Duke Blue Devils vs North Carolina Tar Heels Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 03/08/2025

Game Time: 6:30 pm ET, Saturday, March 8, 2025

Venue:  Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Duke -11.5, UNC +11.5; Over/Under:  157.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Duke -11.5, UNC +11.5; Over/Under:  157.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Duke -11.5, UNC +11.5; Over/Under:  157.5 points

Duke Blue Devils:  27-3 (18-1) (1st place, ACC)

North Carolina Tar Heels:  20-11 (13-6) (5th place, ACC)

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Duke Blue Devils:  5-0  last 5

North Carolina Tar Heels:  5-0  last 5

Duke is entering this game with a 27-3 record overall, an 18-1 record in conference games, and they are 9-1 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons in their last game. Cooper Flagg led the team in points in that game with 28 while Kon Knueppel was next on the team with 17. Cooper Flagg led the team in assists with 7 in that game while Khaman Maluach led the team in rebounds with 14. They were 47.2% from the field, 35.9% from 3-point range, and 84.6% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 83.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 61.1 PPG against them. Duke has an ATS record of 20-10 this season and their O/U record is 16-14.

North Carolina is entering this game with a 20-11 record overall, a 13-6 conference record, and they are 12-2 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Virginia Tech Hokies in their last game. Ian Jackson led the team in points in that game with 19 while Seth Trimble was next on the team with 17. Elliot Cadeau led the team in assists with 12 in that game while Ven-Allen Lubin led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 58.9% from the field, 53.6% from 3-point range, and 83.3% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 82.1 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 75.9 PPG against them. North Carolina has an ATS record of 12-18-1 this season and their O/U record is 18-13.

The current betting odds have Duke listed as an 11.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Duke has looked great in their games this season with their 27-3 record overall and their 18-1 conference record which has them right at the top of the ACC. They are ranked like one of the best teams in the nation and they have also been a good road team with their 9-1 road record this season. Meanwhile, North Carolina has looked good in their games this season with their 20-11 record overall and their 13-6 conference record which has them in the top half of the ACC. They have looked really good on their home court too with their 12-2 home record, but they have not been having the season they wanted. UNC has been rolling lately as they are starting to get hot at the right time and they have a lot of momentum on their side with 6 wins in a row now, but this is still a team that is on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament and has to fight in every game. They have been rolling over teams lately with a lot of their wins coming by double digits, but their last loss was also a double digit loss to one of the top teams in the ACC. There is still a big gap between UNC and the top of the ACC, and this is a game that Duke would love to deliver a big blow to UNC's NCAA Tournament hopes. Duke has also been rolling in their games lately with 7 wins in a row now and ever since they lost their only game in the conference, they have also been rolling over teams by double digits. They are coming off another huge win over Wake Forest in their last game and as good as UNC has been lately, they still don't have the talent to keep this game close. They already lost to Duke by 17 points earlier this season and this game won't be any different since Duke has been at their best over the last few weeks. The best way to place a bet here is on Duke to cover the spread in this game. 

Duke North Carolina Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Saturday, March 8, 2025 (6:30 pm ET start time) is Duke 90 UNC 72.

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Duke Blue Devils: 9-5 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. 19-8 ATS off a home win against a conference rival. 31-18 ATS after playing a home game. 16-8 UNDER as a road favorite or pick. 18-4 UNDER after playing 2 consecutive home games. 21-13 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%).

North Carolina Tar Heels: 4-13 ATS as an underdog. 7-13 ATS in a home game where the total is 150 to 159.5. 5-11 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 16 assists/game or more. 27-15 UNDER off a win against a conference rival. 7-3 UNDER at home versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game. 6-3 UNDER at home after a win by 15 points or more. 

Duke Blue Devils:  M. Brown (F) Questionable - Shoulder.

North Carolina Tar Heels:  None.

"It's been obvious to me, I think Hubert [Davis] and their staff have done a great job of adapting and continuing to evolve as a team. Obviously, they're playing bigger, lineup changes, but they're ultimately playing the same guys. I think the biggest thing that's different is just the confidence level that they're playing with, the aggressiveness, the cohesiveness. They're on the biggest winning streak for the season. They're scoring over 80 points a game. The defensive challenge for us is going to be a big challenge. And then, playing at home, they play a fast pace, and even faster the last couple of weeks. Great respect for them and everything they've done. I really feel they're playing the best basketball that they've been playing all year." - Jon Scheyer on this upcoming game against UNC in their regular season finale.

"I necessarily wouldn't point to just one thing. I think there's a number of things that we've improved on. Maybe the consistency on both ends, just the consistency of doing the little things on the defensive end, in terms of boxing out, rebounding, trying to defend without fouling, protecting the paint offensively, doing a better job taking care of the basketball, getting to the offensive glass, not taking bad shots and getting good shots. And I think that's contributed to us scoring really well as of late. Just the consistency of doing the things that allow you to be successful, I think we're doing them consistently more." - Hubert Davis on his team’s upcoming game against Duke in their regular season finale. 

C. Flagg 

S. James 

K. Knueppel 

K. Maluach 

T. Proctor

E. Cadeau 

R. Davis 

I. Jackson 

D. Powell 

J. Washington

PPG: C. Flagg (19.6)

APG: C. Flagg (4.2)

Reb/G: C. Flagg (7.5)

PPG: R. Davis (17.2)

APG: E. Cadeau (6.1)

Reb/G: S. Trimble (5.3)

Coaches:

Duke Blue Devils: Jon Scheyer (3rd season)

North Carolina Tar Heels: Hubert Davis (4th season)