Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, Preview and Odds - 02/29/2024

Game Time: 10:00 pm ET, Thursday, February 29, 2024

Venue:  Ball Arena, Denver, CO

Where to Watch:  TNT, MAX

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Heat +5.5, Nuggets -5.5; Over/Under:  219.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Heat +5.5, Nuggets -5.5; Over/Under:  219.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Heat +5.5, Nuggets -5.5; Over/Under:  219.5 points

Miami Heat:  33-25 (1st place, Southeast Division)

Denver Nuggets:  39-19 (3rd place, Northwest Division)

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Miami Heat:  8-2 last 10

Denver Nuggets:  6-4 last 10

The Heat are entering this game with a 33-25 record overall and they are 18-12 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 5 game winning streak with wins coming against the Milwaukee Bucks, the Philadelphia 76ers, the New Orleans Pelicans, the Sacramento Kings, and the Portland Trail Blazers in their last game. Jimmy Butler led the team in points in that game with 22 while Terry Rozier was next on the team with 19 points. Jimmy Butler led the team in assists in that game with 9 while Bam Adebayo led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 52.9% from the field, 53.8% from 3-point range, and 69.2% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 110.6 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.9 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 29-28-1 this season and their O/U record is 22-36.

The Nuggets are entering this game with a 39-19 record overall and they are 22-5 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 3 game winning streak with wins coming against the Washington Wizards, the Portland Trail Blazers, and the Golden State Warriors in their last game, but this is also the 2nd game of a back-to-back for them with their game against the Sacramento Kings still to be played on Wednesday night. In their game against the Warriors, Nikola Jokić led the team in points in that game with 32 while Jamal Murray was next on the team with 27 points. Nikola Jokić led the team in assists in that game with 16 while Nikola Jokić led the team in rebounds with 16. They were 48.9% from the field, 34.4% from 3-point range, and 84.6% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 114.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 110.7 PPG against them. The Nuggets have an ATS record of 25-31-2 this season and their O/U record is 22-36.

The current betting odds have the Heat listed as a 5.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Heat have looked good in their games this season with their 33-25 record overall which has them surging up the standings in the East right now and in a playoff spot. They have been a good road team this year with their 18-12 road record and they have also looked really good in their games lately with their 8-2 record in their last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have also looked really good in their games this season with their 39-19 record overall which has them right near the top of the West with one of the best records in the entire NBA. They have also looked great on their home court all year with their 22-5 home record. The Nuggets have also been gaining some momentum in their games lately with 3 wins in a row now, but they haven't been that consistent in their games lately with their 6-4 record over their last 10 games. The Nuggets are also in a bad situation here since they are playing this game on a back-to-back with a game against a tough Kings opponent the night before. The Heat have been the hotter team coming into this one but they also have a lot of momentum of their own right now with 5 wins in a row and they have some good wins during this streak too. The Heat are playing like a team that could challenge the Nuggets in this situation and potentially pull off an upset win too, but even with a loss they will put up a good fight here to keep this one close. The best way to place a bet here is on the Heat to cover the spread in this game. 

Heat Nuggets Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Thursday, February 29, 2024 (10:00 pm ET start time) is Heat 111 Nuggets 107.

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Miami Heat: 26-17 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less. 11-6 ATS off a road win. 39-25 ATS after allowing 100 points or less. 21-9 UNDER in road games. 8-2 UNDER after allowing 100 points or less. 22-10 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive wins.

Denver Nuggets: 11-21 ATS after 4 or more consecutive wins. 0-6 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games. 16-24 ATS after allowing 100 points or less. 20-12 UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 22-13 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive unders. 8-3 UNDER after a blowout win by 15 points or more.

Miami Heat:  T. Herro (SG) Ques Thurs - Knee. O. Robinson (C) Ques Thurs - Back. T. Bryant (C) Elig Sat - Suspension. J. Richardson (SG) Early March - Shoulder. D. Smith (SG) out for season - Knee.

Denver Nuggets:  H. Tyson (SF) Out indefinitely - Finger. V. Cancar (SF) Out indefinitely - Knee.

“He has an ability to break the defense down, or at least get a defense to overreact. When you have multiple guys who are weapons like that, it’s good for your offense. I also really respect how much time he put into this to be able to get back and fast-track this.” - Erik Spoelstra after his team’s win against the Trail Blazers in their game on Tuesday.

“I felt for the first quarter and a half they were the aggressor, they had us on our heels and we were reacting to everything they did. For us to close out 14-0 and then to start the third 14-4, I think we kind of flipped the switch and we became the aggressor on both ends and stopped thinking and started playing with an attack mindset and an aggressive mindset, and I think that’s when we’re at our best.” - Michael Malone after his team’s win against the Warriors in their game on Sunday.

PG Terry Rozier

SG Tyler Herro

SF Jimmy Butler

PF Caleb Martin

C Bam Adebayo

PG Jamal Murray

SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

SF Michael Porter Jr.

PF Aaron Gordon

C Nikola Jokic

PPG: J. Butler (21.5)

APG: T. Rozier (6.3)

Reb/G: B. Adebayo (10.5)

PPG: N. Jokic (26.1)

APG: N. Jokic (9.3)

Reb/G: N. Jokic (12.3)

Coaches:

Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (16th season)

Denver Nuggets: Michael Malone (9th season)