Illinois Fighting Illini vs Penn State Nittany Lions Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 09/28/2024

Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, September 28, 2024

Venue:  Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA 

Where to Watch:  NBC

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Illinois +18, PSU -18; Over/Under:  47.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Illinois +18, PSU -18; Over/Under:  47.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Illinois +17.5, PSU -17.5; Over/Under:  47.5 points

Illinois Fighting Illini:  4-0 (1-0) (2nd place, Big Ten)

Penn State Nittany Lions:  3-0 (0-0) (8th place, Big Ten)

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Illinois Fighting Illini:  won their last game on the road against the Nebraska Cornhuskers 31-24 in overtime. 

Penn State Nittany Lions:  won their last game at home against the Kent State Golden Flashes 56-0.

Illinois is entering this game with a 4-0 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Nebraska 31-24 in OT. Luke Altmyer was the starting QB and he completed 21/27 passes for 215 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Kaden Feagin led the team in rushing yards with 69. Pat Bryant led the receivers with 74 receiving yards on 5 receptions and 2 TDs. Xavier Scott led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Alec Bryant led the defense in sacks with 2. Torrie Cox Jr. came away with the only interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Penn State is entering this game with a 3-0 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Kent State 56-0. Drew Allar was the starting QB and he completed 17/21 passes for 309 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Nick Singleton led the team in rushing yards with 81. Omari Evans led the receivers with 116 receiving yards on 4 receptions and 1 TD. Anthony Speca led the defense in that game with 2 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Illinois listed as an 18 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Illinois has looked really good in their games this season with their 4-0 record overall and their 1-0 conference record. They have already pulled off some upset wins against Kansas and Nebraska, beating Nebraska last week on the road in their first conference game of the season. Illinois has improved a ton this season and they have a really good defense that can keep them in this game. Meanwhile, Penn State has also looked really good in their games this season with their 3-0 record overall, but they haven't really been tested yet. They won their season opener in West Virginia and they are coming off a home win against Kent State last week, blowing them out of the water, but they did struggle against a better Bowling Green team, only winning that game at home by 1 score and trailing for a lot of the game too. Penn State struggled to get going on offense early on in that game and Illinois has a good enough defense to cause them some problems too. Penn State does have a really good defense to lean on, but Bowling Green was still able to put up 27 points on the road and this Illinois offense has shown they can move the ball efficiently. Illinois may not be able to pull off another upset win on the road here, but they definitely have the talent to keep this game close with the way Penn State has looked at times. The best way to place a bet here is on Illinois to cover the spread in this game. 

Illinois Penn State Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 28, 2024 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Penn State 31 Illinois 21.

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Illinois Fighting Illini: 0-5 ATS off a road win. 0-5 ATS off a road win against a conference rival. 2-8 ATS after playing their last game on the road. 7-1 1H OVER as a road underdog. 9-4 1H OVER when the total is between 42.5 and 49. 13-5 1H OVER against conference opponents.

Penn State Nittany Lions: 20-8 ATS in all lined games. 19-5 ATS as a favorite. 8-2 ATS off a home win by 17 points or more. 6-2 OVER vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. 6-3 OVER vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season. 7-3 OVER versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 yards/play or more.

Illinois Fighting Illini:  C. Goda (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Brown (OLB) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Laughery (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Muragin (OLB) Out - Undisclosed. C. Rusk (TE) Out - Knee.

Penn State Nittany Lions:  A. Rappleyea (TE) Out - Undisclosed. D. Cook (DT) Questionable - Undisclosed. P. Gonzalez (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Jackson (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Cunningham (DT) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Williams (DE) Questionable - Undisclosed. L. Andrews (DT) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Smolik (QB) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Robinson (DE) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Robinson (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Siafa (DT) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Wylie (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. Z. Fisher (DE) Questionable - Undisclosed. X. Gilliam (DT) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Cross (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed.

“I told our players the other day that you control the vibe in the stadium. We did think if we could turn this into a four-quarter game it would play to our advantage. I didn't script it to go to overtime, but I wasn't mad when it did.” - Bret Bielema after his team’s win against Nebraska in their last game. 

“Probably the most important thing is our veteran players played well enough to get a ton of guys in the locker room on the field who deserve to play. That’s going to be great film for us to learn from.” - James Franklin after his team’s win against Kent State in their last game. 

WR Franklin, Zakhari

WR Bryant, Pat 

WR Dixon, Collin 

TE Arkin, Tanner

QB Altmyer, Luke

RB Laughery, Aidan 

WR Wallace III, Harrison 

WR Fleming, Julian 

WR Clifford, Liam

TE Warren, Tyler 

QB Allar, Drew 

RB Singleton, Nicholas

Passing: L. Altmyer (862)

Rushing: K. Feagin (242)

Receiving: P. Bryant (309)

Touchdowns: P. Bryant (6)

Passing: D. Allar (729)

Rushing: N. Singleton (314)

Receiving: T. Warren (226)

Touchdowns: N. Singleton (4)

Coaches:

Illinois Fighting Illini: Bret Bielema (4th season)

Penn State Nittany Lions: James Franklin (11th season)