by James Q
Thursday, Sep 23, 2021Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs New Mexico State Aggies Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/25/2021
Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Saturday, September 25th, 2021
Venue: Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, New Mexico
Where to Watch: FLOF…. Just streaming
Opening NCAAF Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Spread: Hawaii -17: O/U: 63
BetMGM: Spread: Hawaii -17: O/U: 62
Caesars: Spread: Hawaii -17: O/U: 62
Season Record
Hawaii: 1-3 (MW West)
New Mexico State: 1-3 (independent)
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Hawaii vs New Mexico Preview and Analysis.
Hawaii opened their season a week before most. They played in “week zero” against the UCLA Bruins and lost BIG 44-10. Game 2 brought the lone win against the Portland State Vikings 49-35. Then came the Oregon State Beavers and another loss 45-27. Then the San Jose State Spartans came to Hawaii and beat the Warriors in a close game 17-13. Hawaii is always a fun team. They usually field an aggressive passing game and have a roster filled with big kids with wonderful Samoan names… this year may be a struggle because Covid-19 shutdowns affected travel to and from the small island state specifically worse than in the contiguous 48. They didn’t just miss a season, they also missed recruiting, they missed campus visits, they missed immediacy that hurt the recruiting in a way that will take them a couple years to recover.
New Mexico State has played a lot of extra games in 2021. As an independent school they scheduled some spring games to make up for missing 2020. They played a game in February and a game in march in 2021 that do not count for the 2021 college football season. So, in the official 2021 season NMS is 1-3. They also played in “week zero” where they got stomped by UTEP 30-3. Then they played San Diego State and got thumped 28-10. Then the battle of New Mexico paired the Aggies with the Lobos and NMS lost 34-25. At 0-3 they were happy to face the also struggling South Carolina State Bulldogs. NM State got the win 43-35… or to put it another way NM State gave up 35 points to a bad team.
Offensive Analysis
Hawaii is scoring 24.8 ppg while getting 416.3 ypg. QB Chevan Cordeiro has a big arm and has used it to throw 6 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. All those turnovers are a surefire way to find a losing record. RB Dae Dae Hunter is rushing for 5.2 yards per carry, he needs more carries. WR Nick Mardner leads the team in yards (339) with help from WR Calvin Turner Jr (294)... and maybe the reason Dae Dae doesn’t get enough carries is because he also has 143 yards receiving. Hawaii is a passing team, but they need to balance that passing until Chevan can prove he will cut down on the interceptions.
The New Mexico State offense ranks outside of the top 100 offenses in CFB, but they are 12th in penalty yardage given up… 271 yards on 27 penalties. Not very disciplined. QB Dino Maldonado doesn’t have a picture on the ESPN stat page but he does have 4 TD and 2 INT. RB Juwaun Price is averaging only 3.8 yards per carry. WR Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda leads the team in receiving yards while only having 8 receptions… To be fair, the ball is spread around, 12 different guys have had catches for positive yardage. The season will reveal whether New Mexico State has either a total lack of discipline or just not much talent.
Defensive Analysis
Defense is a problem for both of these squads. Hawaii ranks 104 on defense in the FBS. They have given up 19 TDs and 429.5 yards per game. New Mexico State’s defense is ranked 111, giving up 16 TDs and 444.5 yards per game. A passing glance at these numbers makes them look close… 104 vs 111?... What's the difference?.. Strength of opponent. Hawaii is better. While they both lack sacks and other key metrics to compare them, New Mexico State players give up more yards per play and more yards to penalties to lesser opponents.
Rainbow Warriors vs Aggies Prediction
Our prediction for Saturday, September 25th is… Hawaii 42 - New Mexico State 17
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. MWC
Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall
Rainbow Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall
Rainbow Warriors are 15-37 ATS vs. a team with a losing record
Hawaii and its opponents have combined for 62.5 points or more just 1 time this season.
New Mexico State's games have gone over 62.5 points just once this season.
Players to Watch
Hawaii: DL Pita Tonga. That is a Hawaiin football name! Get me a Jersey and tell me how he does later. Go Pita!!
Aggies: QB Dino Maldonado. If New Mexico State can move the ball effectively against Hawaii then we have a game. If Dino throws multiple interceptions Hawaii will blow them out.
Starting Lineups
Hawaii: QB Chevan Cordeiro, RB Dae Dae Hunter, WR Calvin Turner Jr, TE Caleb Phillips, WR Nick Mardner, WR Jared Smart
New Mexico State: QB Dino Maldonado, RB O’Maury Samuels, WR Jared Wyatt, WR Isaiah Garcia-Cataneda, WR Cole Harrity, TE Thomaz Whitford
Statistical Leaders
Hawaii:
Passing: Chevan Cordeiro 1,133
Rushing: Dae Dae Hunter 212
Receiving: Nick Marder 339
Tackles: Darius Muasau 23
Interceptions: Pita Tonga 1
Aggies:
Passing: Dino Maldonado 513 yards
Rushing: Juwaun Price 156
Receiving: I. Garcia-Castaneda 191 yards
Tackles: Joshua Ferguson 30
Interceptions: D.J. McCullough 2
Coaches:
Hawaii: Todd Graham
New Mexico State: Doug Martin
Weather Forecast
Cloudy. 83*. Wind 6mph. You need to keep an eye out for scorpions and yes Road Runners are real. They are birds that run.
James Q
About the Author:
James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.
