Florida Gators vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 02/11/2025

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Tuesday, February 11, 2025

Venue:  Humphrey Coliseum, Starkville, MS

Where to Watch:  ESPN2

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Florida -4, MS State +4; Over/Under:  151.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Florida -4, MS State +4; Over/Under:  151.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Florida -4, MS State +4; Over/Under:  151.5 points

Florida Gators:  20-3 (7-3) (3rd place, SEC)

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  17-6 (5-5) (9th place, SEC)

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Florida Gators:  4-1  last 5

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  2-3  last 5

Florida is entering this game with a 20-3 record overall, a 7-3 record in conference games, and they are 4-2 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Auburn Tigers in their last game. Walter Clayton Jr. led the team in points per game in that game with 19 while Alex Condon was next on the team with 17. Walter Clayton Jr. led the team in assists with 9 in that game while Alex Condon led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 48.4% from the field, 39.4% from 3-point range, and 83.3% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 83.7 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 66.4 PPG against them. Florida has an ATS record of 16-7 this season and their O/U record is 9-14.

Mississippi State is entering this game with a 17-6 record overall, a 5-5 conference record, and they are 8-3 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Georgia Bulldogs in their last game. Josh Hubbard led the team in points in that game with 16 while KeShawn Murphy was next on the team with 14. Cameron Matthews and Josh Hubbard each led the team in assists with 6 in that game while KeShawn Murphy led the team in rebounds with 8. They were 55.2% from the field, 30% from 3-point range, and 33.3% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 79.7 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 71.3 PPG against them. Mississippi State has an ATS record of 10-13 this season and their O/U record is 13-10.

The current betting odds have Florida listed as a 4 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Florida has looked great in their games this season with their 20-3 record overall and their 7-3 conference record which has them right near the top of the SEC. They have been a good road team so far with their 4-2 road record too. Meanwhile, Mississippi State has looked good in their games this season with their 17-6 record overall, but their 5-5 conference record has them right in the middle of the SEC. They have looked good on their home court this year with their 8-3 home record, but they have still lost 3 games at home this season and have shown some weakness there. They are ranked in the top 25 and have been for a lot of the season, but lately they have been slipping with their 2-3 record in their last 5 games. They are coming off a nice road win over Georgia in their last one, but only won that game by 1 point in a tight one. They have been beating up on bad teams lately, but they did lose their last 2 home games to Alabama and Missouri as they have struggled against stronger opponents. Florida has looked really good lately with 2 wins in a row now, going 4-1 in their last 5 games too, and now they are coming off a road win over Auburn in their last game who has looked like the best team in the nation all season. That was a very impressive win for Florida on the road by 9 points and they are only going to carry that momentum into this one against a weaker opponent. The best way to place a bet here is on Florida to cover the spread in this game. 

Florida Mississippi State Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Tuesday, February 11, 2025 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Florida 89 Mississippi State 82.

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Florida Gators: 6-2 ATS as a road favorite of 6 points or less or pick. 7-1 ATS off a road win against a conference rival. 14-3 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game. 12-5 OVER versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game. 34-25 OVER after 1 or more consecutive wins.

Mississippi State Bulldogs: 3-8 ATS off a road win. 5-15 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game. 16-23 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game. 4-1 OVER as a home underdog of 6 points or less or pick. 7-3 OVER when the total is 150 to 159.5.

Florida Gators:  A. Martin (G) Questionable - Undisclosed. O. Rioux (C) Out - Redshirt. M. Handlogten (C) Out - Redshirt.

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  K. Clary (G) Out - Leg.

“He has played like the best player in America to this point. He deserves that recognition.” - Todd Golden on Johni Broome after his team’s win against Auburn in their last game. 

"It was quite the game. We survived a lot. We survived 6 of 18 from the free throw line. Asa Newell is a heck of a player but I don't know if he's made more than three (treys) in a game all year long and he was 3-for-4. And Blue Cain banks one in." - Chris Jans after his team’s win against UGA in their last game. 

R. Chinyelu 

W. Clayton 

A. Condon 

A. Martin 

W. Richard

C. Harris 

J. Hubbard 

C. Matthews 

R. Melendez 

M. Nwoko

PPG: W. Clayton (17.5)

APG: W. Clayton (4)

Reb/G: A. Condon (8.1)

PPG: J. Hubbard (17.5)

APG: C. Matthews (4)

Reb/G: K. Murphy (7.3)

Coaches:

Florida Gators: Todd Golden (3rd season)

Mississippi State Bulldogs: Chris Jans (3rd season)