by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Jun 02, 2022Western Conference Final, Game 2 – Avalanche lead 1-0
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Venue: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Where to watch: TNT, SN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Avalanche -190, Oilers +155
BetMGM: Avalanche -175, Oilers +145
Caesars: NL
Al McMordie has reeled off a strong 20-8-0 run over the last month in the NHL. The Stanley Cup Playoffs are down to the Final Four. The last teams standing are high-octane, can score a lot of goals, and at least two of them have some great goaltending. Buckle up, it’s going to be a fun time to finish up. You need to be tuned in here to find out all the expert analysis. Catch Al’s plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.
Oilers - Avalanche preview and analysis
Goaltending. An art, a position, where it is designed for the man who is in the crease to stop the pucks. As Steve Dangle would heartily say, if you’re a goaltender, tend the goal. Tending the goal was a lost art in Game 1 of the Western Conference Final between the Edmonton Oilers and Colorado Avalanche, and quite honestly not a single soul should be surprised in how this transpired.
But 14 goals combined? With the winner getting eight? I think that was a little extreme to a certain degree. Two goals in 36 seconds, all the hoopla surrounding it, but all that matters is the win. And the Avalanche taking a 1-0 series lead off the bonkers Game 1 that we got is truly a good sign for the Avalanche.
And also might be a good sign for the Oilers, as well.
Here’s the thing: We know how important it is to score eight goals in a game. You’re likely going to win most games if you score eight times, which is exactly what happened. The Avalanche put an eight spot on the shoddiest goaltending you’re going to see in these playoffs. That was expected, and the Avalanche did what needed to be done.
"I liked our checking game for the most part. We were unfortunate on a couple plays," Colorado coach Jared Bednar said. "It felt like when we made mistakes, they capitalized on them. We have to make less mistakes, but we did get unfortunate on a couple goals, in my opinion."
And if you score eight goals, more times than none you’re going to get to the position of a win in general. Again, that’s what happened with Colorado. And even in more times than none, the opponent that gives up eight is allowed to give up a few themselves. But no one said that had to come at the expense of Darcy Kuemper getting hurt and having Pavel Francouz to replace him, though.
And if you’re looking for an opening, there it is. The Oilers now go into Game 2 with Colorado’s starting goalie on the sidelines, and Francouz will now have to be tasked with not being any worse than Smith … or Mikko Koskinen should things go completely haywire.
"We scored six goals on their goaltending tandem tonight in their building. That should be enough to win the game," Edmonton coach Jay Woodcroft said. "For me, there are things we have to do in terms of preventing. Sometimes I think it's not about what you get, it's about what you've given up, and we gave up far too much tonight."
Game 1 was the clear-cut directive, however, that this series is wide open. Even beyond the goalie situation itself, the Oilers are locked in offensively with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl humming the way that they are. But Game 2 is wide open, and if you’re Edmonton, you have to feel beyond good if you get a split in Colorado.
Prediction
Which is what I think will happen. Francouz has played playoff games before. They’ve trusted him in this kind of situation, but against a red-hot McDavid, I can’t envision this will end well. I do expect Smith to have a short leash, but do well enough to win Edmonton a winnable game. Oilers win 5-4
Betting trends
Oilers are 3-0 when trailing in a series this postseason.
Oilers are 30-19 after a road loss the past three seasons.
Avalanche are 12-5 the past three seasons when leading a series.
Avalanche are 58-20 off a home win the past three seasons.
Projected lines
Oilers:
Evander Kane -- Connor McDavid -- Leon Draisaitl
Zach Hyman -- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins -- Jesse Puljujarvi
Warren Foegele -- Ryan McLeod -- Kailer Yamamoto
Josh Archibald -- Derek Ryan -- Zack Kassian
Darnell Nurse -- Cody Ceci
Duncan Keith -- Evan Bouchard
Brett Kulak -- Tyson Barrie
Mike Smith
Avalanche:
Gabriel Landeskog -- Nathan MacKinnon -- Artturi Lehkonen
Valeri Nichushkin -- Nazem Kadri -- Mikko Rantanen
Andre Burakovsky -- J.T. Compher -- Nicolas Aube-Kubel
Logan O'Connor -- Darren Helm -- Andrew Cogliano
Devon Toews -- Cale Makar
Jack Johnson -- Josh Manson
Bowen Byram -- Erik Johnson
Pavel Francouz
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
