by Chuck Sommers
Sunday, Sep 04, 2022
Game time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Where to watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: LSU -3.5, total 49.5
FanDuel: LSU -3.5 total 49.5
BetMGM: LSU -3, total 50
Caesars: LSU -3. total 50.5
Season record
Florida State: 1-0
LSU: 6-7 (3-5 SEC) in 2021, lost Texas Bowl to Kansas State
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Florida State - LSU preview, analysis and prediction
It might be the most important regime switch since Nick Saban left LSU. Brian Kelly enters Baton Rouge in hopes of turning around a program that has struggled mightily since winning the national championship a couple of years ago.
And there can’t be any bigger of a stage than LSU hosting the Florida State Seminoles inside the Superdome on Sunday night. LSU calls Kelly, the former Notre Dame coach, the “most accomplished hire in LSU history.” Not a bad moniker to start your tenure off with, but it’s going to be a pressurized situation for Kelly to get LSU back to national prominence while the likes of Georgia and Alabama are dominating things in the SEC at the moment.
This is the first meeting between the two schools since 1991. At that time, Florida State was the No. 1 ranked team in the time and the schools have gone on to win a combined six national titles since that last meeting. But that national success was far and few between from LSU last season, a group that Kelly inherits after a difficult run in 2021.
The Tigers reached a bowl game last year, but at the expense of going 6-7 and losing in the Texas Bowl. LSU went on to lose 42-20 to Kansas State, which seems like a perfect way to cap off a disappointing season. But when you go through LSU’s 2021 slate with a comb, not all was disappointing. LSU lost five games to ranked opponents, all within conference play, and three of them were decided by one score.
If you think about it, a win against Alabama in Tuscaloosa, or a win over Auburn at the top-25 at the time could’ve changed things drastically within not just LSU’s season, but within the realm of the SEC.
Perhaps the hire of Kelly is that moment of clarity LSU needs to win those close games. The hope is that Kelly can lead that kind of production that has been lacking with an offense that might be considered one of the best in the country. Kelly hasn’t named a starting quarterback yet, but the expectation is Arizona State transfer Jayden Daniels will be the guy over Garrett Nussmeier. Daniels had some success under Herm Edwards in Tempe, but that program is going under its own transition phase that doesn’t seem to make sense.
Whomever the LSU quarterback is, it will be a tough challenge going against what’s expected to be a strong Florida State front. Head coach Mike Norvell has always been known to have a strong front that can get to the quarterback, and that shouldn’t be any different here. The Seminoles are coming off a 47-7 win over Duquesne that opened their season last week.
But even off to a 1-0 start, there’s some serious trepidation in thinking if Florida State is actually on the rebound after a disappointing season in 2021. The Seminoles started 0-4 and went 5-3 down the stretch, but trying to believe in them against much more difficult opponents isn’t a good play.
Against the spread, Florida State hasn’t been a good play in recent memory. In September games the past three years, Florida State is 1-5. The ‘Noles are also 88-95 in the past 30 years against the spread after playing a game at home. That line being a field goal doesn’t bode well for Florida State.
Prediction
With this being the most important game LSU will have as a program in recent memory, I can’t see LSU losing. This may be a home game, but LSU is 17-10 in its last 27 ATS as a favorite at a neutral site. I don’t see the Tigers letting this one get away. LSU wins by 14
Betting trends
Florida State is 16-34 ATS in the first two weeks of the season since 1992.
Florida State is 75-68 ATS after allowing 14 points or less in the previous game since 1992.
LSU is 6-7 ATS as a favorite the past three seasons.
Statistical leaders
Florida State
Passing: Jordan Travis -- 207 yards
Rushing: TreShaun Ward -- 127 yards, 2 TD
Receiving: Kentron Poitier -- 84 yards
Defense: Jared Verse -- 1 sack
LSU (2021)
Passing: Max Johnson -- 2,815 yards, 27 TD, 6 INT
Rushing: Tyrion Davis-Price -- 1,003 yards, 6 TD
Receiving: Kayshon Boutte -- 509 yards, 9 TD
Defense: Damone Clark -- 136 tackles, 5.5 sacks
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
