touchdowns: A. Reed (2)

Coaches:

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: Rick Stockstill (18th season)

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: Tyson Helton (5th season)