by Chuck Sommers
Sunday, Feb 06, 2022
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Venue: Frank Erwin Center, Austin, TX
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Texas -1.5
BetMGM: Kansas -1.5
Caesars: Texas -1.5
Season record
No. 10 Kansas: 19-3 (8-1 Big 12)
No. 23 Texas: 17-6 (6-4 Big 12)
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Kansas - Texas preview, analysis and prediction
Not the ideal matchup you want when both teams have struggled against the spread in recent weeks, but I like the Kansas Jayhawks to continue their angry, inspired play against the Texas Longhorns on Monday.
The No. 10 Jayhawks have reeled off two impressive wins since getting humbled Jan. 29 against the Kentucky Wildcats. Kansas answered with a tough road win at Iowa State, and then came home to dominate the now-struggling Baylor Bears by 24 points.
The Kansas defense was dominant, holding the Bears to just 29.6 percent shooting from the field and just 7 of 27 from 3-point range.
Christian Braun and Ochai Agbaji each had 18 points (Braun had a double-double with 10 rebounds, while Agbaji had nine) to pace Kansas’ dominant balanced attack.
"I thought we played pretty solid," Kansas coach Bill Self said. "We rebounded it. Our first-shot defense was good, and our ball-screen defense was excellent. I thought it was a good team outing."
The Jayhawks have one more meeting with Baylor toward the end of the season, but their seven wins in eight games continue to be a hot streak that has pushed KU to the top of the Big 12. And Kansas being a dangerous club as March nears is not what the rest of the country wants to see.
Especially an angry Kansas team that was taken to the woodshed two weeks ago by Kentucky, now the No. 5 team in the country.
"It was a lot of fun," Braun said. "We took last Saturday pretty hard. We had to bounce back. We did good job of coming out with more energy than we did last Saturday."
And while Kansas doesn’t need much more warm-up work, it’s going to take a lot to knock off a solid Texas team on the road. The Longhorns are coming off a 22-point win at home against Iowa State on Saturday, a solid bounce-back effort after head coach Chris Beard’s return to Texas Tech resulted in a 13-point loss on Thursday.
But as mentioned before, both teams find themselves struggling against the spread over the last number of weeks. Kansas for example has failed to cover in four of its last five following a win against the spread, and have covered just once in the last five following a straight up win.
Texas has also lost for a five against the spread following an outright victory, but the Longhorn struggles go beyond just the last five. Texas has actually failed to cover in 11 of its last 14 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.
The road team has covered in 12 of the last 16 meetings and Kansas just happens to be playing inspired basketball right now over the last eight games. Given the fact that there is some uncertainty on the point spread, give me Kansas in a double-digit victory. Kansas by 12
Betting trends
The under is 30-53 when Kansas is an underdog since 1997.
Kansas is 16-5 ATS following two straight unders in the past three seasons.
Texas is 7-13 ATS in its past 20 following a win by 15 points or more.
Kansas is 16-5 ATS following two straight unders in the past three seasons.
Texas is 7-13 ATS in its past 20 following a win by 15 points or more.
Projected starting lineup
Kansas:
PG: Dajuan Harris Jr.
SG: Ochai Agbaji
SF: Christian Braun
PF: Jalen Wilson
C: David McCormack
SF: Christian Braun
PF: Jalen Wilson
C: David McCormack
Texas:
PG: Marcus Carr
SG: Courtney Ramey
SF: Timmy Allen
PF: Christian Bishop
C: Tre Mitchell
SF: Timmy Allen
PF: Christian Bishop
C: Tre Mitchell
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
