Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 3/3/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Wednesday, Mar 02, 2022
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Where to watch: Bally Sports Southwest-Dallas, NBC Sports Bay Area

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Season record
Warriors: 43-19
Mavericks: 37-25

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Warriors - Mavericks preview and analysis


Warriors analysis


I don't think it's panic time for the Golden State Warriors yet. There's still plenty of basketball to play and there's still the factor of integrating Klay Thompson to full-time workouts, no restrictions, etc.

But the Warriors have hit a bit of a struggle bug at the moment. Golden State has lost six of eight and one of those losses is also against their opponents Thursday in what was an ungodly collapse against Dallas. But following that, the Warriors lost 129-114 on Tuesday against the Minnesota Timberwolves despite Steph Curry going for 34 points.

Despite that team-high 34 points, Curry was just 5 of 16 from 3-point range and went 10 of 24 from the floor overall. Andrew Wiggins, who somehow found his way to be an All-Star starter this season, went 5 of 13 for 12 points and Gary Payton II had 14 points.

"Nights like tonight where you just don't play a good brand of basketball defensively to give yourself a chance to win on the road against a team that you allow to have life all night, you're not going to win a lot of games that way," Curry said.

In an uncharacteristic defensive night from the Warriors, they allowed 53 percent shooting to the Timberwolves and also allowed the home team to go 16 of 40 from 3-point range. Golden State, meanwhile, went just 13 of 45 from 3-point range and 19 of 22 from the free-throw line.

It's not often I can look at the Warriors and believe that there's a slim chance that the same team can beat a team that lost to them a few days prior, but here we are.

Mavericks analysis


In the 60 years I've been on this Earth, I've never in my life felt more compelled to enjoy the Dallas Mavericks more than I do right now, and man I am having the best possible time here.

Sometimes there is just a belief that teams have this aura about them, that they are better than they ever could be perceived. And in the case of the Mavs, has there ever been this much excitement since the mid 2000s? Because this honestly feels like a team that could actually go places.

Dallas has won eight of its last 10 and are sitting 12 games above .500 after the Mavs defeated the Los Angeles Lakers 109-104 on Tuesday night and continued this strong play since trading Kristaps Porzingis to the Washington Wizards.

That didn't come with Dallas having a big lead during the game but only won by five. But you know what? I'll take it. Dallas doesn't beat the Lakers very often, and when it happens, it's a collection of glorious purpose that brings us back to 2011. Luka Doncic finished with 25 points, eight rebounds and five assists and one hell of a putback dunk on Dwight Howard that needs to be put in the Louvre.

"At halftime we told them, ‘They're coming. LeBron is coming,'" Dallas coach Jason Kidd said. "In the third quarter, LeBron put on a show, but we didn't lose our composure. That's one of the things we've gotten better at, and in the fourth quarter we got back to what we've done at Golden State. We held them to 17 points, and that's pretty good."

Spencer Dinwiddie had 14 points and nine assists in another strong showing since he started wearing a Dallas jersey. Davis Bertans missed all four of his shots in 10 minutes, which is clearly going to take time for him to start making shots. But it's such a good thing to watch Dinwiddie paying off in all dividends. Another ball-handler with Luka. Good lord what a concept.

Prediction


Well, this is going to be a fun game nevertheless. Golden State let one get away the other night after that improbable run the Mavs went on in the come-from-behind victory. But I think the way things are looking right now, with the Mavs at home, there's this belief in this team that I haven't felt in a long time. Can you imagine the Mavs reeling off two straight wins over the Warriors in a week? Much like the whole situation with the Lakers, the time-space continuum would just explode. I am in favor of such chaos. Make it so. Mavs by 7

Betting trends


The Warriors are 23-8 ATS off consecutive upset losses as a favorite.

The Mavericks are 9-15 ATS as a home dog.

The Mavs are 20-8 ATS after playing a road game this season.

Projected starting lineup


Warriors:
PG: Steph Curry
SG: Gary Payton II
SF: Klay Thompson
PF: Andrew Wiggins
C: Kevon Looney

Mavericks:
PG: Luka Doncic
SG: Jalen Brunson
SF: Reggie Bullock
PF: Dorian Finney-Smith
C: Dwight Powell

Key injuries


Warriors: Andre Iguodala (out), Draymond Green (out), Nemanja Bjelica (day-to-day), James Wiseman (out)

Mavericks: Tim Hardaway Jr. (out), Frank Ntilikina (questionable), Trey Burke (questionable), Marquese Chriss (out)

Statistical leaders


Warriors:
Points: Steph Curry -- 25.8
Rebounds: Kevon Looney -- 7.6
Assists: Steph Curry -- 6.5

Mavericks:
Points: Luka Doncic -- 27.5
Rebounds: Luka Doncic -- 9.1
Assists: Luka Doncic -- 8.8

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert basketball picks today. And if you enjoyed this Golden State Warriors - Dallas Mavericks prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NBA projections and previews.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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