Game Time: 7:00 PM ET, Thursday, February 17th, 2022 

Venue:  Spectrum Center, Charlotte, North Carolina

Where to Watch:  NBA League Pass

DraftKings:  Spread:  Heat -4

BetMGM:  Spread:  NL

VegasInsider:  Spread:  Heat -4

WynnBet: Spread:  NL

Heat: 37-21, 1st place Eastern Conference

Hornets: 29-30, 9th place Eastern Conference

An Eastern Conference matchup with tons of intrigue.  The Heat are the top team in the East led by the toughest guy, SF Jimmy Butler. The top teams in the Eastern Conference are not looking quite as tough as the top-3 teams in the Western Conference.  The Eastern Conference has yet to produce a 40-win team and we are 57-59 games into the season.  The argument could be made that the east is simply more competitive with the top teams battling each other to a very fierce finish… And there is some evidence for that.  It is hard to fathom that the Miami Heat, Chicago Bulls, and the Cleveland Cavaliers will be able to take out the Milwaukee Bucks, the Philadelphia 76ers , and the Boston Celtics.  If all star teams were made from those two groups of teams alone…. The Bucks-Sixers-Celtics team would destroy the Heat-Bulls-Cavs team.  Still the standings say otherwise at this point.  Charlotte doesn’t fit into that top team category… they are much improved this season, but still not an upper echelon team.  The reality of Charlotte is they have a great young leader in PG LaMelo Ball and a great young scorer in Miles Bridges supported by Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward… they can win any night… the problem in Charlotte is that they need DEFENSE!  They need it soon.  They will waste the early years of Ball and Bridges if they can not find a Center/Shot-blocker that produces NOW!  They also could use a small forward that plays well on both ends… similar to the Atlanta Hawks De’Andre Hunter or the Phoenix Suns Mikal Bridges…. Don’t hold your breath waiting for those guys… but someone similar is needed desperately.

The Miami Heat have won 6 of their last 10 games.  They have wonderful balance with leading scorer Jimmy Butler, leading assist man Kyle Lowry, and leading rebounder Bam Adebayo.  Everyone has a place on the court to excel… the problem may be that each of those stars don’t lead the team with enough of what they are good at.  Butler scores 21 ppg… actual leading scorers around the league get 6-7 more points than that.  Lowry leads the team with assists with 8… Chris Paul averages 8 apg in small spurts while he is trying to play through injury.  Bam Adebayo averages 10.2 rebounds a game… several boards per game lower than Gobert, Jokic, Capela, Sabonis, and Vucevic.  The combination of the 3 stars AND a squad of quality shooters… is definitely keeping them at #1 in the East… but they routinely lose to other good teams… like the Dallas Mavericks, the Boston Celtics, and the Toronto Raptors (twice) in just the last ten games.  In fact, two different Boston Celtics would be the Heat’s leading scorer if they were traded there.  The Heat are particularly vulnerable to a team with a high end player that outscores or out-rebounds or out dishes them.  The Heat are only 4-6 ATS over their last ten games 

The Charlotte Hornets have only won 2 of their last 10 games.  In just the last ten games the feeling is the final nail has been driven into their coffin and the team is burying their own relevance. With small forward Gordon Hayward on the injury list with sprained ligaments in his left ankle… the team is missing a vital 16.1 ppg and 4.6 rpg.  It was a very reliable pop of production among the starting five… Gordon also was an experienced veteran making good basketball decisions… without him the team has only beaten the pathetic Detroit Pistons…. More missing pieces are power forward Jalen McDaniels and power forward Cody Martin… both guys were 2019 2nd round picks… but their absence has really thinned out the bench.  The Hornets picked up PF Montrezl Harrell at the trade deadline, but he has yet to make an impact.  The Hornets are only 2-7-1 ATS over their last ten games.

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The Heat are 37-21 on the season, but 33-25 ATS.  They have logged 35 Overs and 23 Unders.  They are 18-14 in road games.

The Hornets are 29-30 on the season, but 32-26-1 ATS.  They have notched 29 Overs, 29 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 14-13 in home games.

The Heat are 16th in scoring with 108.9 ppg, 17th in rebounds with 44.6 per game, and 14th in AST/TO ratio with 1.7. They are shooting 13th in FG%, 2nd in 3PT%, and 1st in FT%.  The excel on defense where they rank 5th while allowing a small 104.4 ppg from opponents.

The Hornets are 2nd in scoring with 113.9 ppg, 11th in rebounds with 44.9 per game, and 3rd in AST/TO ratio with 2.0.  They are shooting 16th in FG%, 9th in 3PT%, and 27th in FT%.  The awful free throw numbers are very indicative of a young team that can’t yet handle the spotlight.  On defense is where this high scoring club loses games… They rank 29th while allowing 114.8 ppg from opponents

Our prediction for Thursday, February 17th is….  Heat 118 - Hornets 112

The Heat should win this one and cover.  The Hornets do not have a quality defense… but they certainly don’t have enough on the front line to stop Bam Adebayo from having a huge game.

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Heat 27-16 ATS pff an upset loss.
Charlotte Hornets are 37-28 ATS off back to back losses.
Charlotte Hornets are 94-52 Under when playing with revenge from a double digit home loss.  

Heat: SG Tyler Herro (knee) Quest ** C Dwayne Dedmon (back) Quest ** SG Victor Oladipo (knee) Out ** PF Marcus Morris (neck) Out for season.

Hornets: SF Gordon Hayward (ankle) Out ** PF Cody Martin (ankle) Out ** Jaden McDaniels (ankle) Out

Heat: PF P.J. Tucker, SF Jimmy Butler, C Bam Adebayo, PG Kyle Lowry, SG Duncan Robinson

Hornets: PF Miles Bridges, SF P.J. Washington, C Mason Plumlee, PG LaMelo Ball, SG Terry Rozier

Heat

Points: Jimmy Butler 21.1

Assists: Kyle Lowry 8.0

Rebounds: Bam Adebayo 10.2

Steals: Jimmy Butler 1.8

Blocks: Bam Adebayo 0.6

Hornets

Points: LaMelo Ball 20.2

Assists: LaMelo Ball 7.4

Rebounds: Mason Plumlee 8.1

Steals: LaMelo Ball 1.6

Blocks: Montrezl Harrell 1

Heat: Erik Spoelstra

Hornets: James Borrego