by Rod Pearson
Wednesday, Oct 25, 2023
Game Time: 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, October 28, 2023
Venue: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Georgia -14.5, Florida +14.5; Over/Under: 47 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Georgia -14.5, Florida +14.5; Over/Under: 47 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Georgia -14.5, Florida +14.5; Over/Under: 47.5 points
Season Record
Georgia Bulldogs: 7-0 (4-0) (1st place, SEC East)
Florida Gators: 5-2 (3-1) (3rd place, SEC East)
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Recent Form
Georgia Bulldogs: won their last game on the road against the Vanderbilt Commodores 37-20.
Florida Gators: won their last game on the road against the South Carolina Gamecocks 41-39.
Georgia Bulldogs vs Florida Gators Preview and Analysis
Georgia is entering this game with a 7-0 record overall and they have a 4-0 record in their conference games too. They are 5-0 in their home games, 2-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Vanderbilt 37-20. Carson Beck was the starting QB and he completed 29/39 passes for 261 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Daijun Edwards led the team in rushing yards with 146 and 1 TD. Dominic Lovett led the receivers with 72 receiving yards on 9 receptions and 1 TD. Smael Mondon Jr. led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Smael Mondon Jr. led the defense in sacks with 1. Tykee Smith came away with the only interception for them in that game.
Florida is entering this game with a 5-2 record overall and they have a 3-1 record in their conference games too. They are 4-0 in their home games, 1-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against South Carolina 41-39. Graham Mertz was the starting QB and he completed 30/48 passes for 423 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Montrell Johnson led the team in rushing yards with 50. Ricky Pearsall led the receivers with 166 receiving yards on 10 receptions and 1 TD. Jaydon Hill led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while Princely Umanmielen led the defense in sacks with 1. Miguel Mitchell came away with the only interception for them in that game.
Georgia vs Florida Prediction
The current betting odds have Florida listed as a 14.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Florida has looked a lot better than expected this season with their 5-2 record overall and their 3-1 conference record. Graham Mertz has played well in this offense and their defense has also been really good in their games. Now they take on one of the best teams in the country with Georgia coming in at 7-0 overall and with a 4-0 conference record. Georgia may be 7-0 this season but they haven't looked like the same team that won back-to-back championships as their offense has struggled to put up points and blow out teams while their defense has also been giving up a lot more points. Florida has a really good defense that is going to be able to hold this Georgia offense that is also really banged up and Florida is going to bring their best effort here for the best team in the country with a chance to knock them off and go to the SEC Championship themselves. Florida is going to keep this game close enough with their defense and Georgia is going to be on upset alert in this game. The best way to place a bet here is on Florida to cover the spread in this game.
Georgia Florida Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 28, 2023 (3:30 pm ET start time) is Georgia 27 Florida 24.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Georgia Bulldogs: 9-1 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. 27-16 ATS as a neutral field favorite. 10-4 ATS off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite. 27-16 UNDER as a neutral field favorite. 11-6 UNDER after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points.
Florida Gators: 13-20 ATS in all games. 6-15 ATS after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game. 5-11 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins. 8-2 UNDER after scoring 37 points or more last game. 12-5 UNDER after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.
Key Injuries
Georgia Bulldogs: T. Ingram-Dawkins (DL) Mid Nov - Foot. E. Lightsey (LB) Late Nov - Back. R. Robinson II (RB) Prob Sat - Ankle. K. Milton (RB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. B. Bowers (TE) Late Nov - Ankle. A. Mims (OL) Out indefinitely - Ankle. B. Robinson (RB) out for season - Knee.
Florida Gators: C. Douglas (WR) Mid Nov - Leg. D. Zanders (TE) Ques Sat - Lower Body. K. Wilson (S) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. K. Eguakun (OL) Ques Sat - Lower Body. A. Jean (WR) Ques Sat - Lower Body. J. Odom (TE) Ques Sat - Upper Body. C. Jones (OL) out for season - Redshirt. K. Zipperer (TE) Out indefinitely - Knee. J. Miller III (QB) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. T. Chiaokhiao-Bowman (WR) Out indefinitely - Lower Body. C. Carroll (RB) out for season - Knee. J. Boone (DL) out for season - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“I’ve never had a bye week that came at the wrong time.” - Kirby Smart after his team’s win against Vandy in their last game.
“We came here today to prove something. What a way to win a ballgame.” - Billy Napier after his team’s win against South Carolina in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Georgia Bulldogs
WR Rosemy-Jacksaint, Marcus
WR McConkey, Ladd
WR Lovett, Dominic
TE Bowers, Brock
QB Beck, Carson
RB Edwards, Daijun
Florida Gators
WR Jackson, Kahleil
WR Wilson III, Eugene
WR Pearsall, Ricky
TE Hansen, Hayden
TE Boardingham, Arlis
QB Mertz, Graham
RB Johnson Jr., Montrell
Statistical Leaders
Georgia Bulldogs
Passing: C. Beck (2147)
Rushing: D. Edwards (460)
Receiving: B. Bowers (566)
Touchdowns: D. Edwards (6)
Florida Gators
Passing: G. Mertz (1872)
Rushing: M. Johnson Jr. (438)
Receiving: R. Pearsall (624)
Touchdowns: M. Johnson Jr. (5)
Coaches:
Georgia Bulldogs: Kirby Smart (8th season)
Florida Gators: Billy Napier (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
